Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 151735
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy on Saturday with elevated fire weather concerns.
- Blustery Sunday, notably cooler Saturday night into Monday.
- Dry forecast through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Light rain has exited the area overnight and skies are clearing
from the northwest. This will result in a mostly sunny and
somewhat milder day, with highs this afternoon rebounding into
the mid to upper 50s despite modest northwest breezes. A cold
front will then approach from the north tonight, crossing our
forecast area Saturday from mid-morning northwest to early
afternoon southeast. A band of clouds will precede and accompany
the front, but forecast soundings indicate too much dry air for
any precipitation. Northwest winds will strengthen and become
gusty behind the boundary and dewpoints will fall as well. Ahead
of the front temperatures should climb to around 60 in our
southern counties, but in the north will likely remain in the
lower 50s through the day with the boundary coming through
earlier. This creates a tricky fire weather forecast for
Saturday, with competing influences. Winds will be a bit
stronger in the north/west, but with lower temperatures and thus
slightly higher RH values. The south may see lower RH with the
temperatures climbing higher, but this may only be for a few
hours until cold air advection filters in later in the day. In
addition, as indicated in yesterdays discussion, recent wetting
rains have dampened near-surface fuels and it remains to be seen
how much they will be able to dry out by this time. For now it
is likely - approximately 70 percent chance or better - that
wind speeds will remain near or below RFW criteria and RH will
remain near or above, so will continue to advertise elevated
rather than critical fire weather concerns for Saturday and
monitor short-term forecast trends as the time approaches.

By Saturday night notably cooler air will be surging into the
state as a second, reinforcing front moves through and pushes
temperatures down into the 20s to lower 30s by sunrise Sunday.
In the subsequent cyclonic flow/cold air advection regime
Sunday is likely to feel quite cold, with gusty northwest winds
again and cloud cover at times. Have continued the trend of
bumping down temperatures, with forecast highs now in the upper
30s north to mid 40s south, then lows Sunday night/Monday
morning in the teens north and west to lower 20s southeast.

In the extended forecast, the first half of next week appears
quiet with gradually moderating temperatures reaching the mid
50s to lower 60s by Wednesday afternoon. Next Thursday and
Friday it appears a mid-level trough may wander eastward across
the southern Plains, perhaps over Arkansas/Missouri, and may
provide some rain chances but right now these appear higher to
our south. Still, this time frame poses the only chance for any
meaningful precipitation in the next week-plus.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

MVFR stratus over far northwest Iowa and into Minnesota is
becoming more cellular early this afternoon and eroding in some
areas. Some of the residual moisture on the leading edge is
leading to shallow cumulus development around 2.5-3 kft. It is
possible local MVFR cigs develop in vicinity of KFOD/KMCW though
bases should also continue to rise today as the boundary layer
mixes, so any BKN cigs may end up VFR. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are forecast through the period. Clouds will likely return
Saturday morning though should remain mostly VFR through 18z.
West to northwest wind may become breezy at times this afternoon
then diminish this evening. Gusty northwest winds will arrive
later tonight and into Saturday as a cold front moves through
the state.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lee
AVIATION...Donavon


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