Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 170822
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
322 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Cooler than average temperatures are forecast for the rest of this
weekend. Rain showers will gradually diminish this afternoon but
the cooler temperatures will remain across the area. Another day
of highs in the 50s and potentially 60s is forecast for tomorrow
but with less chances for rain showers.

Latest radar imagery shows scattered to numerous rain showers
across much of the area with the southwest being the exception as
the showers have ended for this area. Rain shower activity has
been more widespread and heavier than previously forecast for
today, which is a pleasant surprise. Rain showers should gradually
end from southwest to northeast over the next few hours. Cloud
cover will remain across the area today which should keep highs to
mainly the mid 50s to upper 40s.

The H500 low that has been well talked about over the last few
days will remain over the Desert Southwest, in particular Arizona,
on Sunday. This is when the center of low pressure is forecast to
be closest to the CWA before beginning to trek back to the west
late on Sunday. With the low moving closer to the Southern High
Plains, lift for precipitation should remain over portions of the
High Plains on Sunday. Unfortunately for the Panhandles, H700
theta-e is not impressive for Sunday as shown by the latest model
guidance. The lack of better mid level moisture combined with
drying low levels behind a weak front tonight should keep most of
the area dry tomorrow. The far west and southwest zones have the
better chances at seeing very light rain showers, but the
potential is much lower than it has been the past two days. Some
locations may struggle to break out of the mid level clouds
tomorrow, mainly for the southwest, which would keep this area
cooler than other areas. Highs tomorrow will remain below average
in the lower 50s to lower 60s. For Sunday night, skies should
clear out and winds are forecast to decrease which should lead to
good radiational cooling and low temperatures dropping down to
near or below freezing for most of the Panhandles.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Most models agree that the upper level low will get the boot out of
Arizona sometime Tuesday night. The models do not agree on how
fast the low moves east across New Mexico and the Panhandles the
following days. At any rate, it should bring enough moisture,
lift, and instability to provide the Panhandles another chance of
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night with a few
wrap- around showers possible on Thursday. Will leave the rest of
the forecast dry for now. However, there are some models that
want to bring another chance of rain on Friday sometime in
association with a fast moving weak upper level disturbance moving
through the zonal or northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

MVFR conditions continue at AMA, but ceilings are expected to lift
in the next hour or two. By 08Z, all sites will be VFR and remain
that way for the rest of the 06Z TAF period. Light showers may
intermittently be present at DHT, but no impacts on ceilings are
anticipated. The cloud layer closest to the surface should stay
scattered in terms of coverage.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  31  62  37 /  10  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  62  26  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              56  28  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  63  34  65  39 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              62  31  65  35 /  20  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  59  31  63  35 /  20  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               58  32  61  38 /  10  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 57  27  61  32 /  10  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  60  27  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                58  31  62  35 /  40  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                62  29  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   60  31  62  39 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                62  32  63  37 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              60  32  62  37 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...55


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