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000
FXUS62 KCAE 162328
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
728 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and upper ridging will build over the southeastern
states during the first part of the week resulting in warm and
dry conditions. A cold front will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms late week. The front may stall near the area late
in the weekend with cooler temperatures and scattered showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Earlier isolated thunderstorm activity near a front over our NE
forecast area has shifted into NC, as the front begins its move
northward. Overnight tonight, some passing high clouds are
expected in addition to another 20+ knot low- level jet
developing. Therefore, lows should end up in the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday and Wednesday night: Mid to upper ridging begins to
flatten through the day Wednesday as a trough slides by to our
northwest, which is forecast to lead to plenty of cloud cover
for  the day. A mature surface cyclone is expected to move from
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. An associated frontal
boundary is forecast to move across the Southeast, which could
bring a few light showers overnight Wednesday into early
Thursday morning as an increase in low level moisture is
anticipated. Afternoon highs are expected to be slightly cooler
than Monday and Tuesday, but still remain relatively warm
despite the cloud cover. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach
the low 80s while mild overnight temps in the lower 60s can be
anticipated.

Thursday and Thursday night: As the upper trough to our
northwest  continues to trek northward, mid to upper level
ridging is forecast to move back over the region. This should
allow for temperatures to be anomalously warm across the area in
the afternoon. The latest NBM guidance is indicating a moderate
chance (50%-75%) that a good portion of the forecast area will
break the 90F mark in the afternoon. This does seem reasonable
given the warm temperatures we already have seen this week.
Skies are also forecast to be mainly clear and there should be
some downslope component to the wind. If we do see these
temperatures, a record or two could be broken. The current
record high for Thursday in the Augusta area is 91F set back in
1896. The record for the Columbia area is 96F, so that record
will likely stand.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper ridging overhead begins to translate eastward as a large
scale  moves across the northern CONUS, which promotes
southwest flow over the area. This should allow for increased
PWATs over the region into the weekend. A shortwave is forecast
is to propagate across the area on Friday and aid in sending a
cold front through the region. As a result there is a chance for
showers and a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. A
larger cold front is forecast to move through the region over
the weekend, bringing more chances for rain. However, there
remains plenty of uncertainty with the trajectory of an upstream
trough, which would affect how much rain coverage we could see.
Dry conditions are expected to return to begin next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Cirrus continue to move across the region with an isolated
thunderstorm or two well north of the terminals. Through the
period expect the mid and high clouds to continue crossing the
region with a weak short wave again passing north of the area
tomorrow. With dry air dominating the low levels do not expect
any showers or thunderstorms however near the end of the period
some additional moisture will move into the area with some low
clouds nearing the terminals at the end of the period. Winds
through mid morning will be light and variable then become
southerly at 8 to 10 knots with gusts up to 17 knots during the
afternoon hours.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$