Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 201707
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
107 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...SHORTWAVE THAT WAS NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG 24HRS AGO IS NOW REACHING SRN HUDSON BAY. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW HAS MOVED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
DISSIPATING OVER NRN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH SRN PORTION OF FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED ON APPROACH TO LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI...CORRIDOR OF WEAK
INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL TROFFING EXTENDING S ACROSS
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI/WRN WI HAS LED TO FAIRLY PERSISTENT
SCT -SHRA GENERATION ALONG A NARROW RIBBON FROM A SMALL PORTION OF
NW/NCNTRL UPPER MI NNE ACROSS ERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

HOURLY RUNS OF THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH OVERNIGHT HAVE CONTINUED
TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU THIS MORNING OVER MAINLY CNTRL
UPPER MI ALONG AHEAD OF WEAK MID LEVEL TROF AND WITHIN WEAK
INSTABILITY AXIS PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. WITH SOME OF THE OTHER HIGH
RES GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME PCPN THIS MORNING...AND SINCE
RECENT KMQT RADAR IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING SPECKLES OF RETURNS OVER
WRN UPPER MI...WILL PAINT ISOLD -SHRA OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF OF
UPPER MI THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTHERWISE...TREND INTO THE AFTN
SHOULD BE FOR DRY WEATHER UNDER BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WITH
AN APPARENT LACK OF ANY APPROACHING SHORTWAVES. AS FOR TEMPS...
MIXING TO 850-800MB ON NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...MOSTLY AROUND 80 TO
THE MID 80S...BUT LOCALLY WARMER IN THE S WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS AND
OBVIOUSLY COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS.

NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING TO
HUDSON BAY BY MON AFTN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL TRACK E WELL N OF
THE U.S./CANADA BORDER WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW MN
TONIGHT. UNDER AXIS OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...STRONG/SVR TSTMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING IN NW
AND NRN MN. WITH STRONGER 850MB FLOW THEN BECOMING CONFINED TO
NRN ONTARIO TONIGHT...SRN END OF BKN LINE OF STORMS SHOULD TEND TO
DISSIPATE WITH NRN PORTION OF STORMS BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AND
SHIFTING OVER OR N OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...ONLY BRUSHED NW UPPER MI WITH SCHC/LOW CHC POPS OVERNIGHT
WITH BETTER PCPN CHANCES OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH SOUTH WINDS
STAYING UP TONIGHT AND WITH INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER...IT WILL
BE A WARMER NIGHT. SOME DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE W AND N MAY
NOT SEE TEMPS FALL BLO 70F TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...60S WILL MAINLY BE
THE RULE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST ON MON WILL BE ABNORMALLY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND
FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SWLY WINDS WILL KEEP DOWNWIND AREAS COOLER.
SFC DEW PTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK PRECIP
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL ON MON DUE TO AN EML BEING OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. SOME MODELS HAVE SHOWN QPF OVER
MAINLY NCENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR THE SHORELINE WHILE TRYING TO MOVING INLAND AGAINST THE
SW WINDS. THINK THAT EVEN A GOOD LAKE BREEZE WILL HAVE TROUBLE
LIFTING ANY PARCELS PAST THE LFC...SO LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

BETTER PRECIP PROBABILITIES ARE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT AS
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT UPWIND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
OR NEAR THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. SOME MODELS ALSO INDICATED MORE
THAN ONE WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HAVE LIKELY POPS
IN THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP AT SOME POINT DURING THE
PERIOD IS HIGH. SEVERE POTENTIAL /AS WITH POPS IN THE GENERAL/ IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE DECAYING MCS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX/ES/. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND VERY
CONDITIONAL ON MANY OTHER FACTORS...SO MANY DETAILS OF THAT ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCURATELY FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

A SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION WED INTO FRI...MAKING FOR A DRY
FORECAST AND A COLDER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S...COOLEST ON WED WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY ON SAT DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE NEXT WEEKEND
DUE TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FCST PERIOD AT
ALL SITES. THE REMNANTS OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING IN NRN MN LATE THIS
AFTN OR EVENING MAY REACH NW UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT AT CMX. CHANCE IS
SO LOW FOR RIGHT NOW...DO NOT HAVE IT IN THE TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU MON AS
HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED TO THE E WHILE LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA. ONE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL FINALLY CROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TUE...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N. WINDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCNL
PERIODS OF STRONGER WINDS (15-30KT) AT THE HIGHER OBS PLATFORMS.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE E HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT. FOG SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP/EXPAND
OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY AFTER ANY PCPN OCCURS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON






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