129
FXUS61 KBTV 100559
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
159 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue through much of the next
week with chances for showers nearly every day. It`ll be handy to
have an umbrella or rain jacket nearby but outdoor plans shouldn`t
be impacted as no heavy rainfall is expected at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 159 AM EDT Friday...No significant changes needed with
the early morning update. Have updated PoPs to peel back any
rain chances further; aside from very light showers over the
southern Greens it`s looking dry through at least mid-morning
across our region.

Previous Discussion...

Another round of showers is on tap for Friday although coverage
remains uncertain at this time. The upper level flow is
expected to split with weak high pressure over much of the North
Country which should shunt the bulk of shower activity south of
the region. The latest high-res guidance is showing most shower
activity will be focused across the southern Greens and
Adirondack Mountains with less coverage elsewhere. Nevertheless,
we don`t expect a washout by any means on Friday but it might
be handy to have an umbrella or rain jacket.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 248 PM EDT Thursday...Scattered showers can be expected this
weekend as an upper level trough swings across the region. While
neither day this weekend looks to be a complete wash-out, the
weather will remain fairly unsettled. The best chances for
measurable precipitation will be across northern New York Saturday
afternoon into the evening. Temperatures this weekend be on the cool
side, with high temperatures several degrees below normal with 925mb
temperatures ranging from 2C to 5C. Daytime highs this weekend will
top out in the 50s to low 60s, although if the sun is able to break
through clouds temperatures could warm even more under the May sun
angle. Overnight lows will be more seasonable given cloud cover,
with temperatures generally in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 248 PM EDT Thursday...Unsettled weather continues as we head
into next week, with continued chances for showers as several
shortwaves pass through the region. There continues to be some
uncertainty regarding the timing and location of precipitation given
the upper level pattern, with the forecast relying on blended
guidance, but continued chances of scattered to numerous rain
showers are expected for most of next week. The showers look to be
more nuisance-type showers rather than impactful rain or
thunderstorms. Temperatures next week look to be seasonable, with
daytime highs in the 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s to
low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions will continue through the
period under BKN-OVC mid and high clouds. Isolated showers
will be possible Friday afternoon, leading to a very low chance
of flight category fluctuations. Variable winds less than 5kts
will perk up into the 5-10kts range during the day. Winds will
be mostly out of the northeast except southeast at RUT and MPV,
and northwest at BTV. These winds will trend light and variable
again after 00Z.


Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Kutikoff/Lahiff