Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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959 FXUS61 KAKQ 010622 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 222 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front slowly crosses the area today triggering scattered showers and storms across southeastern portions of the area this afternoon into this evening. Dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the region. Rain chances return this weekend as a series of disturbances impact the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday... A weak/decaying cold front slowly pushes through the area this morning, eventually making its way south of the area this evening. CAMs continue to focus the best shower/thunderstorm chances across northeast North Carolina (along the Albemarle Sound) later this afternoon through this evening, with lesser rain chances further north and west. Cannot completely rule out a stronger thunderstorm closer to the Albemarle Sound with the 00z HREF showing ~1000 J/kg of SBCAPE (wind shear will be the limiting factor) developing this afternoon. If a stronger storm were to develop, strong wind gusts would be the primary threat. Any storms that develop may also produce some locally heavy rainfall, though flooding issues are not anticipated due to the dry conditions over the past month. Much of the area north of the North Carolina border likely stays fairly dry today, outside of a chance for a scattered shower or storm across portions of southside Hampton Roads/SE VA (~30-40% PoPs). Skies will range from partly sunny to mostly cloudy, with a gradual clearing trend from the NW this afternoon into this evening. High temperatures will generally be in the lower 80s for most locations away from the immediate coast. Along the coast, high temperatures will range from the upper 60s to upper 70s (coolest along the Atlantic beaches of the Maryland Eastern Shore). Any shower/storm activity comes to an end shortly after sunset this evening, with dry conditions returning tonight. Lows will range through the 50s, under a clear to partly cloudy sky. Models and forecast soundings continue to hint at fog development later tonight into early Thursday morning, especially for areas along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday... The cold front will be fairly weak/decaying by the time it moves through the local area Wed into Wed evening. Latest CAMs focus the majority of the shower/tstm chances across SE portions of the forecast area Wed aftn into early Wed evening, with the forecast trending drier for locations farther NNW. Total QPF will generally be ~0.10-0.25" across SE portions of the area (locally higher in tstms). Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Any shower/storm activity comes to an end shortly after sunset Wed evening, with dry conditions returning for Wed night. Lows will range through the 50s, under a clear to partly cloudy sky. Will have to watch for the potential for areas of fog late Wed night into Thu morning. Dry wx expected for Thu and Fri, as upper ridge builds back over the Eastern US then just offshore. Mostly sunny and very warm on Thu with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland/Piedmont, and in the mid 70s to lower 80s closer to the coast (due to a SE or S wind). Partly to mostly sunny on Fri with highs mainly in the mid 80s inland/Piedmont, and ranging through the 70s to around 80 near the Bay/coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday... Unsettled conditions are expected for late Fri night into Tue. A frontal boundary, along with areas of low pressure along it will affect the region Sat into Sun night, bringing a good chance of showers/tstms across the entire area. Clouds, rain, and an onshore wind will keep temps cooler on Sat and Sun. Highs on Sat will range from the mid to upper 60s NE, to the mid to upper 70s SSW. Highs on Sun will mainly range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Increasingly warmer Mon and Tue, but there will be slight to small chances for mainly aftn/early evening showers or tstms, due to the proximity of a trough. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s Mon, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tue. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions will prevail through the 06z TAF period. BKN/OVC high/mid level clouds will persist early this morning. Showers and a few storms are possible later this afternoon, mainly at ECG, so have kept VCSH and VCTS wording (best chances for storms from ~21z to 00z). Patchy fog may try to develop late in the period, especially near the coast. Winds are generally starting out SW 5-10 kt and become W and NW as a weak front drops southward. ENE winds are likely toward the end of the period. Outlook: Sub-VFR VSBYs are possible early Thursday morning due to patchy fog. Latest model guidance really keys in on SE VA and NE NC, with the 00z HREF showing a 70 to 80% for VSBYs less than 2SM early Thursday morning at ORF, PHF, and ECG and ~40% chance at RIC and SBY. Dry/VFR conditions are then expected later Thursday morning through Friday. There is chance for showers/thunderstorms and potentially sub-VFR conditions from late Friday night through Sunday with the next front. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: - Sub-SCA conditions expected through the end of the week and into the weekend. A cold front continues to approach from the NW this afternoon with sfc high pressure anchored off the SE CONUS coast. It is a bit breezy with SW winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt (a few higher gusts have been observed right at the land/water interface with peak daytime mixing over land). Seas are generally 3-4.5 ft. The front is expected to cross the local waters tonight-Wed. Breezy conditions continue through the evening with S-SW winds of 10-15 kt. Winds diminish to 5-10 kt and turn to the W then NE through the day Wed as the front crosses the waters. Winds turn back to the south on Thu (and remain 5-10 kt) before becoming E-NE at 10-15 kt Fri-Sat AM as another weak front crosses the waters. Seas remain 3-4 ft through tonight, with a few 5 ft seas possible out near 20nm off the eastern shore, but will not issue SCAs. Seas drop back to 2-3ft by Wed evening and may build back to 3-4 ft by Fri night. Waves stay at 1-2 ft through most of the week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB NEAR TERM...AJB SHORT TERM...AJB/TMG LONG TERM...AJB/TMG AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AM/ERI