Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 060851
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
451 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A RATHER INVOLVED FORECAST TODAY AS SEVERAL FORECAST ELEMENTS
REQUIRE ATTENTION...SO WILL BREAK THEM DOWN ONE BY ONE.

OVERVIEW...A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NE OF WINNIPEG WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH TONIGHT. A
STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP NW TO SE ACROSS UPPER MI THIS
EVENING BEFORE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET.

TEMPS...APPRECIABLE MIXING INTO H8/H9 TEMPS OF 19/25C AND MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST HALF. EVEN A COUPLE 90 DEGREE READINGS CANT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR WEST. FARTHER EAST...SSW FLOW OFF LAKE MI
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND...TO THE MID 50S
ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORE.

DEW POINTS/RH...THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING WILL TAP INTO A RESIDUAL
EML OFF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM THURSDAY. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
IS RUNNING FAR TOO HIGH WITH DEWPOINTS...ON THE ORDER OF MID TO
UPPER 40S. BASED OFF THE EML AND UPSTREAM OBS THU AFTERNOON...MIXING
SHOULD YIELD DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S INTERIOR WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH THE TEMPS IN THE 80S...THIS WILL
PRODUCE MIN RH VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT. GIVEN THE TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND FOLLOWING WINDS...DECIDED TO ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT
INCREASED FIRE WX CONCERNS ACROSS IN THE INTERIOR WEST HALF.

WINDS...AGAIN THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT OF 20-25KT 5-10KFT WINDS...SO INCREASED WIND GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20KTS FOR THE WEST. AS FOR THE EAST...AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS THE SFC LOW IMPINGES ON THE DEPARTING SFC RIDGE
THERMALLY ENHANCED BY LAKES MI AND HURON WILL RESULTS IN A FEW
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS. ALSO...A FAIRLY POTENT NARROW
JET...45-50KTS AT 3KFT...DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SFC LOW OVERNIGHT.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME QUITE GUSTY...BUT A RATHER STABLE MARINE
LAYER ADVECTING INLAND WITH THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE STRONGEST
WINDS.

PRECIP...LASTLY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN CAPPED MOST OF TODAY
AS SFC HEATING STRUGGLES TO KEEP UP WITH THE WAA ALOFT.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE REACHED BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE SFC FRONT. THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT AS PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SHOWED
COMPLETELY POST-FRONTAL PRECIP. DID NOT WANT TO JUMP COMPLETELY ON
THIS IDEA...SO INTRODUCED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A BOUNDARY FROM LAKE MI MODIFIED AIR
PROVIDES AN INITIAL SOURCE OF LIFT. IF CONVECTION IS
INITIATED...HIGH DCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25KTS
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM.

THE COLD FRONT WILL INITIATE MORE CONVECTION THIS EVENING...BUT MOST
PRECIP REMAINS POST FRONTAL AND ONLY TAPS INTO REMAINING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. A SECONDARY BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FIRST LINE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
AND ANOTHER OVER THE ERN U.S. AND ANOTHER NEAR HUDSON BAY IN A
RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN 12Z SAT. THE HUDSON BAY CLOSED LOW HAS A
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SAT. THIS
TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z MON. IN SPITE OF THE UPPER
LEVELS...LOOKS PRETTY DRY OVERALL AND QUIET.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z MON AND TROUGHING ACROSS SW CANADA WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND A TROUGH
IN ERN CANADA. UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR 12Z TUE.
BLOCKY PATTERN CONTINUES FOR 12Z WED WITH OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z THU
WITH RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND GENERALLY LOOKS QUIET AS
POPS LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW AS A
DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER DESPITE HIGH PRES EXITING AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING. MARGINAL LLWS IS EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
AT KIWD/KSAW WITH STRONGER WINDS NOTED ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION PER
KMQT/KDLH VAD WIND PROFILES AND MODEL FCSTS. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A WSHFT TO
THE N AND PERHAPS A FEW SHRA. COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...SO MOSTLY A VCSH WAS UTILIZED IN FCST. MIGHT BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IF A SHRA DOES AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KIWD AND KCMX AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL MARINE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT STABILIZES THE
NEAR SFC LAYER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SSW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE N AT 20-30 KTS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THESE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH UNDER 15-20 KTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KLUBER
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON/KLUBER
MARINE...KLUBER


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