456
FXUS64 KAMA 041124
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
624 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to develop behind the
cold front early this morning. Scattered showers and storms will
continue to be possible for a few more hours for the southern row
of counties in the TX Panhandle up through Wheeler county. Cloud
cover looks to remain in place behind the front today. NBM
guidance typically does not do to well with these cooler
air masses, so have blended in some cooler guidance for highs for
this afternoon.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A cold front has passed through the panhandles very early this
morning. This front is causing some light showers and
thunderstorms that will dissipate before the mid morning hours.
The winds have shifted to the N post cold front and are currently
gusting in the 20s to 30s mph. These winds will remain gusty
through the rest of the morning with a slight weakening trend.
The passage of the front will shunt moisture to the S leaving the
panhandles with just cloudy skies. It wont be till the arrival of
a short wave that the moisture will come surging back into the
southern panhandles. This when coupled with the instability of the
short wave will spark off another round of showers and
thunderstorms. The overall dynamics of this system will allow for
stronger storms to develop but this would be over more central TX
and not in the panhandles. This doesn`t mean no strong storms
wont happen in the panhandle just that it is a very low chance.
While the chance of rain may be high the intensity of the rain has
a higher chance of being light as the moisture return wont be
long or strong enough for high rainfall amounts. The moisture will
have a high chance of sticking across the panhandles through the
evening hours but as said before this should only lead to lighter
showers and thunderstorms. It wont be until Sunday morning that
most of the moisture get shunted out of the panhandles that the
showers activity will become very light and isolated. Sunday will
also see a stronger low pressure system develop across the desert
SW which will begin to impact the southern plains. This would
mainly be reflected with an increase in the winds for Sunday and a
shift to a southerly direction. These southerly winds will also
allow for Sunday to be warmer than Saturday with highs in the 70s.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Some breezy to possibly windy conditions may exist Monday
afternoon (wind gusts potentially up to 50 mph) with a possible
dryline set up across the far eastern combined Panhandles.
Depending on the position of the dryline and upper level support
from a potentially negatively tilted trough at H5 some
thunderstorms will be possible for only the far eastern combined
Panhandles. Have stayed with NBM PoPs for now, around 20 to 30
percent, which may still be too high. This dryline is looking like
it may still be well into western OK with no thunderstorms in the
Panhandles. West of the dryline breezy and dry conditions are
expected and depending on the state of fuels fire weather
conditions may exist.

The rest of the week looks primarily benign with maybe a couple
of weak cold fronts bringing northerly winds and daytime
temperatures back down into the 70s for Thu, and upper 60s to
lower 70s for Fri. Fri a shortwave trough is progged to approach
the far northwestern combined Panhandles with maybe a slight
chance PoPs for the far western OK Panhandle. Beyond day 7, on Sat
is when this trough may actually bring PoPs to the other parts of
the FA. This will be the next potential weather maker after Mon.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

MVFR to IFR ceilings are forecast through approximately 18z for
all sites. VFR conditions should return afterwards til later in
the TAF period when precipitation chances return (mainly for KAMA)
and low clouds move back in. Have included a PROB30 group for
thunderstorm chances at KAMA. When the low clouds move back in,
MVFR to IFR conditions are expected. Winds will begin out of the
north but will eventually become easterly with gusts of 20 to 25
kts. Winds will gradually decrease over the next 24 hours down to
around 10 kts.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                68  51  74  57 /  20  50  20  10
Beaver OK                  66  47  74  56 /  10  30  30  10
Boise City OK              64  44  75  55 /  10  20  10   0
Borger TX                  70  52  78  59 /  10  40  30  10
Boys Ranch TX              69  51  79  59 /  10  40  20  10
Canyon TX                  68  51  74  57 /  20  40  20  10
Clarendon TX               67  52  70  58 /  40  60  20  20
Dalhart TX                 66  46  75  54 /  10  30  20   0
Guymon OK                  66  46  75  55 /  10  20  20  10
Hereford TX                69  52  77  58 /  20  40  10  10
Lipscomb TX                67  50  74  57 /  10  50  30  10
Pampa TX                   67  51  73  58 /  20  50  30  10
Shamrock TX                68  52  71  57 /  70  60  30  20
Wellington TX              69  54  72  58 /  60  60  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...05