Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 190752
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
252 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the mid 60s in the west
to low 70s in the east. Winds will be southwesterly at 15 to 20 mph
through much of the day before beginning to weaken in the northwest
in the afternoon, afterward gradually weakening southeastward as the
surface pressure gradient loosens.

Attention will turn to the cutoff upper-level trough that has been
lingering in the Southwestern US for days. Models are in agreement
that the trough will begin to progress toward the Panhandles
Wednesday, but agreement regarding the speed and the track of the
system has not improved, if not decreased. The deterministic GFS and
Canadian are now the slower models while the NAM and ECMWF are
quicker. It seems as though the quicker solutions would put the
700mb vorticity maxima more in the vicinity of the Panhandles in the
afternoon hours while the slower solutions put it more into New
Mexico. In either case, dew points in the upper 30s to lower 40s are
favored in the eastern combined Panhandles, and combined with very
cold temperatures aloft (-20C to -22C at 500mb), MLCAPE values
between 250-750 J/kg are possible. Meanwhile in the western combined
Panhandles, generally lower dew points may only yield up to 250 J/kg
MLCAPE. Winds aloft won`t be particularly impressive for much of the
CWA, though the eastern combined Panhandles may see effective shear
values around 20-25 kts which would support some thunderstorm
organization, while the western combined Panhandles are favored to
see weaker shear which would support pulse showers or an isolated
pulse thunderstorm.

These conditions lead to slightly differing severe weather threat.
Across the Panhandles there will be a well established inverted-V
signature of varying heights (taller signature in the west, slightly
shallower in the east) which suggests the potential for strong to
severe wind gusts with any shower or thunderstorm that can develop.
Given the weak instability and weak winds aloft in the west, any
shower that would develop would be brief but could produce a dry
microburst. With the slightly greater instability and winds aloft in
the east, thunderstorms with some level of organization are more
possible, and strong to severe wind gusts would remain the primary
severe weather threat. However, wouldn`t be able to rule out a 1"
hailstone with a stronger updraft. Moderate to heavy rain may also
occur with any thunderstorm that can develop in the eastern combined
Panhandles due to a more favorable moisture profile.

Shower and thunderstorm activity generally quiets down Wednesday
evening, though some rain may linger through the night in the
eastern combined Panhandles. Surface winds gradually turn from
easterly to northerly as the surface low moves away but most areas
remain warmer than the previous night.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

A few showers along with a thunderstorm or two may linger across the
eastern Panhandles Thursday as the upper level low moves east across
the southern Texas Panhandle.  A few more showers will be possible
on Saturday as a weak upper air disturbance moves across the
Panhandles in a zonal flow.  This disturbance will work on any
moisture that pools behind a cold front that moves through the
region on Friday.  Upslope flow on Saturday will also help to keep
the low level moisture in across the area.  A large upper level
trough will move into the Great Basin on Sunday. An increasing
southwest flow aloft will be found across the Panhandles.  At first,
it looks like this southwest flow will be dry for us as
thunderstorms may form in our far eastern areas or into western
Oklahoma.  If this happens, then we will likely see elevated or
perhaps critical fire weather conditions on Sunday. Time will tell,
but it would not be surprising to see the chances of thunderstorms
back up to the west some as we get closer. A strong cold front will
move through the Panhandles late Sunday night into Monday as the
upper level trough moves closer to our area.  More showers may form
behind the cold front on Monday given the increasing upper level
dynamics from our approaching trough. Some models suggest that it
may be cold enough for some snow in the north on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through this period. Southwesterly
winds at 10-15 kts are expected through the day before weakening
to below 10 kts this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                69  41  70  42 /   0   0  60  40
Beaver OK                  75  36  73  39 /   0   0  40  40
Boise City OK              68  35  68  36 /   0   0  30  20
Borger TX                  74  43  75  44 /   0   0  60  40
Boys Ranch TX              71  38  72  40 /   0   0  50  30
Canyon TX                  69  39  72  40 /   0   0  50  40
Clarendon TX               71  44  73  44 /   0   0  60  60
Dalhart TX                 68  33  69  36 /   0   0  30  20
Guymon OK                  72  35  71  37 /   0   0  40  30
Hereford TX                69  38  72  39 /   0   0  50  30
Lipscomb TX                74  40  74  42 /   0   0  50  50
Pampa TX                   71  43  73  43 /   0   0  60  50
Shamrock TX                72  42  77  44 /   0   0  50  70
Wellington TX              71  42  74  46 /   0   0  50  70

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...52


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