Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 171722
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1222 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The H500 cutoff low in the southwestern CONUS should remain
stationary for the short term period. A surface trough sweeps
through our CWA this morning, while the upper level flow stays
west-southwesterly. By Monday, a surface high will move across
the area as the H500 low pressure system prepares to transition
east.

Some isolated shower are ongoing for a few areas in the northern
Texas Panhandle, but accumulation has been light so far tonight
and looks to linger as such. Later on this morning, the better
moisture exits our region to the south, and chances for
precipitation dwindle as the day goes on. Mentionable PoPs are now
restricted to the far southwestern Texas Panhandle for the
morning and early afternoon hours. QPF will also be light today
for areas that receive precipitation, generally being less than
one tenth of an inch. Winds will continue to be light today and
Monday, and clouds will slowly clear out starting from the
northeast. By tonight into tomorrow morning, sky coverage will be
mostly clear. Temperatures will also slowly rise for the next few
days. Highs will start to approach the mid 60`s, but Monday
morning lows could be in the lower 30`s as a result of radiational
cooling. Clear skies and light northerly winds are forecast to
support this process.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Most models agree that the upper level low will get the boot out of
Arizona sometime Tuesday night. The models do not agree on how
fast the low moves east across New Mexico and the Panhandles the
following days. At any rate, it should bring enough moisture,
lift, and instability to provide the Panhandles another chance of
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night with a few
wrap- around showers possible on Thursday. Will leave the rest of
the forecast dry for now. However, there are some models that
want to bring another chance of rain on Friday sometime in
association with a fast moving weak upper level disturbance moving
through the zonal or northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR conditions are likely over the next 24 hours. Light winds
around 10 kts or less are expected along with scattered mid level
clouds.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                31  62  37  69 /  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  26  62  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              28  60  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  34  65  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              31  65  35  70 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  31  63  35  68 /  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               32  61  38  69 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 27  61  32  68 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  27  62  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                31  62  35  67 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                29  63  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   31  62  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                32  63  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              32  62  37  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...05


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