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000
FXUS65 KBOU 160621
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1221 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions over the plains through early
  evening.

- Heavy mountain snow expected tonight and Tuesday morning.

- Strong winds to 65 mph over the eastern plains Tuesday.

- Cooler, breezy and unsettled through Saturday with precipitation
  off and on. The best chances will be Wednesday night into
  Thursday morning and again Friday afternoon into Saturday.

- Drier and somewhat warmer for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Water vapor shows the upper level trough is over central Colorado
this evening. There is QG ascent on the north side of this trough
which is aiding in the development of snow in the mountains.
Water vapor does show some drier air moving into the mountains
currently which has led to a decrease in snow intensity. The
westerly to northwesterly flow at the surface in North and Middle
Parks along with favorable forcing aloft has led to snowfall
developing in those areas as well. There will likely be some
travel impacts due to this snow so Winter Weather Advisories were
issued for both areas. In the eastern portions of those zones that
have higher elevation, snow amounts could reach as high as 10"
but most areas will see between 4-8".

A cold front/outflow boundary moved through the urban corridor
and across the eastern plains this evening. This has generated a
few showers and one heavier shower over the northeast Denver metro
but they were very short-lived. There may be a couple more
showers throughout the evening but mid level dry air will keep
them isolated and weak. Later in the overnight hours, a
deformation zone will rotate into our forecast area with a large
band of precipitation. PoPs, and QPF were increased late tonight
and into tomorrow morning to account for this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery showing an upper level low moving
into western Colorado. Deep mixing under the strong southerly flow
ahead of the low is bringing southwest winds to 50 mph across the
eastern plains. Surface low pressure over northeast Colorado will
continue to deep as it slowly tracks northeast. A cold front will
cause winds to shift to the west this evening. Winds are expected
to remain gusty with gusts to 50 mph. Areas in and near the
foothills could see gusts to 60 mph. These downslope winds should
limit precipitation chances this evening. Expect winds to shift
northwest to north overnight. The best chance for showers will
come during this period when the downslope component will be
weakest. Expect an area of showers to form on the backside of the
low late tonight and Tuesday morning over the plains.

For the mountains, snow becomes widespread this evening and
continues overnight and into Tuesday morning. Drier moves into
the area late Tuesday morning and is expected to bring the rain
and snow to an end by early Tuesday afternoon.

Tightening pressure gradient and deep mixing may bring high winds
to the eastern plains Tuesday with gusts to 65 mph possible. Main
window for the strong winds will be late morning and afternoon.
As the airmass stabilizes, winds will decrease early Tuesday
evening. Upgrade the High Wind Watch to a Warning.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Monday/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Brief weak upper ridging with weak northwesterly flow aloft can
be expected Tuesday night with no precipitation. A slowing moving
upper level trough/closed low over the northern U.S, and southern
Canada will push slowly eastward the entire week. Colorado will
be at at the bottom of the broad trough Wednesday into Friday,
with a zonal jet maximum to our immediate north and 70-100 knot
westerly flow aloft over our CWA. A decent cold front is expected
to move into the area late Wednesday afternoon/early evening.
There is upslope progged behind the front through Thursday on into
Friday morning. There is decent enough moisture progged to keep
pops going into Friday morning with the best coverage of 40%-80%s
Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. There is minor CAPE
progged, mainly over the mountains late day Wednesday and again
late day Thursday. Will leave the "slight chance" of thunder in
then.  It looks like there shouldn`t be much snow over the plains
and only modest amounts in the mountains. Precipitation amounts
go not look significant, but, hopefully, most areas will get
something.

Looking at temperatures, the warm day will be Wednesday, with highs
over the plains around 70 F. Thursday`s highs cool off about 20
degrees F.

For the later days, Friday through Monday, models show a weak upper
trough for later Friday into Saturday morning to bring increased
moisture and a better chance of precipitation for the forecast area.
There is flat upper ridging to move in late Saturday into Sunday. By
Sunday night and Monday, model solutions diverge somewhat, however
all of them point to a drier Sunday and Monday with a minor
temperature increase.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1215 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A band of showers is expected to move through Denver between 10z
and 15z, producing ceilings between 2000 and 5000 ft and localized
MVFR visibilities. Northwest winds will also increase during that
time, with gusts up to 40 knots. After the showers end, expect VFR
conditions but the northwest winds will continue through 22z-24z.
By 03z, winds will become typical S/W drainage, but with speeds of
10-20 knots for a few more hours before decreasing to under 12
knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Windy and very dry conditions will continue through early evening
over eastern Colorado. Relative humidities have fallen into the
single digits over the plains with wind gusts 40 to 50 mph. A cold
front will bring a wind shift early this evening. Winds will
remain gusty behind the front with gusts to 40 mph. Relative
humidities will improve behind the front with a chance for rain
showers, mainly late tonight and Tuesday morning.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ030-032.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ031.

Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for COZ033-
034.

High Wind Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this
evening for COZ038-042-044-046>051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Danielson
SHORT TERM.....Meier
LONG TERM......RJK
AVIATION...Gimmestad
FIRE WEATHER...Meier