Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 260410
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1210 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure crosses the region overnight into Tuesday. A warm
front crosses the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. Low
pressure will approach Thursday, cross the Gulf of Maine Friday,
then exit across the Maritimes Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1210AM Update...No major changes to the forecast for this
update.

Previous discussion:
High pressure drifts northeast from the Gulf of Saint Lawrence
tonight while still ridging south across the forecast area. At
the same time, an inverted trof will extend north toward Nova
Scotia from low pressure located well to the south. Expect
mostly clear skies north tonight. Across Downeast areas, expect
mostly clear skies early tonight with clouds then increasing
overnight. Moisture expands northward along the inverted trof
Tuesday with increasing clouds across the forecast area.
Precipitation will also slowly expand north across the forecast
area, though uncertainty still exists regarding how rapidly this
occurs. Generally expect precipitation in the form of rain
Tuesday. However, if precipitation arrives early enough a slight
chance/chance of freezing rain could exist Downeast Tuesday
morning. Any ice accumulations are expected to be around a
trace. Drier air with retreating high pressure will slow the
advancement of rain across northern areas during the afternoon.
Low temperatures tonight will range through the single digits to
around 10 north, to the lower 20s interior Downeast with upper
20s along the Downeast coast. High temperatures Tuesday will
range from the upper 30s to around 40 north, with upper 30s
Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Active pattern will be in place during the short term portion of the
fcst. By 00z Wed upr trof will be digging into the nrn Plains with
southwest flow acrs the CWA as upr low drifts twd Bermuda. At the
sfc cold air damming may still be present as strong low-level jet
brings in warmer temps aloft. With warm air flowing over the cold
snowpack expect fog to develop Tuesday night and as sfc temps will
flirting with freezing to the north of Katahdin cannot rule out
patchy fzdz/fzra late Tuesday night. Given the tendency for valleys
in the Central Highlands to take a longer time to scour out the cold
temps, have manually lowered them by a degree or two Tuesday night
with freezing rain possible in these areas. All in all, expect ice
accums from a glaze to as much as 0.10 inches in the valley acrs the
west and the north Tuesday night.

Southerly flow continues on Wednesday with continued warm advection
pops in the form of stratiform rain. Very little forcing exists for
significant qpf during the day Wednesday with light rain, areas of
fog and perhaps some drizzle along the coast. High temps will be in
the 40s over the entire area, cooler right along the coast and the
outer islands.

Expect pattern to remain active Wednesday night and Thursday as more
waves move up along the Eastern Seaboard, affecting mostly Downeast
Wednesday night before spreading back to the west on Thursday. May
need to adjust highest pops back twd the west during the day
Thursday as boundary remains just offshore, possibly retrograding
back twd the coast. Temps look to be warmest acrs the north during
the day away from the low clouds and fog.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday night will see surface low heading northeast from the
Carolina coast and along quasi-stationary boundary over the waters.
Timing of the coastal low differs on speed and location with GFS
indicating a deepening low just to the southwest of Nantucket by 12z
Friday with CMC well south of Montauk and a weaker sfc low from the
EC well south of Nantucket. GFS ensemble mean is quicker than the
operational with EC and CMC ensemble means similar in timing and
track with their operational runs. Due to uncertainty of precip have
followed NBM pops for the end of the week with highest pops over the
southeast and with temps in the 40s looking at all rain.

Coastal low departs to the east on Saturday with cold air wrapping
in behind. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies to be present for
the the weekend in cyclonic flow with maxes right around normal for
the day. May be able to generate snow showers both Saturday and
Sunday afternoon as upr low remains in the vicinity. NW winds will
be gusty over the weekend. Med range guidance in agreement that next
synoptic system will begin approaching the Great Lakes next Monday
and possibly affecting CWA beyond the extndd.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR across the Aroostook terminals tonight through
much of Tuesday, though MVFR conditions could begin to develop
later in the afternoon with a chance of rain at KHUL. Across
Downeast areas, expect VFR conditions tonight. MVFR conditions
then develop during the morning with a chance of rain. Could
also have a chance of freezing rain in the morning if
precipitation develops early enough. MVFR/IFR during the
afternoon with increasing rain chances. East/southeast wind 5
to 10 knots tonight. East/northeast wind 10 to 15 knots
Tuesday.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday night...IFR/LIFR in fog, drizzle and low clouds. Possible
fzra or fzdz over nrn Aroostook terminals late. E 5-10kts.

Wednesday...IFR in low clouds, fog and light rain. SE 5-10kts.

Wednesday night-Thursday...IFR/LIFR in cigs, fog and rain. S 5kts
becoming light and variable on Thursday.

Thursday night...IFR/LIFR in low cigs and rain. N 5-15kts.

Friday...MVFR/tempo IFR in cigs and rain. NW 5-15kts and gusty.

Friday night...MVFR/IFR with a chance of snow and rain showers.
North/northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow and rain showers.
North/northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the
waters tonight through Tuesday. Increasing rain chances Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Small craft continues through the day on Wednesday
with seas slowly dropping off. Seas could remain above 5ft over
the outer waters through Thursday. Winds and seas begin to
increase toward marginal small craft again on Friday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy snow in the past week combined with warm and rainy
conditions this week offers a chance of rivers rising towards
action stage or greater by late this week. Of particular
interest will be the Piscataquis River. Uncertainty remains in
how much rain falls later this week with a slow moving low
pressure system moving up the Eastern Seaboard.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/Norcross
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...LaFlash/Norcross/Buster
Marine...LaFlash/Norcross/Buster
Hydrology...


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