131
FXUS61 KBTV 160217
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1017 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary boundary overhead will remain in place through
Thursday, resulting in some scattered showers and generally
unsettled weather.  The forecast trends drier for southern and
eastern Vermont to close out the week, though better chances for
showers continue further north and west through Saturday.  Areawide
conditions turn drier Sunday onward, with a pleasant end of the
weekend and start to the week expected with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1014 PM EDT Wednesday...Embedded heavier elements have
been holding on a bit better than anticipated across the
northern tier, and so a couple Flood Warnings are in effect
where about 2 inches of rain has fallen near Chasm Falls and
near East Haven. There should continue to be a drop in rainfall
rates, although hourly guidance coming in is starting to
indicate somewhat greater coverage holding on overnight. Given
the current state of affairs, raised PoPs somewhat. Fog is
starting to develop, with several dewpoint depressions of just 1
or 2, it`s not surprising. Previous forecast below...

Main forecast challenge tonight will be fog and low stratus,
with only light flow and ample low-level moisture lingering
around. Expect areas of mist and stratus, especially in areas of
higher terrain. Best chances for dense fog will be in the
climatologically favoured valley locations of eastern Vermont.

Little change in the overall setup for Thursday with weak stationary
boundary remaining in place.  However for Thursday upper-levels will
be less favorable for lift as a narrow ridge noses in from the
southwest.  Thus, still looking at a few showers over our northern
counties along the boundary, but less coverage and lighter
intensities than what we saw today. Thunderstorm potential for
Thursday looks quite low.  Can`t completely rule out an isolated
storm, but forecast soundings showing shallow instability under the
ridge which will limit thunder potential. Highs for Thursday
will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Showers will come to an end
Thursday night and overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Atmospheric moisture will be on the increase throughout the day
Friday ahead of a mid/upper level trough and associated shortwave
with south-southeasterly surface flow Friday and Friday night.
However, rain showers are likely to hold off until Friday night, and
925mb temps are modeled in the 11-19 C range above 0. This will
allow temperatures to soar into the 70s for most locations, with the
potential for over achieving highs where breaks of sun occur. Dew
points continue to look reasonable in the 50s for most, so
conditions won`t be too muggy.

Precipitation chances will increase Friday night, particularly for
northern New York zones, though chances look to only be in the 20-
50% range as a cold front lifts north. Mostly cloudy skies will
ensure temperatures remain mild with lows in the 50s for most.
Warmest temperatures will be in the wider valleys, coolest
temperatures east of the Green Mountains. Showery weather could
continue Saturday with precip chances up to 20-40%. There`s also the
potential for a rumble of thunder with model soundings showing tall,
thin CAPE, especially across St. Lawrence County. Saturday will also
be cooler with this precipitation expected, but still seasonable in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We continue to trend towards drier weather this weekend under mainly
zonal flow with some weak upper level ridging from time to time. We
maintain slight chance precipitation, however, Saturday night into
Tuesday in spots. With these dry conditions, temperatures will begin
to warm again into the 70s for most through midweek. Precipitation
chances return midweek for another trough system moving through.
Models are not in good agreement on timing at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Showers with embedded moderate to heavy
rain is ongoing, but starting to weaken. Activity should less
quickly after 04z. Similar conditions to last night should yield
light winds, BKN-OVC at 7000-12000 ft agl, and patchy fog.
Precipitation was more widespread today, and thus there`s
moderate confidence fog will be more widespread than yesterday.
There will be a mid-level trough that pivots overhead, and may
mix out fog from north to south between 09z and 13z and a
surface north wind could develop as surface low pressure tracks
up the US coast. So mainly kept to 2 to 4 SM visibility. After
13z, southeast to east flow will develop over Vermont, except
northwest at KBTV, and then east to northeast over New York.
Winds speeds should generally stay 5 to 9 knots. A few showers
will develop, mainly near the international border about 15z to
23z.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Haynes