Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 131926
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
326 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 508 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE
SW CONUS RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT
LAKES. A SHRTWV INTO SW WI NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SW IA
INTO NRN IL AND SRN LOWER MI...AND IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISUTR INFLOW...SUPPORTED AN AREA OF TSRA OVER SE WI INTO SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS LIFTING FROM ERN CO/NM
TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
AREAS OF FOG PREVAILED OVER UPPER MI AS MID LEVEL DRYING ABOVE 850
MB HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA.

TODAY...EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING FOG EARLY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE E TO NE UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS IN CNTRL UPPER MI...QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS THE MAIN PCPN AREA WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE SFC FRONT
NEAR THE IL/W BORDER. NRLY WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE...IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT...AS THE CNTRL PLAINS SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER LEVEL DIV ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE
130-140KT JET OVER NRN ONTARIO INCREASES...PCPN WILL EXPAND FROM
FROM NRN WI INTO THE SE HALF OF UPPER MI. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR TO THE NW THE HEAVIER PCPN SPREADS. THE NAM
WITH THE STRONGEST 700-600 MB FGEN FCSTS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
AROUND 0.50 INCH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. THE REGIONAL-GEM...ECMWF AND
GFS KEEP THE HEAVIER PCPN FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. EVEN THOUGH THE
STRONGER MID LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE POSSIBLE...SUSPECT THAT THE
MOISTURE INFLOW TO THE NW PORTION OF THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BE LIMITED
BY CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE 850 MB FRONT.
NEVERTHELESS QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH EAST OF A LINE FROM
IMT-P53 COULD SUPPORT WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES
S COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA BRINGING A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO SNOW BY LATE EVENING. AS TEMPS FALL AT OR BELOW 30F CNTRL...SOME
SLIPPERY AREA MAY DEVELOP ON UNTREATED ROADS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

FOCUSED MAINLY ON MID WEEK AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP. FOR LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED
SIGNIFICANT...SO JUST USED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED LES IS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT/TUE AS 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE -18C TO -20C WITH NW LOW LEVEL WINDS. INCOMING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WHILE CONFIDENCE IS STILL LIMITED...THE MAIN ATTENTION IN THE LONG
TERM WITH THE RESULT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
TUE NIGHT. BASICALLY...THERE ARE TWO CAMPS THE MODELS ARE IN. THE
12Z/13 GFS 12Z/13 AND GLOBAL GEM PHASE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A
SHORTWAVE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...WHICH DEEPENS
THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DIRECTS A
SECOND SHORTWAVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH A SFC TROUGH/FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA THAT
REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE CWA WED THROUGH AT LEAST THU AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW. THIS IDEA RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU GENERALLY OF 1-2 INCHES /EVEN BLEND OF THE GEM AND GFS/.
THE 00Z/13 ECMWF DOES NOT PHASE THE TROUGH AND FIRST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH BRINGS THAT SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SFC LOW S OF THE
CWA WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH MUCH LOWER QPF AMOUNTS ON THE N SIDE
OF THE SFC LOW OF UP TO 0.6 INCHES OVER THE NRN CWA. MODELS DO SHOW
SIMILAR THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW S AND MOSTLY SNOW N. AS FOR MODEL
CONTINUITY...THE GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE ECMWF DID SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY UNTIL THE LAST
RUN...WHICH TRENDED A LITTLE CLOSER THE GFS. THE GLOBAL GEM HAS BEEN
TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS. THIS BEING SAID...STILL HAVE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE AS THE HIGHER END QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS/GEM WILL BE
VERY DEPENDENT ON MANY OTHER FEATURES...AND FORECASTING MORE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH QPF AMOUNTS IS HARD TO JUSTIFY WITHOUT BETTER
CONFIDENCE. USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH A BIAS TOWARD THE
GFS/GEM. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO/EHWO THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. ON THE HIGH EXTREME FOR
QPF...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...BUT /AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY/ WILL JUST MENTION MODERATE AMOUNTS FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT IWD WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON AT CMX AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE AREA. A SFC
LOW IS FCST TO MOVE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SAW WILL BE IN THE LOCATION OF THE NW EDGE OF THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN
AREA AND EXPECT A RETURN OF SOME SN/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

NORTH TO NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY MONDAY NIGHT TO RESULT IN WINDS LESS
THAN 25 KNOTS BY THAT TIME. WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY MAINLY
BLO 20 KNOTS REST OF THE WEEK...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON WHETHER ONE OR
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TWO TIME
FRAMES OF INTEREST WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY. IF EITHER OF THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DO OCCUR...THEN
WINDS MAY END UP STRONGER THAN CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TODAY INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...SNOWMELT HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AND
MAY STOP ALTOGETHER OVER THE COMING FEW DAYS. GIVEN ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK AND WITH 4-9 INCHES OF
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT STILL OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR THE SECOND
PERIOD OF SNOW MELT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. APPEARS THE
WARMER TEMPS WHICH COULD START UP THE NEXT PERIOD OF SNOWMELT/RUNOFF
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MIZ006-
     007-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267.

  GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ244-245-264-265.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
HYDROLOGY...TITUS






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