Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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450
FXUS63 KMQT 052321
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
621 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...LAKE EFFECT ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGHING ALOFT FM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES SANDWICHED BTWN SHARP RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS AND STRONGER
RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES AND
FORCING TRACKING NORTH OF UPR MICHIGAN LIMIT CHANCES OF MUCH SNOW
AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. CURRENTLY...LAKE EFFECT
THAT PRODUCED A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA LAST
NIGHT AND TODAY FM BIG BAY TOWARD AU TRAIN AND MUNISING HAS WEAKENED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS IN BLYR BACKING W-WSW. THERE ARE
TWO SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM CURRENTLY...BUT AFTN SATELLITE LOOP AND SFC
OBS INDICATE CLOUDS ARE LACKING...WITH ONLY POCKETS OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS/FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND FM SOUTHERN MN INTO WCNTRL
WI AND FAR WEST UPR MICHIGAN. OVERALL THOUGH LOWERED SKY COVER THIS
EVENING AND WENT LOWER FOR TEMPS....ESPECIALLY CNTRL AND EAST
INTERIOR. MOST AREAS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE FREE OF ANY SNOW. ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER KEWEENAW AS THEY ARE CLOSER TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AND
ASSOCIATED SHARPENING SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO SHARP H3-H25 JET
DIGGING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW EVEN ON
KEWEENAW WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. KEPT MENTION OF LGT
SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS AS MOISTURE DOES FINALLY INCREASE
BLO H7. LIFT LOOKS WEAKEST TOWARD WI BORDER AS STRONGEST Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE CROSSES LK SUPERIOR WITH THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE. LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH...SUB H85 MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FM THE SW...JUST
NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW/FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT FOCUS FOR SNOW TURNS TO THE KEWEENAW. IF IT
WAS COLDER ALOFT WOULD BE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NEED FOR ADVY. H85
TEMPS ONLY FALL TO AROUND -11C/-12C SO THAT IS MARGINAL FOR HEAVY
SNOW. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ADDED LIFT FM DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE. SOUNDINGS SHOW
MAJORITY OF MOIST LAYER WITH THE LAKE EFFECT IS WITHIN THE DGZ SO
SLR/S SHOULD BE MORE IN 20-30:1 RANGE. DUE TO SHARP CONVERGENCE
ALONG SFC TROUGH LINGERING OVER LK SUPERIOR AND KEWEENAW...INCREASED
QPF CLOSER TO GEM-REGIONAL/NCEP WRF/NMM AND NAM. RESULT WAS TOTAL
QPF OVER 0.25 INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY ON SAT WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL UP TO
6 INCHES. EVEN HIGH RES MODELS DO DIFFER ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER QPF/SNOW...SO KEPT THIS AXIS PRETTY BROAD BRUSHED FM
PAINESDALE TO MOHAWK. DOUBT ALL THOSE AREAS WILL SEE THIS TYPE OF
SNOW AS THINK THE AXIS WILL END UP NARROWER. NO HEADLINE ATTM BUT
WILL MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. GUSTY WEST WINDS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT BLSN SHOULD NOT BE
TOO EXTENSIVE.

AWAY FM KEWEENAW WILL ALSO SEE SFC TROUGH DIP OVER NORTHEAST CWA IN
THE AFTN. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE WANING BY EARLY AFTN...SO
INTENSITY MAY NOT AS STRONG AS ON THE KEWEENAW. INLAND...TRIMMED
POPS TO ONLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES LATE AFTN AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW DRIVES
ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA EXTNDING A WARM FRONT TOWARD LK SUPERIOR/UPR
MICHIGAN. RAISED MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPR 20S AND LOWER 30S AS EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME SUN AWAY FM LAKE SUPERIOR. TRIED TO DOWNPLAY CLOUD
COVER SOME AS MODELS SEEM TO BE SHOWING TOO MUCH MOISTURE LAST FEW
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TREND TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN NOAM AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD
WEEKEND...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LES FOR N TO NW
FLOW LOCATIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING SAT NIGHT...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOC SFC LOW MOVING INTO
NORTHERN MN WILL SUPPORT SW FLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 850-700
MB FRONT FROM NW ONTARIO THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO NCNTRL AND
ERN UPPER MI WHERE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUN...SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES TO NEAR
KDLH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...KEEP THE HIGHER
QPF AND PCPN CHANCES TO THE NORTH...WEST AND EAST OF THE CWA AS A
DRY SLOT MOVES INTO UPPER MI.

SUN NIGHT AND MON...LES CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW
DROPS SE INTO WI TOWARD THE IL/IN BORDER AND WINDS BECOME NRLY FROM
W TO E ACROSS THE CWA. CAA WILL DROP 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C
EAST AND TO AROUND -15C WEST. MODELS INDICATE WEAKER LIFT ASSOC WITH
MID-LVL LOW/TROUGH THAN YESTERDAY/S RUNS AND THUS NOT PRODUCING AS
MUCH QPF. GREATER INSTABILITY AND LONGER FETCH IN CYCLONIC NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL INITIALLY FAVOR THE WRN FCST AREA FOR POSSIBLE MODERATE
LES.

TUE INTO WED...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE LAKES...COLDER AIR
WILL DROP INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -20C. THIS
INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH WEAK ENHANCEMENT FROM MID-LVL
TROUGH HANGING OVER AREA WILL SUPPORT HIGH LES CHANCES FOR N TO NW
FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THU AND FRI...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LES COULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OR GET
PUSHED OFFSHORE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON THU AS WINDS BACK WESTERLY
WITH A SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE 12Z
GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI TIME FRAME.
THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT BOTH
MODELS SHOW WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY AGAIN BY FRI WHICH WL BRING MORE
LES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT (WHEN UP 200 DOG SLED RACE BEGINS) AS THE 12Z ECMWF
INDICATES CORE OF -30C 850 MB TEMPS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MVFR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT AT KCMX WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT AFTERNOON AS A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA.

AT IWD...EXPECT VFR CLOUD DECK TO LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT INTO SAT
AFTERNOON. AT SAW...WILL SEE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT.
MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WINDS TO 30 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GALE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SERIES OF TROUGHS CROSS LK SUPERIOR.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THEN
SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IN WAKE OF STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MORE GALES POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE
LOW SLOWS UP AS IT CROSSES LOWER GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. WINDS DIMINISH NEXT WED-THU.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA



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