Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 130557
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1257 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
A quick moving mid level wave continues to traverse eastward
through southern Kansas this afternoon, with an associated weak
sfc pressure trough sliding southeastward through the forecast
area this afternoon causing generally light winds to shift from
west-southwesterly to more northwesterly through the afternoon.
Otherwise warm and dry conditions prevail through the afternoon
and evening hours as high temperatures soar well into the 70s
this afternoon, with some locations nearing 80 degrees across the
south.
Fire weather concerns ramp up again on Wednesday ahead of another
upper level storm system approaching from the west. Deep
southwesterly flow aloft will develop throughout the day Wednesday
as a strong longwave trough digs into the Desert Southwest. At the
same time, a strong upper level jet streak emanating from the base
of the trough will eject out over the High Plains during the day.
This will aid in the formation of a strengthening Lee cyclone and
a resulting tightening of the surface pressure gradient by early
Wednesday afternoon. Therefore, increasing southwesterly winds are
expected through the morning hours, with sustained winds of 20-30
mph and gusts of 40 mph likely across much of the Panhandle. Some
of the more aggressive guidance indicates that some gusts of
40-50mph will also be possible (20-40%) during the afternoon
across the Southern Panhandle. This combined with daytime highs
again rising into the 70s to near 80 degrees areawide under
mostly sunny skies along with min RH values dropping into the
10-15% range, fire weather concerns will be increased during the
day tomorrow. As such, a Red Flag Warning has been issued across
the CWA, so please be cautious and exercise all fire
safety/prevention measures.
A cold front will begin to approach the region by late Wednesday
afternoon, which will ease the winds somewhat across the far
northern portions of the forecast area by Wednesday evening. The
front will progress southeastward across the CWA through the
evening and overnight hours, bringing cooler temperatures, lighter
winds, and slightly better moisture to aid in fire weather
recovery overnight Wednesday. A couple light showers could also
accompany the frontal passage, mainly across the far northwest
corner of the CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
The aforementioned upper low will cutoff over the Desert Southwest
for much of the rest of the period, with southwesterly flow aloft
dominating the region for the next week. THe positioning will be
as such that most of the Gulf moisture will remain to the east of
the forecast area and any moisture associated with the upper
trough will generally remain west of the local region, meaning the
forecast will be fairly dry through the period. Several weak
disturbances moving through the larger scale trough could bring
some off and on showers from Thursday through the first part of
next week. Any amounts will generally be light as moisture remains
rather limited. With cooler air in place, some light snow showers
cannot be ruled out during the overnight/early morning hours,
especially across northern portions of the forecast area. But,
with limited moisture, any accumulations will be light... no more
than a tenth of an inch or two, with melting occurring during the
daylight hours. Modestly strong flow aloft through the period
will likely lead to gusty winds mixing to the surface during the
day and weakening during the nighttime hours. Temperatures should
hold pretty steady from Thursday through early next week, with
highs in the 50s to near 60 and lows mostly in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Breezy winds and potential for blowing dust will be the main
highlights for the 06z TAFs, but generally VFR conditions are
expected. Winds will increase out of the west southwest this
afternoon, sustained 15-25 kts, with gusts up to 30-35 kts
possible at KAMA and KDHT. A rogue gust or two over 40 kts can`t
entirely be ruled out at KAMA, but is not likely enough to
include in the TAFs at this time. Minor reductions to visibility
from blowing dust may also occur at times this afternoon, but would
produce minimal impacts. Otherwise expect intermittent mid to
high clouds overhead throughout the period, and winds subsiding
behind a cold front tomorrow evening.
Harrel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Breezy winds look to return Panhandles wide Wed afternoon, with
elevated to solidly critical fire weather conditions expected for
much of the area. Winds aloft are progged to gradually increase
and help sustain southwest winds at 20-30 mph, with gusts reaching
upwards of 40 to 45 mph. Daytime highs will be comparable to
Tuesday in the 70s to low 80s, with relative humidity values
dropping as low as 10-15%. RFTI values are expected to max out
around 4 to 5 in the south, with some isolated 6s, and 1 to 3 in
the north during the afternoon. Despite strongest winds staying
south, the OK Panhandle should still see at least some elevated
to near critical fire weather conditions. A cold front will move
into the area by Wednesday evening, bringing lighter winds,
slightly better moisture, and cooler temperatures to aid in fire
weather recovery during the overnight hours into Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 74 40 65 36 / 0 0 0 10
Beaver OK 77 39 64 34 / 0 10 0 0
Boise City OK 68 35 52 30 / 20 20 30 20
Borger TX 78 42 68 37 / 0 10 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 74 38 65 34 / 0 10 0 10
Canyon TX 74 40 67 34 / 0 0 0 10
Clarendon TX 77 44 70 38 / 0 0 0 10
Dalhart TX 70 33 58 30 / 10 10 10 20
Guymon OK 74 36 60 33 / 10 10 10 10
Hereford TX 73 38 67 34 / 0 0 0 10
Lipscomb TX 79 41 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
Pampa TX 77 42 67 36 / 0 10 0 0
Shamrock TX 80 44 72 38 / 0 0 0 10
Wellington TX 80 45 74 41 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ001>020-317.
OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
OKZ001>003.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...38