666
FXAK68 PAFC 011339
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
539 AM AKDT Wed May 1 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday night)...

Another cloudy and otherwise seasonable day is on deck for much of
southcentral Alaska. GOES satellite imagery shows a large upper-
level low currently across the eastern Aleutians near the Alaska
Peninsula, with an associated front stretching from the north
Pacific into the AK Peninsula close to Kodiak Island. Meanwhile,
ridging exists across northern BC into YT and into eastern
southcentral Alaska. Radar imagery shows showery activity across the
Gulf of Alaska and into the Kenai Peninsula northward into the
Susitna Valley.

Shower activity will continue through the morning and through at
least the first half of the day as shortwave energy moves across
marginally unstable air in the lower atmosphere. Precipitation
amounts will generally be light and spotty through the Kenai
Peninsula up through Mat-Su Valley. Southeast gap winds will
increase today in response to a strengthening pressure gradient with
the approach of the aforementioned front.  Gusts of 25 to 35 mph are
not out of the question across Turnagain Arm, West Anchorage and the
Hillside, the Kink River Valley, and the Copper River Valley.

Rain will be near continuous for Kodiak Island from later this
afternoon through much of Thursday. Rainfall amounts in Kodiak City
should be near an inch, with higher amounts in the mountains. The
same frontal system will bring rain to the southern and coastal
Kenai Peninsula into the PWS Thursday into Friday, with downsloping
easterly flow keeping the west side of the Peninsula and Anchorage
largely dry.

-Brown

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday night)...

A weakening low in the southern Bering Sea extends an occluded
front across the Alaska Peninsula this morning, where it is
bringing rain and gusty southeasterly winds. Ahead of the front,
weak shortwaves lifting across Southwest Alaska are producing
light rain with isolated to scattered showers. Southeasterly winds
will increase this morning as the front pushes north into
Southwest Alaska, reaching the northern Bristol Bay coast by this
afternoon. Models are increasingly dry with this front, and the
southeasterly downslope flow will act to suppress most shower
activity. Rain will be most likely along the front near Dillingham
today, however, some isolated showers will be possible elsewhere,
with scattered showers most likely in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley
this afternoon/evening. Precipitation will wane across Southwest
Alaska heading into Thursday as the front slowly lifts north and
continues to weaken.

Out west, a low tracks into the western Bering Sea, its front
pushing into the western Aleutians this evening with rain and gale
force easterly winds. The front pushes quickly north and east,
reaching the Pribilof Islands and the southern tip of the Alaska
Peninsula by Thursday night. A few inches of snow is possible for
the Saint Paul and Saint George as the front lifts north through
Friday. As the front lifts toward Southwest Alaska, accompanying
upper-level troughing moving into the area promotes increasingly
wetter conditions for the end of the week.

CQ

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

A weakening upper level ridge slips towards the Arctic Coast and
recedes into Canada through the forecast period. A very broad
upper level trough stretches from the Russian Far East across the
Bering and Alaska Peninsula and Gulf of Alaska. This trough is
well supported by an elongated jet along the Aleutians into the
Gulf throughout the weekend, while the body of the trough persists
over the Northern Bering. Ensemble means maintain good confidence
through Tuesday. A well clustered upper low entering Bristol Bay
Saturday moves into the Gulf of Alaska for Monday before shifting
to the upper Southeast Panhandle by the end of the period. This
low will also initiate moderate cold air along the Alaskan West
Coast and bring somewhat below normal surface temperatures across
Western Alaska.

The main low brings gusty Westerly winds along the Aleutians and
AKPEN, with a second wind area moving along the West Coast from
the North through Sunday. A large area of rainfall spreads across
the Aleutians and Bering across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska,
with locally heavier amounts expected across Southcentral zones
through Tuesday. Another round of widespread precipitations moves
over the Western Aleutians and Bering on Sunday and moves East
through Tuesday.


- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds are expected to pick up again
this afternoon before diminishing tonight. Winds thereafter should
remain light out of the north.

&&


$$