Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 151723
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1223 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Rain showers have finally made as far north as the southern Texas
Panhandle and the western portions of the CWA. CAMs continued to
hint at the heavier precip being across the southwest, in reality,
radar trends have moved this heavier band to the south central and
southeast, where PoPs were lowest. Have increased PoPs through
this afternoon given current trends. Cannot rule out a few
lightning strikes as well given a few hundred joules of elevated
CAPE as depicted by model soundings. Rain amounts should
generally remain below a quarter inch. Highs today for the central
and west will struggle to reach the 50 degree mark given all of
the cloud cover lingering through the rest of today.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

In the upper levels, there was a cutoff low moving southwest near
SAN, a high was just off of the Washington coast and there was a
broad ridge over the eastern third of the U.S.  A weak vort max was
moving northeast from Mexico into southwest Texas.  A southwest flow
remained over the Panhandles on the eastern side of the broad trough
that held the Southern California low.

The weak vort max moving into southwest Texas is expected to help
develop showers and thunderstorms in that area just before sunrise.
This area of rain is then expected to slowly lift north northeast
across the Panhandles late this morning into the afternoon. However,
the rain is expected to weaken and decrease in coverage as it moves
over the Panhandles.  So again, the best chance of rain will remain
mainly over the southwest half of the Texas Panhandle.

Another upper level disturbance is expected to bring another shot of
rain on Saturday, with the southwest favored again.  Rainfall totals
ending Saturday night are expected to be generally under 0.25", but
there could be some places in the southwest Texas Panhandle that
receive near 0.33".

Highs both today and Saturday are expected to be in the 50`s with a
few 40`s near the New Mexico state line and a few 60`s near the
Oklahoma state line.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

A closed upper low is expected to be positioned over parts of New
Mexico, east of the four corners region, by the start of the
extended period 7am Sunday. This low pressure system is forecast
to move back and forth above the southwestern CONUS, due to
thermodynamic influences from another large, strong trough in the
eastern half of the states, and a high pressure system in the
northwest CONUS. By Wednesday and Thursday, the eastern trough
will push out into the Atlantic, and the high pressure center in
the west will weaken. This should allow the upper low to finally
traverse across our CWA; however, it`s strength and position is
still a topic of uncertainty amongst long range guidance. Behind
this upper low, zonal flow should take over the area by next
weekend.

Precipitation looks to continue into Sunday, but higher chances
will favor the western half of the combined Panhandles. If our
low pressure system can move further to the east before it gets
repositioned, PoPs could extend further east as well.
Unfortunately, many model ensemble members of the NBM and LREF do
not depict this outcome. Additionally, deterministic models like
the GFS and ECMWF have the low positioned even further west than
the ensembles. So, a reduction of PoPs is not out of the question
either. By virtue of this precariousness, we have opted to leave
in the NBM`s suggested PoPs for now. PoPs have a chance to return
later this week by Wednesday, mostly in the form of showers with
some thunderstorm chances in the east. High temperatures should be
mild in the 60`s and 70`s, and fire weather conditions are
forecast to be suppressed as a result of increased moisture
availability and light to breezy wind speeds throughout the week.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Low clouds will lead to MVFR ceilings for KDHT and KAMA through
much of this TAF period. There may be a brief period during the
overnight hours that both sites return to VFR, but that will be
short lived as low clouds move back in. KGUY may remain VFR the
entire time, but will need to keep an eye on this site. Light rain
showers will move across portions of the area over the next few
hours and once again will be possible late in this TAF period.
Breezy northeast winds will continue for a few hours before
becoming light and variable after sunset through the rest of this
TAF cycle.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                36  54  38  56 /  10  50  10  40
Beaver OK                  33  62  40  61 /  10  20  10  10
Boise City OK              30  54  35  52 /  10  30  20  40
Borger TX                  38  59  41  60 /  10  40  10  30
Boys Ranch TX              36  54  38  56 /  20  40  20  50
Canyon TX                  36  53  37  56 /  20  50  20  50
Clarendon TX               38  54  41  59 /  10  50  10  30
Dalhart TX                 30  53  34  51 /  20  30  20  40
Guymon OK                  31  59  38  58 /  10  20  10  20
Hereford TX                36  53  37  56 /  20  50  20  50
Lipscomb TX                36  60  41  60 /  10  20  10  10
Pampa TX                   37  57  39  59 /  10  40  10  30
Shamrock TX                38  58  42  61 /  10  40  10  20
Wellington TX              40  57  42  62 /  10  50  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...05


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