Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 171724
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
124 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

RATHER HI INVRN BASE NEAR H85 AS SHOWN ON THE LOCAL 12Z RAOBS WL
MAKE THE LO CLDS A BIT HARDER TO MIX OUT THIS AFTN BECAUSE EVEN WITH
SOME DAYTIME HEATING/LLVL DRYING FM THE NE...THE LCL IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN BLO THE INVRN BASE FOR A LONGER TIME. SO INCREASED SKY COVER
AND LOWERED DAYTIME FCST HI TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE MORE PERSISTENT CLD COVER. ALSO HAVE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL INTO EARLY AFTN BASED ON SFC
REPORTS AND WHERE THE LLVL NE WIND PRESENTS A SHARPER UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENET. IF THE LO CLDS REMAIN RESILIENT... MAY HAVE TO LOWER
FCST HI TEMPS A BIT MORE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AND A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND A RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SW. THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.

NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE COMES IN LATE TONIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME LIFT AND MOISTURE
ON THE I300K-I315K SURFACES LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS COMING INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN TO MOVE OUT THIS MORNING...BUT
FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTI CYCLONIC AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE IN...SO LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

DEFINITELY LOOKING AT A DIFFERENT PATTERN THIS WEEK THAN LAST. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO THE
ND/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER BY 12Z MON /START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD/...TO NEAR DLH BY 06Z TUE...TO THE CENTRAL CWA BY 00Z
WED...THEN OFF TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 00Z THU. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE FASTER IN BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND MON...SO
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS ON MON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TUE...AND WILL
START TO TAPER OFF POPS TUE NIGHT AND WED AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS SE.
TEMPS MON THROUGH WED LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
EACH DAY.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS FROM MID WEEK
ON. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW DISCREPANCIES IN SMALL SCALE DETAILS
CONCERNING PRECIP CHANCES THU THROUGH SAT...BUT WITH RIDGING
OVERHEAD WE WILL SEE LOWER PRECIP CHANCES THAN MON AND TUE. SHOULD
SEE AN OVERALL WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. RAN WITH CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

WITH DAYTIME HEATING/DRY AIR SLOWLY ENCROACHING FM THE NE TO THE S
OF HI PRES MOVING INTO NRN LK SUP...EXPECT LO CLDS/MVFR CIGS
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES TO GIVE WAY TO CLRG/VFR CONSITIONS THRU THE
AFTN. MORE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW -SHRA IN ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE
SPREADING E FM MN WL ARRIVE OVER THE W OVERNGT. PER UPSTREAM OBS IN
MN...FCST MVFR CIGS TO ARRIVE AT IWD AND THEN CMX ON MON MRNG AS
DEEPER MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APRCHG DISTURBANCE OVERSPREADS THESE
SITES. ALTHOUGH THIS DEEPER MSTR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN W OF SAW THRU
THIS TAF PERIOD...SOME FOG MAY DVLP AT THAT SITE OVERNGT. DID NOT
FCST A LOWER CONDITION ATTM WITH EXPECTATION THAT HI CLDS PUSHING E
OF THE APRCHG DISTURBANCE MAY LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING SUFFICIENTLY TO
PREVENT FOG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ABOVE THE CHILLY
WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07




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