Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
FXUS63 KMQT 281854
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
254 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 417 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
As with the past several days, shower and storm chances continue to
hinge on the timing of subtle features rounding a mid-level ridge
over the Great Lakes region.
A weak mid-level wave brought a decent shield of rain to the central
and east early this morning before lifting across Lake Superior.
Expect a lull in precip through the remainder of the early morning
hours behind this trough as subsidence briefly takes over. Another
group of showers will then lift northward across WI and across the
west half by mid-morning. The batch of precip may diminish in
coverage while nearing the CWA as it outruns the best forcing ahead
of the trough currently exiting the central Plains.
What happens this afternoon and evening will depend largely on the
coverage of any shower activity and clouds this morning. As a subtle
shortwave ejects out ahead of the main trough axis lifting into the
Upper MS Valley, precip will expand in coverage across northern WI
and the west half of the CWA. If precip coverage remains fairly low
this morning, enough instability will be generated to produce a
decent amount of embedded thunderstorm activity late this afternoon
into the early evening. Many parameters, including mid-level lapse
rates and 1-6km shear, will be a bit low to support strong to severe
storms for most of the area. However, one or two stronger storms
will be possible on lake breeze convergence boundaries.
Another lull in precip activity is expected late this evening into
the overnight hours, though isolated to scattered showers and
possibly some storms will be possible during this time as the main
trough axis approaches.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
Nam forecasts a 500 mb shortwave over the area 00z Mon followed by a
shortwave ridge that moves in on Tue. GFS and ECMWF show about the
same thing as well and will go with a blend of them for this
forecast. Pops move out Sun night and do not return to the cwa until
Tue. Looks pretty quiet and will still continue the dry forecast for
Memorial Day and Mon night. Overall, did not make too many changes
to the going forecast.
In the extended...GFS and ECMWF show a closed 500 mb trough and
closed low over the northern plains 12z Wed. This trough moves into
the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu and remains over the area through Sat.
Still remains unsettled this forecast period with temperatures
remaining near normal. Fri looks to be the driest day of this
forecast period with sfc high pressure in the area. Sat could have
some lake breeze convection with light winds and a warm front near
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
LIFR clouds have been stubborn to depart today with weak winds and
no dry advection. Expect improvement to low MVFR this afternoon.
Scattered showers will remain across Upper Michigan with the
greatest chances this aftn at KCMX. After the showers exit this
evening, expect BR/FG and low clouds to develop again and produce
IFR to LIFR conditions at all sites overnight. Conditions will
slowly improve by late in the TAF period.
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
A relatively weak pres gradient/hi stability will dominate the Upper
Great Lakes this forecast period, so expect winds at or below 20kts.
Since moist air will linger over the chilly lake waters, dense fog
will persist into at least Sun. Will continue going Dense Fog
Advisory thru the day on Sun. The fog should begin to diminish Sun
night/Mon as drier air arrives from the NW.
Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ243>246-264>267.
Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Sunday for LSZ162-