Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 290806
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
306 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AT 2 AM CDT...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LAST
VESTIGES OF RAIN WILL DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ENERGY INDICATES DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO DOMINATE
REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES WITH MID
DAY STRENGTH OF WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY TO AROUND 20+ MPH AT TIMES
AND AREA DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING MAY BE A FEW DEGREES DRIER FOR A
COMFORTABLE WARM SUMMER DAY THE MOST RELEVANT QUESTION.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS
AT MOST. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH MAY SEE SOME GUSTS NORTH 1/2 OF
AREA REACH OVER 20+ MPH DUE TO DEEP MIXING. AREA HIGHS SHOULD BE
NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND OF AROUND 80F IN NORTH TO NEAR 85F FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND
5 MPH BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR
TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS. CURRENTLY HAVE A RANGE OF 58 TO 63
DEGREES. FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED
WITH BL DECOUPLING BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL WHICH WILL BRING TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS INSIST THAT THE
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDE THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN REGARDS TO
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THESE WAVES AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE ALLBLEND HAS CHANCE POPS DURING THIS
ENTIRE TIME FRAME BUT LATER SHIFTS CAN NARROW THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION IF/WHEN THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS LOOK TO CREEP BACK UP HIGHER BUT NOTHING EXTREME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM MOSTLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL END BY 29/10Z WITH
ISOLATED AND BRIEF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. THEN...SKIES WILL BECOME
FAIR WITH NW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.

IL...NONE.

MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS


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