389
FXUS63 KDVN 091950
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
250 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will end from north to
  south this evening.

- Strong gusty winds are possible in thunderstorms Friday
  night.

- Warm next week with increasing chances of shower and storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

An elongated trough at 500 MB stretches from Colorado into the
Great Lakes and sits across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois
early this afternoon. There are widespread to scattered rain
showers across the area early this afternoon. Isolated
thunderstorms have remained to the northwest of the area.
Temperatures across the area are in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The elongated trough is forecast to sink south of the area
tonight bring rain to an end from north to south between 7 PM
and 1 AM. Im the wake of this storm system, the flow aloft will
become northwesterly with shortwave ridging building into the
area Thursday night into Friday morning. This will bring quiet
weather to the area during that period. The only fly in the
ointment is that models do show lots of low level moisture in
the area. The question is will there be enough for patchy fog or
maybe light drizzle across the area. This will be dependent on
how much clearing occurs tonight. Low temperatures on Friday
morning will be in the mid to upper 40s across the area. High
temperatures on Friday will be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Friday night: Northwest flow aloft across the area as a strong
shortwave troughs digs from the Upper Midwest into eastern Iowa
and northwest Illinois late Friday afternoon into Friday
evening. This will also bring a cold front across the area
Friday night. Model soundings ahead of this wave show limited
instability with inverted V forecast soundings. Models show a
line of scattered line of showers and storms developing to our
northwest and giving southeastward across the area Friday night.
Inverted V soundings coupled with less moisture across the area
indicate that gusty winds will be the main threat. Severe
weather is not anticipated at this time.

Saturday: A very pleasant day is in store weak high pressure
building into the area. Highs will be around 70.

Sunday through Wednesday: Active period again with periodic
rounds of showers and thunderstorms as another deep trough
comes out of the Rockies and into the middle of the country.
However, way too early to determine severe threats or rainfall
amounts. Highs will be well into the 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed
across the area this morning and are slowly sinking southward
across eastern Iowa. There are MVFR to periods of IFR
conditions with these showers. They are expected to move into
KBRL by 20 to 21 UTC this afternoon. Expecting these showers to
continue into the early evening before coming to an end from
north to south between and 00 and 06 UTC. Winds will become
light and variable tonight but in general during the day winds
will be northerly at 10 to 20 mph. Conditions will improve to
VFR after 06 UTC. There is a chance for 3 to 5 mile fog to
develop across the area from 09 to 14 UTC but confidence is low
in this occurring at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 911 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

River flood watches continue for small parts of the Cedar, Iowa
and Wapsipinicon Rivers.

Rainfall from last night and forecast rainfall into this
evening will cause the Cedar, Iowa and Wapsipinicon Rivers to
rise over the next week. However, there is uncertainty regarding
the amount of forecasted rainfall. If the rainfall is less than
expected, rises will still occur on these rivers but they could
remain below flood stage. If, on the other hand, rainfall is
heavier than forecast, more locations along Cedar, Iowa and
Wapsipinicon Rivers could go into flood.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins/Haase
AVIATION...Cousins
HYDROLOGY...8