Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 302100
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
500 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

SHORTWAVES/SFC TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRI
WILL LEAD TO ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN NOW (ALREADY OBSERVING PRECIP OVER THE WRN CWA
AND NW OF THE CWA) AND THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE TO A LITTLE WEAKER
MAGNITUDES FRI. WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IN MOST PLACES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND ALONG
WITH AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AGAIN FRI.

OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIP IS LOW...WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
OTHER PARAMETERS OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS WERE IN GENEARL AGREEMENT THAT NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY GRADUALLY SINKING INTO QUEBEC TUE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY THU. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY AND
COOLER PATTERN THERE MAY PERIODS OF SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AS SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH REGION THAT COULD PRODUCE LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF PCPN.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NRN LAKES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING/POSITION OF THESE IS
LOW...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING AN INTO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 500 J/KG IN
THE EVENING WILL ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLD/SHRAS SATURDAY OVER THE
EAST...CLOSER TO THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AREA OF WEAK
INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO NEAR 80.

SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NRN LAKES THAT WILL BRING THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR PCPN. HOWEVER...THE FCST MAINTAINS ONLY CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN.

MON-THU...EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE THE COLD
FRONT WITH ENSEMBLES AND MODELS CONSENSUS 850 MB TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE 4C-6C RANGE. THERE WIL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO
TUE WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK SHRTWVS LIKELY. CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WITH RIDGING THROUGH THE AREA BY WED-THU WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHRA NEAR KIWD LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTED COVERAGE
IS LOW ENOUGH TO ONLY INCLUDE VCSH IN TAF.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF
TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20KT RANGE INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...TITUS



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