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FXAK69 PAFG 112316 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
316 PM AKDT Sat May 11 2024


.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds persist in the Alaska Range this afternoon then
will diminish this evening. Temperatures will be noticeably
warmer today across much of the Interior and West Coast.
Scattered to numerous showers willd develop over the Interior
on Sunday along with a chance of an isolated thunderstorm. A
Flood Watch continues for the Yukon River due to an ice jam 12
miles upstream from Circle. A strong front could impact the
west coast on Tuesday with snow and blowing snow along the
Bering Strait.

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Level Analysis...
Troughing persist over the north slope and a closed low in the
Gulf of Alaska. Weak ridging holding on over the Interior, but
that should weaken and the shortwave in the Gulf will lift
north over the Eastern Interior on Sunday. Ridging will build
over the west coast on Sunday. Weak troughing will persist
over the Interior on Monday then ridging slides to the east
and a strong upper trough will push into the west coast
Tue into Thursday.


West Coast and Western Interior...
High pressure will keep most of the west coast quiet through
the weekend. Highs inland in the 50s and 30s near the coast. There
is a strong shortwave trough dropping south from the Chukchi Sea
bringing some showers and an isolated thunderstorm south and east
of Huslia, but there will be quite a bit of dry air aloft which
may ease any shower chances. Scattered to numerous showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorm in the western Alaska Range on
Sunday and Monday. A strong front will begin to impact the west
coast on Tuesday with strong southerly winds and snow and blowing
snow for Saint Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. A Special
Weather Statement has been issued for potential impacts. There is
still some uncertainity on exact track and timing of the system.

Central and Eastern Interior...
This afternoon will be a few degrees warmer across the Interior
with most locations staying dry. There is a risk for a few showers
in the Northern Interior, but they will be hit or miss.
High temperatures in the 50s to near 60 through this weekend.
Scattered to numerous showers and Isolated thunderstorms are
possible Sunday afternoon and evening and again on Monday along
the thermal trough. Gap winds are still gusty in the Alaska
Range and near Delta Junction this afternoon but should diminish
some tonight.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Areas of locally dense fog will hang around the Arctic Coast with
a few snow showers possible as well, especially for the
Northwestern Arctic Coast. Expect high temperatures in the 20s
along the coast with 30s in the Brooks Range through early next
week. No significant weather hazards are anticipated for the
foreseeable future but we are monitoring the potential for a
Bering Sea low late next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
More of the same across the Interior with showers and Isolated
thunderstorms. The only impactful system we are monitoring is the
potential for a Bering Sea low Tuesday into Thursday. The ECMWF
and GFS both pick up on this feature and are in decent agreement
while the CMC is the outlier bringing a low into the Bering Sea,
then dropping it to the Aleutians. There is a potential for strong
southerly winds along the West Coast with mixed precipitation
and elevated surf along the coast.

.FIRE WEATHER...
High temperatures in the 50s to near 60 through this weekend.
Scattered to numerous showers and Isolated thunderstorms are
possible Sunday afternoon and evening and again on Monday along
the thermal trough. Near red flag conditions this afternoon with
Southerly gap winds of 25 to 40 mph in Isabel Pass. East-
Southeast winds in Delta Junction will gust to 40 mph this
afternoon, then decrease this evening. Near-critical fire weather
conditions are forecast with minimum RH values of 20 to 30%
this afternoon.

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday morning. A
persistent ice jam remains 12 miles upstream from Circle. The jam
has been in place for 5 days without any significant changes.
Since yesterday, water levels have dropped above the ice jam and
downstream at Circle. The braided channels near Circle continue to
melt slowly. Chunk ice and small pans can easily pass by Circle
and across the south bends. A large section of intact ice 4 miles
long remains above Circle. When that breaks up, there is a small
chance it could cause an ice jam and minor flooding. The gradual
breakup trend is expected to continue with the ice at Fort Yukon
slowly breaking up over the next few days.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853-854.
&&

$$