830
FXUS61 KALY 031410
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1010 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region this morning will shift eastward
to the New England coast during the afternoon. This high will
provide continued dry conditions through tonight. The high will
only move slightly east off the coast through Saturday, with a
frontal system slowly approaching from the west. Clouds will
increase on Saturday, with chances for showers developing west
of the Hudson Valley. Showers will become more likely by Sunday
as the system tracks east across the area with cool
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Just some thin high clouds over most of eastern NY but there are
some more widespread lower clouds along the New England border
into western New ENgland due to light winds from the south and
east. The clouds in western New England are slowly eroding and
there will be some periods of sun later today in those areas.
Lots of sun in eastern NY through the this high clouds.

12Z area soundings show mixing potential supports current
forecasted high temperatures across the region. Just minor
adjustments to temperatures and sky cove through this afternoon.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
Surface high pressure over the region this morning slides east
into New England this afternoon, with an upper level ridge axis
moving overhead through the day. This will result in continued
dry conditions, with just some increasing high level clouds.
Patchy low stratus clouds in place across northern/eastern parts
of the area should mix out by late morning. A cooler onshore SE
flow will keep temperatures cooler than that past few days.
Highs will be mainly in the 60s to lower 70s.

Upper level ridge axis gradually shifts east of the area
tonight, as a weak disturbance approaching from the west
slightly flattens out the ridge. High/mid level clouds will
increase thicken from west to east, with a few sprinkles
possible west of the Hudson Valley. Dry low levels should
preclude any measurable rainfall. With mostly cloudy skies lows
will be somewhat mild in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday looks to be the pick of the weekend days in terms of
mostly dry weather with near normal temperatures. The surface
high is forecast to remain positioned off the New England coast,
while ridging aloft is re-established across the Northeast. A
slow-moving frontal system will continue to gradually inch
eastward from the Great Lakes. The front may get close enough to
provide enough forcing for scattered showers mainly west of the
Hudson Valley during the afternoon. Highs looks to be close to
normal ranging from the upper 50s in the higher terrain to upper
60s in valleys.

Better moisture(PWAT anomalies increasing to +1 to +2 STDEV)
and forcing start to arrive Sat night, especially late in the
overnight, as the upper ridge axis breaks down with a stronger
short wave moving in from the west. Will mention likely PoPs
west of the Hudson Valley and chance east. Lows will be mainly
in the 40s to near 50.

Southerly flow increases ahead of the front as it advances into
western NY on Sunday. Moisture will continue to surge northward
ahead of the boundary, with the aforementioned short wave
trough aloft moving eastward across the region. This will result
in showers likely across the entire area for much of the day.
With the clouds/showers around and a persistent low level S-SE
breeze, it will be a cool/raw day with highs only in the 50s
with even some 40s in the highest elevations. Rainfall amounts
generally look to be around 0.50-1.00", with the max focused on
the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks. These rainfall
amounts will not cause any hydro concerns.

The surface front and short wave aloft move into New England
Sun night, with showers tapering off from west to east mainly
during the evening. At this time it appears the overnight hours
should be mainly dry with high pressure building from the west
and a developing W-NW flow ushering in drier air. Lows expected
to be similar to recent nights with mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Long term begins at 12z Monday with the cold front departing
off to our east. There could be a few lingering showers around
during the morning, especially across western New England, but
overall we should see a drying trend as we head through the day.
Monday afternoon through Tuesday, upper ridging amplifies to
our west with upper troughing to our north in southeast Canada.
This will lead to upper confluence near our region and allow a
ridge of high pressure to build in from the northwest. With
large-scale subsidence, Monday afternoon through Tuesday should
be dry. With cold/dry advection and deep mixing behind the
front, we bumped temperatures up a few degrees above NBM
guidance. Highs Monday and Tuesday will range from upper 60s in
the high terrain to mid/upper 70s for the valleys. Lows Monday
night will be mainly in the 40s to 50s.

Tuesday night through Thursday night...A warm front approaches
from the southwest Tuesday night or Wednesday, bringing with it
a chance for some showers. However, the exact timing of the warm
front remains uncertain at this time. Beyond that, we get into
a pattern with broad, positively tilted upper troughing over the
center of the country and flat upper ridging to our east. This
puts our region in an area of deep, persistent SW flow aloft.
With an active jet stream to our west/northwest, there will be
several disturbances aloft tracking through our area over the
middle to end of next week. While it is too early to
specifically time out any of these features, Wednesday through
the end of next week looks to be unsettled, so will mention
chance PoPs for the entirety of the second half of the long term
period. Some thunder may be possible depending on the timing of
these disturbances relative to peak daytime heating. With
persistent southwest flow and warm advection, highs each day
will be in the 60s to 70s with overnight lows in the 40s to 50s.
The second half of the week also looks more humid compared to
Monday and Tuesday. For days 8-14, we may remain in an unsettled
pattern with the CPC expecting above normal precip and near
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions as of 6:15 AM EDT
except at PSF where MVFR cigs are in place due to low stratus.
The low stratus will continue to impact the terminals through
the next few hours with some MVFR cigs, but has not been able to
expand southwestwards as rapidly as previously expected. Will
continue tempo groups through 13-14z to highlight the
possibility of MVFR cigs, but all TAF sites should see
improvement back to VFR conditions by 14z. VFR conditions then
continue through at least midnight tonight with FEW to SCT mid
and high clouds around. Overnight tonight, southeasterly winds
may allow for more low stratus to develop, especially at
ALB/PSF/POU. Will refine the timing and cigs associated with
this low stratus with future TAF issuances.

Winds will be from the east at 5 kt or less through early to
mid- morning, then becoming southeasterly at 5-10 kt from mid to
late morning through the remainder of the TAF period at ALB and
through around 6z tonight at GFL/PSF/POU, then becoming light
and variable at these 3 sites through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Main