502
FNUS71 KBGM 120901
FWSBGM

Spot Forecast for 300 Forest Unit 6...PA Game Commission
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
501 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A frontal system brings an isolated shower to Northeast PA Monday
afternoon, with a warming trend. Overall, most of Monday should
be dry and partly sunny. Southwest winds will be breezy across
the ridgetop, between 9-17 mph, with gusts around 20 mph. Dry
weather continues Monday night, with good RH recovery but still
breezy southwest winds along the ridgetop.

Additional periods of rain are expected Tuesday and Wednesday
from yet another slow moving upper level low. The weather pattern
finally shows signs of drying out for the end of the work week.
Temperatures remain steady, near average levels all week.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny, with a slight chance of
                    a rain shower late in the afternoon.
CWR.................2 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind(20 ft)........ Southwest winds 10-18 mph.
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 9 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
SUNSET..............818 PM
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................17 to 47.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........69  60  58  57  58  57  57  57  57  57
Weather cov.....                            SCH
Weather type....                            RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............48  50  52  55  58  60  63  64  66  67
RH..............86  86  83  74  69  64  60  59  57  58
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd.. 9  10  11  13  14  15  17  17  17  17
20 FT wind gust.14  14  15  16  17  18  20  20  21  21
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.13  13  14  15  16  18  20  20  20  20
LVORI...........4   4   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............17  21  27  32  37  41  44  46  47  44
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-60 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........south winds 14 to 20 mph.
 Slope/valley.......South winds 12 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
SUNRISE.............544 AM
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................16 to 36.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........52  47  36  41  46  50  45  40  34  42  50  57
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  60  59  58  58  57  56  56  55  55  54  54
RH..............65  69  72  75  72  75  77  74  77  77  80  80
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..17  17  18  19  20  20  20  20  20  20  19  18
20 FT wind gust.21  21  21  22  22  23  23  22  22  22  22  22
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.18  18  19  20  21  21  21  20  20  20  21  21
LVORI...........1   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............36  26  18  16  17  19  18  18  18  17  17  19
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning. Rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 80 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 63-66.
Min humidity........66-70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 18 to 22 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
SUNSET..............819 PM
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................21 early in the morning increasing to 78 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........64        75        76        82
Weather cov.....          CHANCE    CHANCE    DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                              S CHC
CWR.............0         0         0         80
LAL.............1         1         1         2
Temp............55        58        61        63
RH..............80        77        75        72
20 FT wind......S 21G22   S 20G21   S 20G21   S 21G22
Mix hgt (ft)....700       1600      3100      4000
Transport wind..SW 21     SW 18     SW 18     SW 21
LVORI...........3         2         0         0
ADI.............21        34        61        76
Haines index....5         5         4         3

$$
Forecaster...Murphy
Requested by...Brian Williamson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413700.0/BGM
.DELDT 05/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL brianwilli@pa.gov