Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 281918
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING S ACROSS NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM NRN ONTARIO TO FAR
NERN MT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
AND A SHORTWAVE OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AND DROP ACROSS THE CWA MON...BUT THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL MOVE OFF THE
E...FAVORING THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO BE JUST N TO NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND MON. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT BACK BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE THE BETTER SHORTWAVE AND JET
FORCING WILL BE. STILL...THINK RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER ALL OF THE
CWA...SO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND
MON...WITH HIGH POPS REMAINING OVER NCENTRAL UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE NLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH MON...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MON
OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND NOON MON
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S OVER NWRN UPPER MI...TO THE MID 50S
SCENTRAL. NLY SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT AND MON WILL NOT HELP IT FEEL ANY WARMER...DROPPING WINDS
CHILLS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR OVER NRN UPPER MI.

OVERALL...DID NOT CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE FORECAST SINCE THINGS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE LAST DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MONDAY WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR UPPER
MICHIGAN...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A BAND OF
SHOWERS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING.
EVEN AS A BULK OF THE RAIN HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE FAVORED BY
NORTH-NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH 900MB TEMPS
AROUND -1C AND LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS BETWEEN 6-12C WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS RUNNING AROUND 3-3.5KFT DON/T EXPECT THE RAIN TO
BE TOO HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO A PERSISTANT LIGHT RAIN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN THE FAVORED WIND
DIRECTIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND AT LEAST CHANCES ELSEWHERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (HIGH CENTERED IN NORTHEAST ONTARIO) MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THUS...WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN WITH STIFF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
(15-25KTS) AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S (30-35
DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS AFTERNOON) OVER THE NORTH HALF WILL MAKE
FOR A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT DAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE U.P. FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS FROM MONDAY/S
SYSTEM...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE FIRST WAVE FROM THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. WILL SHOW
INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) RUNNING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS COLD
FRONT IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
THE INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AS THIS LOW
MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH IS LIMITED DUE
TO THE VARYING SOLUTIONS SHOWN IN THE MODELS (NOT UNEXPECTED WITH
UPSTREAM PHASING OF STRONG SHORTWAVES). THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE NOT MUCH OF A HELP WITH AROUND HALF OF THEM NOT SHOWING
A LOW RIDING UP THE COLD FRONT. WITH 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS AT LEAST
SIMILAR IN THEIR IDEAS (ALTHOUGH GFS IS MUCH SLOWER IN DEPARTING THE
LOW)...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR NOW FOR POPS (CHANCE/LIKELY) AND
WIND (GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT) FORECAST.
LATE ARRIVING 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND JUST KEEPING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. BASED OFF
THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THAT DOESN/T SEEM TO UNREASONABLE.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE A DIMINISHING OF BOTH OF THOSE AS THE LOW PULLS
OUT OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AHEAD OF A
SHARP COLD FRONT DROPPING S THRU NRN ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD TRIGGER ISOLD -SHRA IN CNTRL UPPER
MI...BUT POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW FOR KSAW TO BE AFFECTED BY A -SHRA IF
IN FACT SOME DO DEVELOP. SO...NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN FCST. AS
THE COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT ALL TERMINALS
TO FALL ABRUPTLY TO IFR/LIFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT KCMX
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS WINDS DIRECTIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT KIWD AND KSAW ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP S...PASSING ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH POST FRONTAL PRES RISES WILL
RESULT IN N TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MON AFTN AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NRN ONTARIO.
WINDS UNDER 20KT WILL BE THE RULE TUE THRU THU. HOWEVER...AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME ON WED BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON
WED...MAINLY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT A STRENGTHENING FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT THRU THE
UPPER LAKES LATE WEEK...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS






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