Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMQT 060526
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1226 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET FORECAST WITH NO HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
DRIFTS TO AN AXIS FM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE
STRONG WINTER STORM HEADING OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST OVER UPR GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
HIGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY FM THE AREA AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND
WARM FRONT APPROACH. WINDS MAY GUST OVER 30 MPH ON LK SUPERIOR AND
15-20 MPH ALONG IMMEDIATE SHORELINE OF LK SUPERIOR NORTHWEST CWA.
THESE STEADY WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING TOO MUCH ALONG LK
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. FARTHER INLAND THOUGH TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIKELY BLO ZERO THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO RISE LATE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
AS WINDS INCREASE EVEN INLAND.

INTO FRIDAY...COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SLIDE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG WITH A SFC WARM FRONT IN THE MORNING
AND MORE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE AFTN. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION H9-H8 WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE
H925-H85 LAYER WITH ADDITIONAL INTERVALS OF HIGHER RH ALOFT H7-H6.
LIFT WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER STAYS WEAK...SO WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES. BEST CHANCE OF MINOR SNOW
ACCUMS...STILL WELL UNDER AN INCH...WOULD BE WHERE SATURATION/LIFT
IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE/DEEPER OVER EASTERN CWA VCNTY
OF P53/ISQ/ERY.

BKN-OVC SKIES AND MINIMAL MIXING DUE TO SHARP INVERSION WITH WARM
FRONT IN VCNTY SUGGEST TEMPS REACH MAINLY IN THE 20S. UPPER 20S TO
NEAR 30 DEGREES OVER FAR WEST AND LOWER-MIDDLE 20S ELSEWHERE...COOLEST
IN THE EAST AS WINDS FLOW OFF NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A WARMER PATTERN WILL BE TAKING HOLD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE VERY
PESISTENT TROF THAT HAS DOMINATED ERN NAMERICA WILL BE GIVING WAY AS
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER WRN NAMERICA/NE PACIFIC DIMINISH...
CAUSING THE ERN TROF AMPLITUDE TO DIMINISH AS WELL. THESE CHANGES
WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW TAKING SHAPE...ALLOWING
PACIFIC AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CONUS. FOR UPPER MI...THIS MEANS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
RETREATING ARCTIC AIR THRU THE WEEKEND...AND THEN NEXT WEEK...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS SRN CANADA IN THE MORE
ZONALLY ORIENTED FLOW. AS FOR PCPN...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN IS
CHANGING...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN A DRY ONE FOR UPPER MICHIGAN...
CONTINUING THE DRY SYNOPTIC THEME FOR THE YEAR SO FAR. FARTHER DOWN
THE LINE...THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT MORE PERSISTENTLY BLO NORMAL
TEMPS MAY RETURN LATE THIS MONTH...BUT PROBABLY NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
BLO NORMAL. PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE.

BEGINNING FRI NIGHT/SAT...A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE...REACHING THE
UPPER LAKES SAT MORNING. PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST VIEWED ON THE 285K SFC (700-750MB) SHOULD
YIELD A SHORT PERIOD OF -SN AT MOST LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH MIXING
RATIOS ON THE 285K SFC ARE 2G/KG...THE PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
IS SHORT-LIVED...AND MUCH OF THE LIFT WILL GO INTO MOISTENING THE
ANTECEDANT DRY LOW-LEVELS. SO...MAYBE 3HRS OR SO OF STEADIER
-SN LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING IN THE NW AND ERN FCST AREA...CLOSER
TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE/BEST HEIGHT FALLS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1
TO 1.5 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ONLY
PATCHY -SN/FLURRIES AND A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION. WITH 850MB TEMPS
FALLING BACK TO -13C BEHIND SHORTWAVE ON SAT...THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT LES OFF THE OPEN SPOTS IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR ICE COVER IN THE
NW BACKING W LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC RIDGE AXIS.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...2 MORE SHORTWAVES WILL DROP THRU THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES. INITIALLY...EXPECT MAINLY
DRY WX SAT NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SFC RIDGE AXIS/WSHFT TO THE SW THAT
WILL PUSH ANY LES (IF THERE IS ANY) OUT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. LATE IN
THE NIGHT...FOCUS OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS OFF TO THE SW IN
SRN MN/SW WI...AND THAT`S WHERE THE MAIN AREA OF -SN WILL DEVELOP.
FARTHER N...DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE MAY
SPREAD A LITTLE -SN INTO THE W. WITH SECOND SHORTWAVE ARRIVING SUN
AFTN...THERE MAY BE MORE OF A DIURNAL COMPONENT TO -SHSN...MORE
TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH INCREASING SOLAR INSOLATION. 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -12C PROBABLY WON`T BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE MUCH IF
ANY LES SUN EVENING.

RETREATING FLOW TO THE N WILL THEN LEAD TO DRY WEATHER DOMINATING
MON THRU THU AS SHORTWAVES PASS BY TO THE N OF HERE. PERSISTENT WAA
WILL CAUSE 850MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -12C MON MORNING TO RISE TO 1 TO 4C
BY TUE MORNING AND TO 4 TO 8C BY WED MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL
OBVIOUSLY PLAY A BIG ROLE IN SFC TEMPS...BUT IT APPEARS THERE WON`T
BE MUCH MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. SINCE SUNSHINE ON
THE LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN OF UPPER MI AT THIS TIME OF YEAR
CAN SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH THE INFLUENCE OF SNOW COVER ON DAYTIME
HEATING...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF ALL AVBL GUIDANCE
FOR MON THRU WED. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 40S
WITH THE WARMEST DAYS TUE AND WED. COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
UPPER MI WED...SO TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPS. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THE N TO BE A LITTLE COOLER ON WED THAN TUE WHILE THE S
REMAINS AS WARM OR EVEN WARMER. IF TUE AND/OR WED ENDS UP MOSTLY
SUNNY...WOULD EXPECT SOME 50S IN THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRES BUILDING
ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THU WILL LEAD TO A COOLER DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER A GRADIENT NRLY FLOW (UPPER 20S N TO MID 30S FAR
SCNTRL).
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR OR POSSIBLY MVFR BY FRI AFTERNOON. SHARP INVERSION IN
PLACE INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO FRI MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SW WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION. A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ON
WESTERN AND NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 25 KTS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS DECREASE FURTHER
SUNDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CROSSES. SW WINDS KICK UP AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH THAT
MOVES OVER LK SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY.

LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE ICE MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT
AROUND AND/OR DIMINISH DUE TO THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS AND ALSO
SINCE TEMPERATURES...AT LEAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS...ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.