Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 160353
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
953 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Mid clouds have continued to form over the area so far tonight,
and as the storm system moved to the north over MN, winds are
becoming stronger from the south. This is keeping temperatures up,
even in clear locations to the southwest. I have conservatively
bumped up lows about 3 degrees. This mild start will give us quite
the boost into a warm Saturday!

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

A weak upper level disturbance dropped southeast through the area
today and produced light snow showers and flurries along and north
of Interstate 80. Mid afternoon temperatures were around 30
degrees from Dubuque eastward and warmed into the low 40s west of
a line from Independence to Burlington, where some sun broke
through the cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Short term radar trends and CAMS suggest a few flurries will
continue into the evening across the far northeast. Otherwise,
expect a general decrease in clouds with a southwest breeze
holding overnight temperatures up in the mid 20s to low 30s.

For Saturday, a frontal boundary will sag into the far north, and
this will likely create a rather large north to south temperature
spread. Have favored the warmer end of guidance, and still may not
be warm enough in the far south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Saturday night into Sunday, weak flow and moisture convergence
along the front will result in fog development, mainly along and
north of Highway 30. A shortwave trough will move through the
region in southwest flow aloft on Sunday, with precipitation
favored central and south. Thermal profiles favor mainly a
rain/snow mix on the leading edge of the precip shield, quickly
changing over to all rain.

Late Sunday night into Monday, some light rain and possibly
light freezing rain will persist near the front, along and east of
the Mississippi River.

Looking ahead, expect mild zonal flow Tuesday into Wednesday, with
afternoon highs mainly in the 40s. The next system could impact
the forecast area on Thursday into Friday. Confidence remains low
as to the eventual storm track and timing as well as precip type
and amounts, and will continue to watch closely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

A warm front has not lifted north through the area, and with that,
has brought a period of stable VFR conditions to the region.
Southwest winds around 8 to 10 kts will blow through tomorrow,
with only mid clouds and cirrus expected. By later Saturday
evening, a slow moving front will approach northeast Iowa again
from the north. That front will bring low clouds and fog potential
to northern areas after 00z/16.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ervin
SYNOPSIS...RP Kinney
SHORT TERM...RP Kinney
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...Ervin


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