Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 092040
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
440 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

A VERY QUIET SHORT TERM IS IN STORE ACROSS UPPER MI WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOL AND CLEAR
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SOME WELL-INLAND LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
FALLING TO THE UPPER 30S.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...A CLUSTER OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
PIVOTING AROUND SOUTHERN JAMES BAY WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL OF THE WAVES HAVE PASSED OVER THE CWA DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE LAST ONE APPROACHING FROM JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ONLY CLIP EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND EASTERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF SHORTWAVES. ONGOING ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
THUS DIMINISH ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL UPPER MI AND ALONG LAKE MI
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DEEPER MOISTURE
EXITS TO THE EAST. A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER FORMING OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND NORTHERN LOWER MI LATE
TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES...PWAT VALUES LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES
INLAND...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...WITH 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND EVEN
SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER INITIAL DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST...RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OTHER THAN SOME
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIN CIRRUS
ACROSS THE WEST...SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES...AND
SHOULD PUSH FARTHEST INLAND ALONG LAKE MI.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

AS WE APPROACH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL WARMEST PERIOD OF THE YEAR...THE
PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM WILL TRANSITION TO ONE REMINISCENT OF
THE PATTERN THAT DOMINATED DURING OUR RECORD COLD WINTER/EARLY
SPRING 2013/2014. LED BY THE ECWMF...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS
LOCKED ONTO THIS VERY ANOMALOUS MID JULY PATTERN THAT WILL BE
EVOLVING. AMPLIFICATION WILL GET UNDERWAY FRI AS A SHARP RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER WRN NAMERICA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER WRN CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (500MB HEIGHTS
RISE TO 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE LONG TERM EARLY/MID JULY
AVG)...A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW (EQUALLY ANOMALOUS HEIGHTS ON THE BLO
AVG SIDE) WILL DEVELOP JUST W OF HUDSON BAY AND THEN BE FORCED SSE
INTO THE UPPER LAKES/NRN ONTARIO MON/TUE. 500MB HEIGHTS OVER UPPER
MI WILL BE 2.5-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO AVG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SUGGESTING THIS WILL BE A VERY UNUSUAL AND SIGNIFICANT OR
RECORD BREAKING EVENT FOR MID JULY. 850MB TEMP ANOMALIES OVER THE
UPPER LAKES ARE PROGGED TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY...SO THAT GIVES AN IDEA OF HOW COOL THE WEATHER WILL BE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXACTLY HOW COLD IT WILL BE DURING THE DAYLIGHT AND
NIGHTTIME HRS WILL HINGE STRONGLY ON CLOUD COVER AND PCPN. TROF WILL
SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NE MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR
SLOW/STEADY WARMING AFTER THE EARLY WEEK CHILL. HOWEVER...WITH ERN
NAMERICA TROFFING LINGERING...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BLO NORMAL
DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THE TROF
AMPLIFICATION...WARMER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRI THRU SUN WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. AS FOR PCPN...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
FREQUENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR PCPN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRI. A COUPLE
OF COLD FRONTS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI NIGHT/SAT
AND THEN SUN NIGHT WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES OF SHRA. WITH MID LEVEL
LOW OVER THE AREA OR IN THE VCNTY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHRA COULD OCCUR
AT ANYTIME DEPENDING ON ANY SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. EVEN
IN THE ABSENCE OF SHORTWAVES...DAYTIME HEATING UNDER CHILLY/CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL LIKELY GENERATE SHRA...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR.

BEGINNING THU NIGHT...WAA REGIME WILL BE STRENGTHENING INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU SRN CANADA.
WITH INSTABILITY WELL TO THE W AND WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED W
AND NW OF THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN THU NIGHT.

AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK INSTABILITY SPREAD INTO UPPER MI FRI
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THERE WILL BE A CHC OF SHRA AND
POSSIBLY TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE W HALF. VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
(MLCAPE LESS THAN 300J/KG) WILL PRECLUDE ANY RISK OF SVR STORMS.

SHRA/POSSIBLE TSRA CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI
FRI NIGHT/SAT. MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT COLD FRONT COULD WASH OUT OR SLOW UP SAT. IF
SO...THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR GREATER INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP...MOST LIKELY OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI. LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE MI
WOULD THEN PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS OF CONVERGENCE FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH...BUT AT THIS POINT...NOT
EXPECTING ANY SVR STORMS.

NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL USHER IN THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP ACROSS UPPER MI AT SOME POINT SUN-SUN
NIGHT. LOW PRES WAVE OR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX RIDING ALONG PREVIOUS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS TO LWR LAKES WILL LIKELY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY
RETURN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUN. SO...NOT EXPECTING
ANY SVR STORMS WITH THIS FRONT EITHER. HOWEVER...IF INSTABILITY DOES
INCREASE MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED SUN...THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (45-55KT) TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SVR STORMS.

MUCH COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE UPPER LAKES MON/TUE ALONG WITH SHRA
CHANCES UNDER CHILLY CYCONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL LOW
DROPPING INTO THE AREA. TUE SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY. IF THE ECMWF
IS CORRECT IN SHOWING MORE PERSISTENT -RA/-SHRA WRAPPING AROUND THE
MID LEVEL LOW AND ACROSS UPPER MI TUE...IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE W AND N WHERE WINDS ARE OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY SEE DAYTIME TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 50F. AT NWS
MARQUETTE...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR
50S IN MID AND LATE JULY...AND THIS IS THE TYPE OF ANOMALOUS PATTERN
THAT WOULD SUPPORT SUCH LOW MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH OVERALL LAKE
SUPERIOR SFC WATER TEMP RUNNING ROUGHLY 5F COLDER THAN AVG FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. IN GENERAL...TEMPS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE 50S N AND LWR
60S S. WED WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. IF THERE
ARE ANY SHRA WED...THEY SHOULD BE OVER THE E. PROBABLY WON`T SEE A
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES DURING THE COLD SPELL...SO FROST DOESN`T
APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN AT THIS POINT. IF THERE WILL BE ANY NIGHT TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FROST...IT WILL BE WED NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW-END VFR CUMULUS AT MAINLY SAW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPING AT ALL SITES
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
EAST...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER





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