Climatological Report (Monthly)
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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CXUS53 KMQT 020457
CLMMQT

CLIMATE REPORT...PRELIMINARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1158 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

...................................

...THE MARQUETTE MI CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2015...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1961 TO 2015

WEATHER         OBSERVED          NORMAL  DEPART  LAST YEAR`S
                 VALUE   DATE(S)  VALUE   FROM    VALUE  DATE(S)
                                          NORMAL
................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
RECORD
 HIGH              73   11/09/1999
 LOW              -13   11/29/1976
HIGHEST            67   11/03        35      32       50  11/03
LOWEST              5   11/27        22     -17       -4  11/27
                                                          11/26
                                                          11/20
AVG. MAXIMUM     44.8              37.6     7.2     28.9
AVG. MINIMUM     28.3              23.0     5.3     14.1
MEAN             36.5              30.3     6.2     21.5
DAYS MAX >= 90      0               0.0     0.0        0
DAYS MAX <= 32      6               9.2    -3.2       18
DAYS MIN <= 32     20              25.8    -5.8       28
DAYS MIN <= 0       0               0.5    -0.5        6

PRECIPITATION (INCHES)
RECORD
 MAXIMUM         8.25   1988
 MINIMUM         0.81   1962
TOTALS           2.15              3.18   -1.03     5.22
DAILY AVG.       0.07              0.11   -0.04     0.17
DAYS >= .01        12              15.2    -3.2       19
DAYS >= .10         6               7.1    -1.1       10
DAYS >= .50         2               1.7     0.3        3
DAYS >= 1.00        0               0.5    -0.5        2
GREATEST
 24 HR. TOTAL    0.91   11/11 TO 11/12

SNOWFALL (INCHES)
RECORDS
 TOTAL           53.0   2014
TOTALS            6.7              24.4   -17.7     53.0
SINCE 7/1         7.9              30.5   -22.6     56.2
SNOWDEPTH AVG.      1                 4      -3       13
DAYS >= 1.0         2               6.3    -4.3       15
GREATEST
 SNOW DEPTH         4   11/28                         25  11/12
                        11/27
 24 HR TOTAL      4.1   11/26 TO 11/27

DEGREE_DAYS
HEATING TOTAL     846              1041    -195     1298
 SINCE 7/1       1832              2202    -370     2530
COOLING TOTAL       0                 0       0        0
 SINCE 1/1        250               242       8      152
.................................................................

WIND (MPH)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED              MM
HIGHEST WIND SPEED/DIRECTION    MM        DATE   MM
HIGHEST GUST SPEED/DIRECTION    43/180    DATE  11/18

SKY COVER
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE (PERCENT)   MM
AVERAGE SKY COVER             MM
NUMBER OF DAYS FAIR          MM
NUMBER OF DAYS PC            MM
NUMBER OF DAYS CLOUDY        MM

AVERAGE RH (PERCENT)     MM

WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMBER OF DAYS WITH
THUNDERSTORM              0     MIXED PRECIP               0
HEAVY RAIN                0     RAIN                       1
LIGHT RAIN               11     FREEZING RAIN              0
LT FREEZING RAIN          0     HAIL                       0
HEAVY SNOW                1     SNOW                       1
LIGHT SNOW               11     SLEET                      1
FOG                       8     FOG W/VIS <= 1/4 MILE      3
HAZE                      0

-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.

&&

...NOVEMBER 2015 MONTHLY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR UPPER MICHIGAN...
/THIS DISCUSSION DOES NOT INCLUDE CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES/

...VERY WARM...
...THIRD WARMEST NOVEMBER AT HOUGHTON...
...FOURTH WARMEST NOVEMBER AT THE MARQUETTE NWS...
...FIFTH WARMEST NOVEMBER AT NEWBERRY...

...VARIABLE PRECIPITATION BUT BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL...
...FOURTH LOWEST NOVEMBER SNOWFALL AT THE MARQUETTE NWS...

NOVEMBER CLIMATE STATISTICS FOR THE MARQUETTE NWS IN NEGAUNEE
 TOWNSHIP

                                    NORMAL   DEPARTURE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE         36.5     30.3   PLUS    6.2
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE    44.8     37.6   PLUS    7.2
AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE     28.3     23.0   PLUS    5.3
HEATING DEGREE DAYS          846     1041  MINUS    195
COOLING DEGREE DAYS            0        0             0
TOTAL PRECIPITATION         2.15     3.18  MINUS   1.03
TOTAL SNOWFALL               6.7     24.4  MINUS   17.7

HIGHEST TEMPERATURE:                    67 ON 11/3
LOWEST TEMPERATURE:                      5 ON 11/27
GREATEST CALENDAR DAY PRECIPITATION:  0.83 ON 11/12
GREATEST 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION:       0.91 ON 11/11-11/12
GREATEST CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL:        3.7 ON 11/26
GREATEST 24 HOUR SNOWFALL              4.1 ON 11/26-11/27
GREATEST SNOW DEPTH                      4 ON 11/27 AND 11/28
PEAK WIND SPEED:     43 MPH FROM THE SOUTH ON 11/18

DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON 11/5...53 /OLD RECORD
                                                    51...2008/
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED ON 11/10...57 /57...2010/
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON 11/16...55 /54...1988/
DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON 11/17...44 /43...2004/
DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON 11/18...45 /38...2003/
FOURTH HIGHEST NOVEMBER MEAN TEMPERATURE...36.5 /RECORD 39.9...2001/
FOURTH LOWEST NOVEMBER SNOWFALL...6.7 /RECORD 2.5...1990/
---------------------------------------------------------------------
GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS (FEET/METERS ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL)

                            LAKE SUPERIOR  LAKE MICHIGAN-HURON
11/01/15 DAILY MEAN         602.29/183.58     579.24/176.55
11/30/15 DAILY MEAN         602.26/183.57     579.14/176.52
AVG OCT 2015 DAILY MEAN     602.37/183.60     579.33/176.58
AVG NOV 2014 DAILY MEAN     602.58/183.67     579.21/176.54
LONG TERM NOV DAILY MEAN    601.90/183.46     578.64/176.37
MAXIMUM NOV DAILY MEAN      603.31/183.89     581.96/177.38
                                (1985)           (1986)
MINIMUM NOV DAILY MEAN      600.43/183.01     576.28/175.65
                                (1925)           (1964)

...GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS FALL SLOWLY BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN NOVEMBER...

WATER LEVELS ON THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FELL ABOUT AN INCH DURING
OCTOBER. AT THE END OF THE MONTH...WATER LEVELS ON LAKE SUPERIOR
WERE 4 TO 5 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL BUT 3 TO 4 INCHES LOWER THAN IN
OCTOBER 2014. THE LEVEL ON LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON WAS 6 INCHES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON 10/31 AND ABOUT THE SAME AS DURING NOVEMBER 2014.

OBTAIN GREAT LAKES WATER LEVEL DATA AS REPORTED BY THE U.S. ARMY
CORPS OF ENGINEERS AT

HTTP://WWW.LRE.USACE.ARMY.MIL/MISSIONS/GREATLAKESINFORMATION/
       GREATLAKESWATERLEVELS/CURRENTCONDITIONS.ASPX (ALL LOWER CASE).
---------------------------------------------------------------------
                      NOVEMBER CLIMATE HIGHLIGHTS

MORE TO COME LATER.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SOME OTHER TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OBSERVATIONS ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN IN NOVEMBER 2015 INCLUDE:

HOUGHTON COUNTY...AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 38.1 /6.7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/
 AIRPORT          PRECIPITATION 2.99 INCHES /0.86 INCH ABOVE NORMAL/
                  SNOWFALL 11.7 INCHES /10.5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL/

NEWBERRY...AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 39.8 /5.9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/
           PRECIPITATION 3.34 INCHES /0.38 INCH ABOVE NORMAL/
           SNOWFALL 5.0 INCHES /9.1 INCHES BELOW NORMAL/

                        NOVEMBER WEATHER SUMMARY

MORE TO COME LATER.

                           DECEMBER FORECAST

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING A GREATER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCE OF AN ABOVE NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE
AND BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN IN
DECEMBER 2015.

                         DECEMBER CLIMATOLOGY

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD SLIDE IN DECEMBER AS WINTER
ARRIVES IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.  AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURES IN
DECEMBER ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ARE AS MUCH AS 12 DEGREES LOWER THAN
IN NOVEMBER AS TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE DECLINES TO 514 MINUTES
AROUND THE WINTER SOLSTICE. WINTER OFFICIALLY BEGINS THIS YEAR AT
11:48 PM EST ON 12/21. ON THAT DAY...THE SUN RISES TO ONLY ABOUT 20
DEGREES ABOVE THE SOUTHERN HORIZON AT LOCAL NOON IN UPPER MICHIGAN.

ARCTIC INVASIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN
DECEMBER...RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR PASSES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. THE RESULT IS
A GREATER FREQUENCY OF LOW CLOUD AND SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH ARE
TYPICALLY HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD OVER HIGHER TERRAIN JUST
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOCATION OF MAXIMUM SNOWFALL IS VERY
DEPENDENT ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION BECAUSE THE LONGEST WIND
FETCH ACROSS THE WATER RESULTS IN GREATEST DESTABILIZATION. A WEST
WIND FAVORS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA; A NORTHWEST WIND USUALLY RESULTS
IN HEAVIER SNOW AROUND ONTONAGON AND IN ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES; AND
A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND CAUSES THE HEAVIEST SNOW AROUND IRONWOOD
AND IN THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE STORM SYSTEMS THAT TYPICALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES CAN ALSO BRING HEAVY
SNOW TO INLAND LOCATIONS...AVERAGE DECEMBER PRECIPITATION IS QUITE A
BIT LESS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.  FOR INSTANCE...THE HOUGHTON
COUNTY AIRPORT PICKS UP 52.9 INCHES OF SNOW AND 3.25 INCHES OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION DURING A TYPICAL DECEMBER. IRON
MOUNTAIN WILL RECEIVE ONLY 14.7 INCHES OF SNOW AND 1.48 INCHES OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION ON AVERAGE. THE HOUGHTON COUNTY
AIRPORT WAS BURIED UNDER 119 INCHES OF SNOW IN DECEMBER 1978. RECORD
SNOWS AT INLAND LOCATIONS ARE CLOSER TO 36 INCHES. IN MORE RECENT
YEARS...HEAVY SNOW FELL IN DECEMBER IN 2008...2000...1996 AND 1995
AT MANY LOCATIONS. ROCKLAND IN ONTONAGON COUNTY MEASURED 127 INCHES
OF THE WHITE STUFF IN DECEMBER 2000. IN DECEMBER 2008...TWIN LAKES
IN HOUGHTON COUNTY LOGGED ALMOST 106 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH LAKE SUPERIOR OFTEN MODERATES THE CHILL OF THE ARCTIC
AIR...BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE COMMON DURING THE TWELFTH MONTH.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE AS LOW AS 36 BELOW ZERO AT IRONWOOD...
OBSERVED DURING A BRUTAL COLD SNAP IN MID DECEMBER 1983 THAT ALSO
DROPPED THE TEMPERATURE TO A MONTHLY RECORD 28 BELOW ZERO AT THE
MARQUETTE NWS. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES RECORDED AT MANY LOCATIONS IN
UPPER MICHIGAN OCCURRED DURING AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK AT THE END OF
DECEMBER 1976...INCLUDING 26 BELOW ZERO AT IRON MOUNTAIN...25 BELOW
ZERO AT MANISTIQUE...21 BELOW ZERO AT MUNISING AND 15 BELOW ZERO AT
THE HOUGHTON COUNTY AIRPORT. DECEMBER 1985 AND DECEMBER 1989 ALSO
SAW FREQUENT ARCTIC INVASIONS WITH MONTHLY TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AS
MUCH 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A COLD WAVE ARRIVED IN DECEMBER 2004
JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS. MORNING LOWS ON CHRISTMAS DAY THAT YEAR FELL
AS LOW AS 34 BELOW ZERO AT CHAMPION IN MARQUETTE COUNTY. MORE
RECENTLY...DECEMBER 2013 FEATURED VERY COLD WEATHER MOST OF THE TIME
AND A MEAN DAILY TEMPERATURE THAT ENDED UP BETWEEN 6 AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. IN FACT...DECEMBER 2013 GOES DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS
AMONG THE TOP 10 COLDEST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.

DECEMBER 1994 GOES DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS ONE OF THE WARMEST
AND LEAST SNOWY IN UPPER MICHIGAN HISTORY WITH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MANY PLACES PICKING UP LESS THAN 10
INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW. THE MARQUETTE NWS AND NEWBERRY ALL OBSERVED
THEIR WARMEST DECEMBER EVER. ALTHOUGH BROWN CHRISTMASES ARE RARE IN
UPPER MICHIGAN (BEFORE 1994 DOWNTOWN MARQUETTE OBSERVED A BROWN
CHRISTMAS IN 1923...1931... 1941...1946...1957 AND 1982)...MANY
LOCATIONS THAT YEAR HAD LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND TO GREET
SANTA CLAUS. TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY IN 1994
WERE NEAR 50 OR EVEN HIGHER AT IRONWOOD...IRON MOUNTAIN... NEWBERRY
AND MARQUETTE. MANY RECENT DECEMBERS HAVE ALSO BEEN ON THE MILD
SIDE. IN DECEMBER 2006...MONTHLY TEMPERATURES AVERAGED 5 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE THE MEAN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...AND THE MONTH ENDED
UP AS THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT THE HOUGHTON COUNTY AIRPORT.
SINCE SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN WAS ALSO BELOW NORMAL...
MANY AREAS EAST OF CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE HURON MOUNTAINS SAW A BROWN
CHRISTMAS IN 2006. DECEMBER 2001 WAS THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT
MUNISING...MANISTIQUE...AND ONTONAGON. ON 12/5/2001...RARE DECEMBER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FORMED IN A RECORD WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND PUMMELED IRON AND DICKINSON COUNTIES WITH LARGE HAIL. IRON
MOUNTAIN RECORDED ITS WARMEST DECEMBER IN 1997. THE FIRST SEVERAL
DAYS OF DECEMBER 1998 FEATURED RECORD WARMTH. MONTHLY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE SET AT IRON MOUNTAIN (64 ON 12/4)...IRONWOOD (59
ON 12/4)...MANISTIQUE (59 ON 12/1) AND THE MARQUETTE NWS (59 ON
12/3). BUT THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND HEAVY SNOW THE LAST HALF OF
DECEMBER 1998 PREVENTED THE MONTH FROM GOING DOWN AS ONE OF THE
WARMEST ON RECORD. ALTHOUGH DECEMBER 2002 STARTED ON A COLD
NOTE...TEMPERATURES THE LAST THREE WEEKS OF THE MONTH AVERAGED 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MANY PLACES NOT IMPACTED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
HAD A BROWN CHRISTMAS IN 2002.

                OUTLOOK FOR WINTER INTO EARLY SPRING

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING A GREATER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCE OF AN ABOVE NORMAL 3-MONTH AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
AND BELOW NORMAL 3-MONTH PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN IN
JANUARY THROUGH MARCH 2016. THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ARE DUE TO A PERSISTENT EL NINO IN THE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

GO TO HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CLIMATE/L3MTO.PHP TO ACCESS DETAILED
LOCAL THREE-MONTH AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR A NUMBER OF SITES
IN UPPER MICHIGAN.

CHECK OUT HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AND MORE LONG RANGE PREDICTIONS.

NOTE THAT STATISTICS FOR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP ARE BASED ON RECORDS WHICH BEGAN IN OCTOBER 1961.
THIRTY YEAR NORMALS USED ARE FOR THE PERIOD OF 1981 THROUGH 2010.
NOTE ALL TEMPERATURES ARE IN FAHRENHEIT AND PRECIPITATION IS IN
INCHES. ALL CLIMATE DATA LISTED IN THIS PRODUCT ARE UNOFFICIAL. FOR
OFFICIAL DATA...PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER.
ALSO NOTE THIS DISCUSSION DOES NOT INCLUDE DATA FROM CHIPPEWA AND
MACKINAC COUNTIES.

NWS MARQUETTE WEB PAGE IS AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MQT (ALL LOWER
CASE). CONTACT THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER AT (828) 271-4800
OR WWW.NCDC.NOAA.GOV.

$$

KC



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