Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 231142 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
642 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS NORTHERN MO THIS AM.
THESE ECHOES ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE ENE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE
ANY OF IT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. HRRR DEPICTS ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
CWA...TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN LARGE INDICATING THAT MORE
SATURATION WOULD NEED TO OCCUR FOR THE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND.
DID NOT BUMP UP POPS AS I MY GUT TELLS ME WE WONT SEE MUCH FROM
THESE SHOWERS. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO GET SPRINKLES FROM THOUGH
DURING THE DAY TODAY. WILL ADVISE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THESE SHOWERS IN CASE IT STARTS REACHING THE GROUND.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
STRONGEST HIGH WAS LOCATED OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS WAS LEADING TO A
LIGHT EASTERLY WIND ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAD TO CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MOISTURE WAS THE
RESULT OF A SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS FLOW
AND RIPPLES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT WILL BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA...MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST. WAA INTO
THE AREA AND INSOLATION WILL HELP TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. A FEW SITES MAY EVEN
BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK. H5 RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY AND EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FLOW WILL THEN
TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH NO
POPS.

TONIGHT...H5 RIDGING SHOULD OCCUPY MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z.
THIS...SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT OVERALL POPS FOR THE NIGHT. SPECTRAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE PRECIP OVER MOST OF THE AREA FROM
6Z TO 12Z SUNDAY AM. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MODEL REFLECTIVITY FROM THE
WRFARW AND WRFNMM SUPPORTS THIS NOTION AS WELL. AS FAR AS I CAN
TELL...THE NAM AND AND WRF MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS MEANS THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A LACK OF INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN. I CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH THIS FLOW. I PUT THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST FOR ANY AREA THAT HAS A CHANCE OR GREATER FOR PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND SOME STORMS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGHER POPS TARGETING MAINLY WESTERN 1/2-2/3 OF CWA
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AM WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT MOIST ADVECTION AND
CONVERGENCE. THEN...CONTINUED CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOIST AXIS (PWATS
1.5-1.75 INCHES) AND POTENTIAL PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
PERHAPS SECONDARY FOCUS OF HIGHER POPS ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... MORE AGREEMENT THAT MEMORIAL DAY HARBORS A MUCH
LOWER POTENTIAL FOR PCPN AS FLOW VEERS WESTERLY USHERING IN SLIGHT DRYING AND
SHIFTING MAIN MOIST AXIS TO OUR EAST... WHILE MAIN FORCING ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING AWAY FROM REGION. THUS MEMORIAL DAY OVERALL SHOULD HAVE MANY DRY
HOURS... BUT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 OR LOWER 80S AND DEWPTS
WELL IN THE 60S. PCPN CHCS LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE
COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AM.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... SOME INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLY ANOTHER DRIER PERIOD DEVELOPING
BY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK FRONT AND INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT IN WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. PATTERN THOUGH LOOKS TO RELOAD AND TURN ACTIVE
YET AGAIN LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND JUST BEYOND WITH GULF MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD
OF ANOTHER PLAINS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT CLOUD DECK
TO START LOWERING BUT STAY AOA 5KFT. RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OF POPS
OUT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CID IS THE ONLY SITE THAT COULD HAVE
-RA BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS


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