Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 221731
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1231 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

DELIGHTFUL SPRING DAY IN PROGRESS WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND NOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS WERE GUSTING OCCASIONALLY
TO 20 TO 25 MPH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM MN TO TX.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TARGET FOR THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE ADVANCES INTO THE DVN CWA.

WITH RIDGING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GULF MOISTURE WAS
COMPLETELY CUT-OFF. THE HONORS GO TO THE KDVN SOUNDING AT 22/12Z
FOR HAVING THE LOWEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IN THE LOWER 48...
AT JUST 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH.

MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING INLAND INTO THE WEST COAST. 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 130 METERS
WAS NOTED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST EARLY TODAY. CLEAR SKIES...NORTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN. DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY THROUGH
SUNRISE TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS THE COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA STAYS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO MAINTAIN A NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 20 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...AS LONG AS YOU ARE IN THE
SUNSHINE...THE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S VIA MIXING
TO 850MB OR SO WILL BE VERY PLEASANT. IN THE SHADE...A JACKET COULD
BE NEEDED WITH THE CONSISTENT BREEZE/CHILL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGH SLIDING EAST...WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. I EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED
LOWS IN THE ROCK RIVER AND WAPSI VALLEYS TO DIP TO THE LOWER TO MID
30S...BUT IN GENERAL THIS NIGHT SHOULD FALL TO THE MID 30 EAST TO
LOWER 40S WEST. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPEAR LIKELY TO MOVE IN TO
THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE
INTO THE PLAINS.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY WORK IN DURING THE DAY WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTH HALF WHEN STRONGER FORCING MOVES
INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE INITIAL FORCING MOVES INTO WISCONSIN DURING THE
EVENING. SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AND MAY BE FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE AND STRONGER
FORCING BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA SO NEW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

ON THURSDAY THE MAIN FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING
THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SEEN OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRIDAY ON...
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURES WILL EVOLVE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WHAT THE MODELS
LOOSELY AGREE ON IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW. THE
DISAGREEMENTS ARE TO HOW STRONG...WHERE IT WILL DEVELOP...AND HOW IT
WILL MOVE OVER TIME. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND ADDITIONAL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY HAS DRY OR SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME FRAME MUCH HIGHER
POPS WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. SKC THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO
CIGS AT 10K FT WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF TO
OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCNL GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS. THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE






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