Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
475
FNUS52 KILM 141218
FWFILM
Fire Weather Planning Forecast
for Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
818 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
.DISCUSSION...
A broad storm system will affect the area through mid week. Dry
conditions are expected by late week followed by another unsettled
period next weekend.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is None.
NCZ105>110-150430-
Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Including the cities of Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro,
Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate,
Boiling Spring Lakes, Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach,
Southport, and Sunset Beach
818 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Today Tonight Wed
Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Pcldy
Precip Chance (%) 100 60 60
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 4
Max/Min Temp 75 64 85
Min/Max RH (%) 77 99 63
Wind20ft/Early (mph) SE 7 G21 S 7 G22 SW 6
Wind20ft/Late (mph) SE 12 G26 SW 7 SW 9 G17
Precip Amount 0.92 0.32 0.15
Precip Duration 10 5 5
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 69/0700 1900 71/0900
Dispersion Good
Haines Index 3 3 3
DSI 1 2
Mixing Hgt (ft) 1900 3900
Transport Wind (mph) SE 28 SW 16
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 53200 62400
ADI Early 42 Gen Good 25 Fair 41 Gen Good
ADI Late 46 Gen Good 11 Poor 51 Gen Good
Max LVORI Early 5 6 8
Max LVORI Late 4 7 3
Min VSBY Early 4 Rain 2 Rain 7
Min VSBY Late 2 Rain 6 Rain 6 Rain
Turner Stability C D B
Remarks...Brotak Profile Present.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
96 percent. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH
58 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
95 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH
54 percent. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the upper 60s. Maximum RH 98 percent. Chance of showers
50 percent. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 68 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
97 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 56 percent. Chance of showers 30 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
98 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 56 percent. Chance of showers 30 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
$$
NCZ087-096-099-150430-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-
Including the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, Bladenboro,
Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn, and Lake Waccamaw
818 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Today Tonight Wed
Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Pcldy
Precip Chance (%) 100 50 70
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 5
Max/Min Temp 74 65 84
Min/Max RH (%) 83 100 59
Wind20ft/Early (mph) SE 5 S 5 SW 6
Wind20ft/Late (mph) SE 8 G18 SW 5 SW 8
Precip Amount 0.89 0.24 0.11
Precip Duration 11 5 4
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 68/0900 1900 69/0900
Dispersion Fair
Haines Index 3 3 3
DSI 1 2
Mixing Hgt (ft) 1800 4100
Transport Wind (mph) SE 21 W 15
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 37800 61500
ADI Early 33 Fair 25 Fair 34 Fair
ADI Late 43 Gen Good 8 Poor 56 Gen Good
Max LVORI Early 6 8 8
Max LVORI Late 4 8 3
Min VSBY Early 3 Rain 4 Rain 7
Min VSBY Late 2 Rain 6 Rain 6 Rain
Turner Stability C D C
Remarks...Brotak Profile Present.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH 98 percent.
Chance of precipitation 70 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH
54 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
96 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH
51 percent. East winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 99 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 65 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
96 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 53 percent. Chance of showers 30 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
97 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 80s. Minimum RH 49 percent. Chance of showers 30 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
$$
SCZ054>056-058-059-150430-
Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-
Northern Horry-
Including the cities of Myrtle Beach, Socastee,
North Myrtle Beach, Garden City, Little River, Andrews,
Georgetown, Murrells Inlet, Conway, Longs, Bucksport, Loris,
Green Sea, and Aynor
818 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Today Tonight Wed
Cloud Cover Mcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Precip Chance (%) 100 50 50
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 4
Max/Min Temp 77 65 86
Min/Max RH (%) 85 100 57
Wind20ft/Early (mph) SE 5 G18 SW 5 SW 6
Wind20ft/Late (mph) S 7 G19 SW 6 SW 9
Precip Amount 0.81 0.16 0.14
Precip Duration 10 5 2
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 69/0700 1900 71/0900
Dispersion Fair
Haines Index 3 3 3
DSI 1 3
Mixing Hgt (ft) 2500 5100
Transport Wind (mph) SW 15 W 20
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 37500 102000
ADI Early 34 Fair 26 Fair 59 Gen Good
ADI Late 37 Fair 8 Poor 79 Good
Max LVORI Early 6 7 8
Max LVORI Late 4 8 3
Min VSBY Early 3 Rain 6 Rain 7
Min VSBY Late 2 Rain 6 Rain 6 Rain
Turner Stability C D B
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
96 percent. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH
57 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
95 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH
57 percent. East winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 99 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 68 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
99 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 55 percent. Chance of showers 30 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
99 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 56 percent. Chance of showers 30 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
$$
SCZ032-033-039-150430-
Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Including the cities of Florence, Marion, Mullins, and Kingstree
818 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Today Tonight Wed
Cloud Cover Mcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Precip Chance (%) 90 50 50
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 4
Max/Min Temp 77 64 85
Min/Max RH (%) 84 100 55
Wind20ft/Early (mph) SE 4 Lgt/Var SW 6
Wind20ft/Late (mph) S 5 SW 5 SW 9
Precip Amount 0.72 0.19 0.15
Precip Duration 10 5 2
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 68/0900 2000 69/0900
Dispersion Poor
Haines Index 3 3 3
DSI 2 3
Mixing Hgt (ft) 2800 4900
Transport Wind (mph) SW 13 W 18
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 36400 88200
ADI Early 31 Fair 30 Fair 56 Gen Good
ADI Late 39 Fair 7 Poor 88 Good
Max LVORI Early 8 8 8
Max LVORI Late 4 8 3
Min VSBY Early 3 Rain 7 7
Min VSBY Late 3 Rain 7 6 Rain
Turner Stability C E B
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
97 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH
54 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
96 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 53 percent. Chance of showers 30 percent.
Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Minimum RH 65 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
99 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 53 percent. Chance of showers 30 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
99 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 80s. Minimum RH 50 percent. Chance of showers 30 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
$$
SCZ017-023-024-150430-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-
Including the cities of Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville,
Darlington, North Hartsville, and Dillon
818 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Today Tonight Wed
Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Pcldy
Precip Chance (%) 100 50 70
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 5
Max/Min Temp 75 65 84
Min/Max RH (%) 88 100 59
Wind20ft/Early (mph) E 6 Lgt/Var SW 6
Wind20ft/Late (mph) SE 6 SW 5 SW 8
Precip Amount 0.71 0.15 0.12
Precip Duration 10 5 4
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 67/0900 2000 67/0800
Dispersion Poor
Haines Index 3 3 3
DSI 1 2
Mixing Hgt (ft) 2100 4300
Transport Wind (mph) S 13 W 15
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 27300 64500
ADI Early 23 Fair 22 Fair 34 Fair
ADI Late 31 Fair 6 Very Poor 53 Gen Good
Max LVORI Early 8 8 8
Max LVORI Late 4 8 3
Min VSBY Early 3 Rain 6 Rain 7
Min VSBY Late 3 Rain 6 Rain 6 Rain
Turner Stability C E B
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
99 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH
54 percent. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Maximum RH
95 percent. North winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 55 percent. Chance of showers 40 percent.
Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 100 percent.
South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 67 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
97 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the mid
80s. Minimum RH 53 percent. Chance of showers 30 percent. West
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Maximum RH
98 percent. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 80s. Minimum RH 50 percent. Chance of showers 30 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
$$
.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal. Precipitation above normal.
$$
SC USERS NC USERS
===================================================================
VENTILATION RATE BURN CATEGORY VENTILATION RATE
===================================================================
NOT USED 0 0 TO 14759
0 TO 17249 1 14760 TO 33499
17250 TO 34499 2 33500 TO 44999
34500 TO 51749 3 45000 TO 59999
51750 TO 68999 4 60000 TO 111999
69000 OR GREATER 5 112000 OR GREATER
SC USERS NC USERS
===================================================================
FORECAST SURFACE WIND DISPERSION FORECAST SURFACE WIND
===================================================================
STAGNANT NEAR CALM
CALM VERY POOR 2 TO 4 MPH
2 TO 5 MPH POOR 5 TO 8 MPH
6 TO 8 MPH FAIR 9 TO 12 MPH
9 TO 13 MPH GOOD GREATER THAN 12 MPH
14 MPH OR MORE EXCELLENT
ADI is Atmospheric Dispersion Index by LAVDAS.
LVORI is Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index.
$$