Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 021116
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
716 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. TROF OVER THE NW CONUS IS SENDING
ENERGY OUT TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...RESULTING IN SHRA/TSRA SCATTERED
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO ND AND FAR NW MN. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC TO WI...RESULTING IN ANOTHER TRANQUIL
NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM 52F AT KIWD TO 28F AT
SPINCICH LAKE TO THE NW OF KERY AS OF 08Z. MOST REPORTING LOCATIONS
IN THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA ARE IN THE LOW AND MID 30S.

AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS S AND E TODAY...RETURN FLOW WILL PICK
UP. SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY
THERE...LEADING TO COOL CONDITIONS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTN. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE UPPER 60S AND LWR 70S
AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS COOLED BY FLOW OFF THE LAKES.
SOME OF THE DECAYING BLOWOFF CI FROM CONVECTION TO THE W WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY.

TONIGHT...PROGRESSION OF ENERGY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW TROF WILL SEND
SFC COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z WED. PLUME OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD E ACROSS MN AND INTO NW WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
DURING THE NIGHT (PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES AND
MUCAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG TO NW WI/FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR).
ALTHOUGH THETA-E AXIS AND BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE STILL W OF
UPPER MI AT 12Z WED...PROXIMITY IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCHC POPS
OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI (BASICALLY KIWD TO THE PORCUPINE MTNS IN THE
09-12Z TIME FRAME). OTHERWISE...AFTER 3 NIGHTS OF FROST CONCERNS...
TONIGHT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS THE BOARD WITH INCREASING S
WINDS OFF THE DECK AND INCREASING COLUMN MOISTURE. MOST OF THE W
WILL STAY ABOVE 50F TONIGHT...MID 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MORE DECOUPLED OVER THE SCNTRL AND E...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL
AS LOW AS THE LWR 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE EJECTING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A 1009MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING WITH THIS FEATURE
IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE
NEARING OR IN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING AWAY FROM THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN JAMES BAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
INTENSITY TO DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. THUS...WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. DURING THE MORNING AND
REMAINING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE INSTABILITY PRETTY MARGINAL
(MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY UNDER 300 J/KG) WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WEST ALONG THE WISCONSIN
BORDER WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST.

ONCE THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION MOVES IN AND LIKELY
DECAYS...CONFIDENCE GREATLY DIMINISHES DUE TO LIMITED FORCING AND
IN TURN A VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY IS CONSISTENT IN ALL OF THE MODELS...BUT THE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO ON TUESDAY NIGHT LEADS TO SOME
VARIATIONS. 00Z GEM AND 12Z ECMWF FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THIS OF A LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH IN MINNESOTA AND MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRODUCES STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND AS A RESULT MORE/WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE WAVES LESS CONNECTED AND
DON/T DEVELOP THE LOW ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THINK THAT IDEA IS REASONABLE (MATCHING A MAJORITY OF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THAT.
THUS...WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE TROUGH AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DOWN WITH THE LIMITED FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT...BUT DON/T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
RUMBLES WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST AND A RIDGE FROM
A CANADIAN HIGH APPROACHES THE AREA.

THAT HIGH WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND A NICE
START TO THE WEEKEND. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES COOLER...WHILE INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL (UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S).

THAT HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY DEPART ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS TIED TO ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND THEN MERGING WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM BEFORE QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFYING.
WILL SPREAD CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME
HINTS AT A STRONGER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SHORTWAVE (AND TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION)...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT IDEA AS IT COULD LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WAVE
SHOULD ROTATE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER WAVE ARRIVING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE IS DEPARTING...LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL LINGER
THRU TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO LLWS TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING SFC TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING S TO SE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN...E TO NE WINDS WILL HANG ON OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THRU
TONIGHT. THE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER ROUGHLY
THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25KT TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST PLATFORMS LIKELY AROUND
30KT. WITH PRES GRADIENT WEAKENING SOME ON WED...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY THRU THE DAY. PASSAGE OF LOW PRES TROF WED NIGHT/THU
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING SE INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL SWING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NE. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONGER NE WINDS AT
SOME POINT LATER THU INTO FRI BEHIND THE TROF.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ005>007-009>014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON



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