Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 091734
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1134 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
MANY LOCATIONS PICKING UP A DUSTING OF FLUFFY SNOW. A NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTING OVER 20 MPH RESULTED IN SOME SHALLOW BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS AREA-
WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE THE LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW EARLY...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND
CHILL VALUES TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE LIGHT...FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW AND THE
LINGERING BRISK NORTHWEST WIND ARE PRODUCING SOME SHALLOW BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HAVE HANDLED THIS ISSUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN RAPIDLY
SHUTTING DOWN THE FORCING AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE MAINLY IN WESTERN
ILLINOIS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REBOUND A FEW
DEGREES...GENERALLY REACHING THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT THE NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO STAY UP ABOVE 10 MPH.
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO EVALUATE FOR POTENTIAL
HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

WEDNESDAY...COLD...HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...
APPROXIMATELY 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF
FEBRUARY. ALL MODELS PAINT LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE DVN CWA AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS NORTHERN ALBERTA
TUESDAY EVENING...THEN REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY AFTN OR EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS IS TO
KEEP THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE TRACK AND EXACT
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE SOME YET.

AS IT STANDS NOW...THE COUNTIES ALONG A LINE FROM CEDAR RAPIDS TO
THE QUAD CITIES WOULD BE ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF
THE LIGHT SNOW SHIELD THEREFORE RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...SNOWFALL UP TO 1 INCH IS
POSSIBLE WITH QPF NEAR 0.05 HUNDREDTHS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE TOO WARM FOR HIGH SNOW RATIOS...12-TO-1 SEEMS
REASONABLE.

SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ARE FORECAST AT NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A
LITTLE COLDER ACROSS THE FAR NORTH NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
ZERO.

THURSDAY...QUIET AND CONTINUED COLD. TEENS NORTH OF I-80...20S TO
THE SOUTH. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT INTO THE LOWER 20S FAR
NORTH...MID 20S ALONG I-80...AND LOWER 30S FAR SOUTH. WNW WINDS
WARM 850MB TEMPS BUT ONLY TO BETWEEN -8 C TO -12 C.

LIGHT SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.
HIGHEST POPS ARE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN BETWEEN 20-40
PERCENT. AGAIN ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT BECAUSE
SIMILAR TO THE WEDNESDAY CLIPPER THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER WEAK.
CURRENT FORECAST QPF IS AT 0.05 INCHES OR LESS.

SATURDAY...STRONG 1045-1048 HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...ADVECTING COLDER TEMPS INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/AND NE
MISSOURI. FOR THIS REASON...LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...CREATING
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...BUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S BELOW ZERO ALONG AND NORTH OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO GALENA LINE. A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE CWA.

850MB TEMPS WILL FALL DOWN TO NEAR -18 C. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPS ARE ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...UPPER TEENS
FAR SOUTH...MID TEENS ALONG I-80...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS OVER
THE NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY...SW RETURN FLOW RESULTS IN LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ECMWF SUGGESTS COLD ENOUGH
THERMAL PROFILES FOR MOSTLY SNOW...GFS IS A LITTLE WARMER...CANNOT
GET TOO MUCH INTO THE DETAILS YET. UTTECH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
WITH POCKETS OF VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z/10 THAT MAY
IMPACT A TAF SITE. IF A SNOW SHOWER IMPACTS A TAF SITE A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER SHOWERS.
AFT 00Z/10 CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08


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