Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 190850
SWOD48
SPC AC 190850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY REMAINS PREVALENT S
OF AN OSCILLATING SURFACE FRONT...OVERLAPPING WITH AT LEAST THE SRN
FRINGE OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS. BUT RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY IN
MOST GUIDANCE HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT TREND IS TOWARD A MORE
AMPLIFIED IMPULSE IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS...WITH THE ECMWF FARTHER N WITH THE TRACK INTO
THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES THAN THE CMC/GFS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH...A PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW REGIME APPEARS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DAILY BOUTS OF ORGANIZED MESOSCALE SEVERE EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP...BUT PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW ATTM
TO SPATIALLY DEPICT 30 PERCENT OR GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR ANY
INDIVIDUAL DAY.

..GRAMS.. 06/19/2013
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