Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 252015
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
315 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE U.S. THERE IS
ALSO A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THU.

PERSISTENCE IS THE WAY TO GO WITH THIS FORECAST AS NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND TI REMAINS COLD ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. STILL DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ICE
COVER AS THIS HAS BEEN VARIABLE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS HELPING TO
BREAK IT UP IN A FEW PLACES AND CAUSE THIN SPOTS IN THE ICE COVER
AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS REASON AS THERE IS
ENOUGH HEAT COMING THROUGH TO STILL CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS IN A FEW
PLACES. THERE SEEMS TO BE TWO SPOTS OF FOCUS WITH ONE AROUND IWD AND
THE SECOND EAST OF THE KEWEENAW WHICH HITS ALGER COUNTY TO LUCE
COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME POPS THERE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. ELECTED TO GO WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE CWA
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES CAUSING THE
WIND CHILLS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH IN MOST PLACES
AND THE TEMPERATURE IS DRIVING THIS PRODUCT...NOT THE WIND AND WILL
STRESS THIS IN THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND HAVE VALUES RANGE FROM -
20F TO -35F. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A QUIET END OF THE WORK WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND IS IN STORE
FOR UPPER MICHIGAN...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS
THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST BY
SATURDAY. WITH THE 850MB TEMPERATURES MODERATING ALOFT (RISING FROM
-20C THURSDAY EVENING TO -14C ON SATURDAY)...EXPECT BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS TO BEGIN TO TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY NEARING 20 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF THE MODERATING
850MB TEMPS...LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A GENERALLY ICE
COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR...THINK THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY (ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNAL CU ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON).

FOR THE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUICK DUSTING OF
SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW. BEHIND THIS WAVE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO ANOTHER QUIET
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THE AREA WILL BE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD...AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO EJECT SHORTWAVES
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT SAW FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND FOR
CMX FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. JUST ENOUGH OPEN WATER IS KEEPING IWD
TEMPORARILY IFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THEY WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR FOR THE PERIOD EXCEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR FOR
MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 239 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY...BUILDING A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT AND SHIFTING ICE
COVER PREVENTING LARGE AREAS OF OPEN WATER...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LARGE WAVES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 11
     AM EST /10 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...07



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