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000
FXUS64 KBMX 251855
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
155 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024

The weak surface front has stalled out as expected near the U.S.
80/I-85 corridors early this afternoon. Dewpoints north of the
boundary are running in the upper 40s to lower 50s while 60s
dewpoints were observed across the far south. You can also
pinpoint where the front resides looking at visible satellite
imagery and where low-level cumulus clouds have formed. Meanwhile,
an upper level shortwave impulse within northwesterly flow at
500mb aided in the development of widespread showers and storms
across Arkansas, western Tennessee, and northern Mississippi. As
this activity attempts to move southeastward, most development is
expected to dissipate due to dry air remaining in place over
Alabama and Georgia. However, as the surface front lifts
northward as a warm front later today through the overnight, a
slight chance of showers or a storm remains in the forecast for
far western counties this afternoon. Northern and northeastern
counties could see some isolated activity overnight through early
Friday morning. Temperatures will be mild overnight with the warm
front moving northward, ranging from the mid 50s north to the
lower 60s south.

Increasing upper level heights on Friday will lead to very warm
temperatures with southerly flow at the surface. Although it
hasn`t been officially added to the forecast, we could see some
isolated convective activity in our far northeast counties based
on the latest CAMs. The old surface boundary will still be hanging
around as a wedge of cooler air tries to push westward from
northern Georgia. So far, I don`t have enough confidence to
include in the forecast just yet, but I wouldn`t rule out us
having to add a slight chance PoP from Cleburne County northward
to Cherokee County Friday afternoon. Under partly cloudy skies,
we`ll start to feel more like summer as highs reach the low to mid
80s, approaching the upper 80s in Pike and Barbour Counties.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024

Previous forecast thinking remains valid. Monday afternoon into
Tuesday looks to be the most active period of the extended, with
chances for rain and thunderstorms mainly in the northern and
western counties of Central Alabama. Very little rainfall, if any,
is currently forecast for the southeast corner, south of I-85,
through Wednesday. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s each day
with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s each night.

12

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 25 2024

Two significant shortwave ejections will occur across the Plains
and Midwest over the course of the Friday night through Sunday
period. Meanwhile a ridge will remain in place over the Southeast
CONUS through most of Monday. Eventually the second trough in the
Plains should progress eastward on Monday afternoon and Tuesday
with increasing rain chances mainly north of I-59. Models continue
to indicate a cold front that weakens on approach, and the
southern portions of our area may remain dry through Wednesday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with
light or variable winds today and tonight. Southerly to
southeasterly surface winds will return on Friday, remaining under
10 knots.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A weak front in the area will allow for isolated showers/storms this
afternoon and evening over northern counties. 20ft winds will be
light and variable through tonight, with minimum RH values this
afternoon of 28 to 35 in the north, central, and southeast, and 35
to 45 percent south and southwest. Friday, 20ft winds increase from
the south at 6-12 mph, with minimum RH values of 35 to 45 percent.
Rainfree conditions continue through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  83  63  82 /  20  10   0   0
Anniston    58  82  63  82 /  10  10   0   0
Birmingham  61  84  65  82 /  20  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  61  85  64  84 /  10   0   0   0
Calera      61  83  64  82 /  10  10   0   0
Auburn      62  82  63  81 /  10  10   0   0
Montgomery  62  86  66  85 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        61  86  64  84 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...56