Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 281951
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
251 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread precipitation still expected tonight through
  Friday. Mainly snow is expected along the Highway 2 corridor
  and north. A wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and brief
  sleet is possible south of Highway 2 to the ND/SD border.

- Snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches, with locally higher
  amounts near 5 inches, are possible across northern North
  Dakota. Light ice accumulations (generally less than a tenth
  of an inch) are possible in areas that see freezing rain.

- Another disturbance will bring a chance (20 to 40 percent) of
  light snow to southern North Dakota at times this weekend
  into early next week. Light snow accumulations are possible.

- Next week will see the start of another warming and mainly dry trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A clipper system currently in the Northern Rockies will increase
clouds and southeasterly winds through the evening. Late this
evening, this clipper will enter into the area starting chances
for rain and freezing rain initially across the southwest,
spreading across much of the CWA through the night. A wintry mix
of snow and freezing rain will be possible south of Highway 2
through tonight, while areas along and north of Highway 2 are
expected to remain mainly snow. The highest confidence areas
right now for freezing rain look to be near and south of
Interstate 94. This clipper continues to push eastward Friday
morning, lingering snow in the north and a wintry mix that
attempts to change over to all snow elsewhere. Some higher res
models showing some frontal genesis in the north could provide
for some higher snowfall rates Friday morning. This combined
with the lack of freezing rain expected in these areas have
increased snow totals across the north. Meanwhile, this slightly
northern shift in QPF have lowered ice accumulations, although
the confidence in freezing rain in some of these southern areas
has increased given forecast soundings. Snow accumulations by
the time precipitation is done now look to be 1 to 4 inches
north, with some areas getting near 5 inches. Ice accumulations
look to remain less than a tenth of an inch overall. So overall
the confidence in a winter highlight is not quite there, and
will maintain the SPS for the time being. As precipitation ends
Friday afternoon and evening there could be some pockets of
freezing drizzle or mist. Confidence was not high enough to
include this in the forecast at this time, although is worth
monitoring as abundant low level moisture will linger while the
mid levels dry out. Low temperatures tonight under cloud cover
will be in the 20s, while highs tomorrow look to generally be in
the 30s. Friday night could see some lingering clouds with lows
in the teens.

This weekend, there still looks to be a surface low lee of the
Rockies try to set up somewhere in the Colorado area. Meanwhile
a surface high pushes southward out of Canada. Where these two
meet will likely set up snow or perhaps rain along a frontal
boundary until a larger trough can kick the surface low out into
the plains. Models still tend to favor the higher amounts of QPF
with the feature to be south of North Dakota, and more so in
South Dakota or perhaps even further south. That being said, NBM
still putting in 20 to 40% pops in southern ND for different
periods each day Saturday through Monday. This would likely be
all snow if any precipitation does fall. Currently this is about
a 10 to 30% of at least 2 inches of snow along and south of
Interstate 94 at any 48 hour time period this weekend into next
week. So although confidence is increase to only minor impacts
from this system, it will still be worth watching for any shifts
in track. Highs will generally be in the 30s this weekend, with
lows in the 20s. Monday may be slightly warmer yet similar.

Clusters continue to show a broad ridge setting up next week
bringing warmer temperatures and mainly dry conditions. NBM
spreads are starting to come together, with a difference more
coming mid next week when some clusters try to flatten the
ridge. Overall this pattern could return temperatures to more
normal like readings, and perhaps slightly above.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions today will give way to MVFR to IFR conditions
tonight into Friday morning as an upper level disturbance brings
mixed wintry precipitation. For the rest of today, mid to high
clouds will move into the region from west to east. VFR
conditions are expected, with light winds becoming southeast and
perhaps breezy at times. Tonight through Friday morning, an
upper level disturbance will bring chances for snow and freezing
rain from west to east. Areas along and south of Interstate 94
including KDIK to KBIS to KJMS will have the better chances for
freezing rain perhaps ending as snow. Meanwhile, north of this
line will see mainly snow, including KXWA to KMOT. Either
scenario produces MVFR to IFR conditions. Southeast winds may
also be breezy through the night, becoming northwest later in
the morning Friday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin


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