111
FXUS61 KBGM 040532
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
132 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers will be across the area this weekend, as a slow
moving front pushes through finally late Sunday. High pressure
looks to be short lived Monday and Tuesday, before another
frontal boundary and areas of low pressure move through the rest
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 am update...

With mid and high clouds across the area now increased cloud
cover to mostly cloudy or cloudy today. Tonight and Sunday with
rain showers made skies cloudy. Upped temperatures for most and
especially in the Finger Lakes early this morning. Temperatures
there still in the 60s with clouds and sprinkles. Not much
chance of falling into the low 50s there.

930 PM Update...

Showers continue to slowly creep eastward. With timing a little
slower than expected and drier conditions over the region, PoPs
were cut back slightly. Meanwhile, mid to high level clouds
have pushed into the region. These will continue to spread
eastward, resulting in mostly cloudy skies over the region. As
a result, sky cover was increased through the early morning
hours tomorrow. This cloud cover may help slow down cooling of
temperatures. While no adjustments were made to the lows, temps
were held slightly warmer over the next few hours.

645 PM Update...

There was not much to change with this update. Sky cover was
lowered some, at least until the showers from the west move in.
The slow moving showers are expected to move in later this
evening, so PoPs were left untouched for now. Temperatures and
dew points were touched up based on the latest conditions. Most
locations are still in the 70s. Otherwise, conditions remain
quiet for now as we monitor the showers in western NY and PA.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure in place across our region will attempt to slow
down a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. This should
keep most of the showers with the front west and south of the
region through most of Saturday. Though a few of the models have
a glancing blow from some light showers in NE PA and west of
the Finger Lakes in NY. Coverage of showers should ramp up
Saturday night given increasing moisture and lift ahead of the
frontal boundary. QPF through Saturday night looks to be a half
inch or less, so no concern for flooding issues. Instability
also looks to be very little if any does happen to develop.

Temperatures tonight look to be a few degrees warmer due to
clouds only falling to around 50 then struggle to rise into the
low 60`s on Saturday. Lows look to end up a few degrees cooler
Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
120 PM Update...

Zonal flow pattern aloft keeps conditions relatively active during
this period. Rain showers are expected to continue on Sunday as an
occluded front slowly moves eastwards. Meanwhile a low pressure
system over the Great Lakes drags a cold front into our region by
Sunday evening. This will bring more showers with a few
thunderstorms possible in the evening hours. Rainfall amounts are up
to a quarter inch but any evening thunderstorms that develop could
drop an inch of rain. Instability parameters are weak on model
guidance, therefore not expecting much concern with these storms.
Temperatures cool on Sunday with highs ranging in the low 50s to low
60s. Overnight temperatures are not expected to deviate far off
of daytime highs. Lows will range in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

A secondary cold front could bring some scattered rain showers
Monday through Monday night. Not expecting a lot of rain with this
system as the levels remain relatively dry. Precip chances are more
favorable to the south of our region. Otherwise once this weak
system moves thorough conditions remain dry overnight with brief high
pressure building in over the Great Lakes. Temperatures on
Monday will climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s in the afternoon
and fall into the upper 40s to low 50s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
120 PM Update...

A warm front draped over the midwest approaches the region on
Tuesday. Model guidance shows some timing differences in the
arrival of this system. Regardless showers are expected to move
in at least by the evening time frame and last overnight. This
should leave most of Tuesday precipitation free. As of now
Tuesday appears to be the driest day during this period. Warm
front passes sometime Wednesday through Thursday bringing in
more rain showers with afternoon thunderstorms. Similar pattern
continues into Friday as well with yet another disturbance
moving into the region. Otherwise temperatures during this
period will remain mild with highs in the upper 60 to upper 70s
and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
120 AM Update

VFR to prevail areawide into the afternoon. Conditions fall from
south to north late today and tonight.

AVP will be the first to fall to MVFR with rain showers around
20z. Fuel alternate around 23z. BGM/ELM drop to MVFR around 22z
then fuel alternate around 01z. ITH drop to MVFR around 00z.

Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 kts this morning. This
afternoon and tonight winds will be 10 with gusts to 15 to 20
kts.

Outlook...

Overnight tonight through Sunday night...Periods of rain will
bring restrictions to the entire forecast area. Looking mainly
MVFR to MVFR fuel Alternate, but some occasional IFR
restrictions are also possible, mainly on Sunday.

Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then
becoming VFR.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Increasing chance of rain and
restrictions. Embedded thunder also possible on Wednesday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC
NEAR TERM...BTL/MWG/TAC
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...TAC