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000
FXUS64 KSJT 140324 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1024 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS CROCKETT COUNTY. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
THE BIG BEND WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST NAM AND HRRR SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST COUNTIES TOWARDS
DAYBREAK SO WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS GOING ROUGHLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A SAN ANGELO TO JUNCTION LINE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
ALSO RAISED A FEW DEGREES BASED ON TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL POTENTIALLY
AFFECT THE KSJT AND KBBD TAF SITES DURING THE FIRST HOUR IN THE TAF
PERIOD /00-01Z/. GUSTY WINDS 35-40 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE
STORMS...AND A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CLOUD CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH ACCOMPANIES THIS
CONVECTION. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE
THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LATE NIGHT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE LOOKS MARGINAL FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOLDING OFF WITH A LOW CLOUD MENTION FOR NOW
AND WILL REVISIT THIS WITH THE NEXT /06Z/ TAF PACKAGE. A VFR-BASED
CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY
DURING THE AFTERNOON... WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS ROUGHLY WEST OF A SWEETWATER TO SAN ANGELO TO SONORA LINE.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING THURSDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS /SOUTHWEST OF A
MERTZON TO SONORA LINE/. AT THIS TIME...CARRYING VCSH FOR ALL AREA
TAF SITES EXCEPT KABI FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAY ADJUST THE
TIMING WITH THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WILL HAVE A
POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF CLOUD
CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH ACCOMPANIES SOME OF THE STORMS.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

UPDATE...
WIDLEY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID EVENING SOUTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY. POPS WERE ADDED ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY...HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST
HILL COUNTRY THROUGH MID EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO
45 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

SHORT TERM...
/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE BIG BEND REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NORTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES. PER LATEST RADAR...A LARGE AREA OF ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND COUNTRY EAST
TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY NORTH AND SHOULD ENTER OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH ON A TRACK JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO A POSITION OVER
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE TOMORROW. THE BULK OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR OUR AREA BEING THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH POPS
DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL REFLECT THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WITH MID 80S
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA TO THE MID 90S OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA...WHICH SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. LOOKING FOR
MORNING LOWS TOMORROW IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

LONG TERM...
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO
TODAY. THIS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO WEST TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST AS THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE THE LONE MODEL WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES...AND THE SLOW
MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS...WE MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS. IN
ADDITION...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOLLOWING OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK RIDGING TO
ZONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS
WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE SAME LEVELS AS WERE EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK...SO
HIGHS SHOULD STAY BELOW TRIPLE DIGIT VALUES FOR THE MOST PART.

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY OR JUST SOUTH OF THERE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
RESULT OF A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS CARRY PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND...BUT WILL HOLD POPS NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR FOR NOW AS FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY WEAK AND WESTERLY IN OUR AREA...AND JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT IS QUESTIONABLE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  95  73  90  71  92 /   5   5  10  20  30
SAN ANGELO  94  72  89  71  93 /  20  30  30  30  30
JUNCTION  91  72  86  71  92 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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