Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 160824
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
324 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM EST TUE JAN 16 2018

...Moderate to occasionally heavy lake effect snow expected for
north to northwest wind snowbelts into this afternoon...

Today: A surface low over the Lower Great Lakes an associated upper
level low, staggered just west of the surface low, will weaken and
slowly shift into southern Quebec by this afternoon. Northerly flow
across the area will become northwesterly throughout the day as the
low shifts out of the area. Initially, the northerly flow will allow
for moderate to occasionally heavy bursts of lake effect snow over
north central portions of the U.P. through the morning hours;
however, as the winds become northwesterly throughout the day, the
heavier snow will shift eastward. The lake effect snow will be
heaviest in the higher terrain where upslope flow will help increase
snowfall rates. There will be a brief period that the wind profile
will be uniform from the north this morning as the aforemention
surface low and upper level low become vertically stacked. This will
be the time period where the heavier and more focused snow bands
occur. Again, this would be mainly over the north central U.P.
through the morning hours before shifting eastward. Inversion
heights are showing up around 6kft to 7kft, which would suggest
moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall vs. steady heavy snowfall.
Again, winds are expected to steadily shift, which will keep the
snowfall from focusing in one area for an extended period, again
helping to keep snowfall totals at Advisory level for Baraga,
Marquette and Alger Counties. At this point it looks like an
additional 3 to 6 inches of snow could fall across portions of the
aforementioned counties, heaviest across the high terrain. The lake
effect snow over the western portions of the U.P. should steadily
taper off throughout the day with only a few inches of snow expected
through the morning hours. The high terrain of Ontonagon and Gogebic
county may see advisory level snowfall, but it should be fairly
limited in areal extent; therefore, have continued the SPS into the
morning hours. Drier air will move in toward the afternoon hours
over the western U.P. and winds will shift to the west, which again
lends support for a steady decrease in the snowfall throughout the
day.

Tonight: A surface ridge and upper level ridge are expected to slide
into the Upper Great Lakes region. This along with drier low level
air will allow the lake effect snow to come to an across the area.
There may be a ribbon of mid to upper level moisture that slides
through the area, which would only act to increase cloud cover with
no precipiation expected. Overnight lows will likely fall into the
single digits below zero for most locations; however, this largely
depends on the extent of the cloud cover and temporal coverage of
the clouds. At this point, it looks like the clouds will be fairly
quick moving, whould allow temperatures to fall to the colder side
of guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM EST TUE JAN 16 2018

With highs in the 20s, Wed marks the start of a warm-up. Highs will
then be in the low to mid 30s Thu through Sat. Temps then drop back
to near normal early next week.

With no significant impacts expected from weather through much of
this weekend, attention is on early next week when all models show
potential for a significant system to move through the region. Heavy
snow and mixed precip are possible depending on track and strength
of the system. The predictability horizon for this type of system is
much closer in than we are now, so there is a lot of uncertainty.
While the uncertainty is too great to get into details of potential
threats, those with interests in the area should monitor later
forecasts for early next week. For now, model blends handled things
quite well so stuck with that.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1254 AM EST TUE JAN 16 2018

KIWD and KCMX: As winds back from ENE to NNE tonight a band of
heavier lake effect snow could push onshore into KIWD overnight. A
brief period of 1/4SM vis will be possible during the heaviest snow
before visibilities settle between IFR and LIFR into Tuesday
morning. Conditions at KCMX in NE flow should be MVFR overnight. As
winds back NW and then WNW Tuesday afternoon conditions should
improve to MVFR and then possibly to VFR at KIWD, but should remain
MVFR/IFR at KCMX.

KSAW: Conditions will lower briefly from VFR to MVFR/IFR and
possibly to LIFR as a band of heavy lake effect snow moves through
the area around 07z. Winds backing to NE overnight will likely bring
in steadier bands of lake effect snow which should result in
prevailing IFR to possibly LIFR conditions. As winds back NW Tuesday
afternoon, conditions will improve to MVFR and then to VFR.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 323 AM EST TUE JAN 16 2018

Today winds will diminish to around 15 to 25 knots, but will quickly
ramp up to gales of 35 to 40 knots late tonight through early
Wednesday night across much of Lake Superior, which has led to a
gale warning issuance. See the latest Marine Weather Statement for
further details. As the winds increase tonight into Wednesday, heavy
freezing spray is expected over the western half of Lake Superior.
Otherwise, winds will drop back down to between 15 and 25 knots
Thursday through the beginning of the weekend.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ004-
     005.

  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ006.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ267.

  Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ265-266.

  Gale Warning from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 1 AM EST
     /midnight CST/ Thursday for LSZ162-263-264.

Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Voss
MARINE...KEC



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