Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 141157
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
657 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH THE PRECIP NOW EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE DOES SHOW PLENTY OF ACCAS WHICH SUPPORTS MORE
CLOUDS FORMING LATER TODAY.

THE RAIN IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST BUT SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. A WEAK LOW WAS OVER EASTERN IOWA
BETWEEN KIIB AND KCID. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WITH 70S FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S WERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THE CURRENT WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SUNRISE. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY.

AFTER SUNRISE...VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. DAYTIME HEATING
ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL DEVELOP CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. BY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL START DROPPING BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST AREAS AS THE LAST UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA.
AFTER SUNSET...DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND WIND
SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO APPROACH RECORD LOWS. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 15TH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

LIKELY RECORD COOL LOWS AND WELL BELOW NORMALS THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...THEN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND STILL MOSTLY DRY TO DRY.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH MINOR PHASING ISSUES
WITH CANADIAN UPPER LOW THAT HAS LITTLE IMPACTS TO FORECAST. LITTLE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES WITH A 50/50 MIX OF SOLUTIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIR AND BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD MINS WEDNESDAY MORNING...SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW. LATER SHIFTS PER LOCAL TOOLS SUGGEST HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO TOO
LOW AND LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES TOO MILD FOR A SLIGHTLY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE. CLOUDS MOSTLY AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS NE ON TUESDAY AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF THE SAME ON WEDNESDAY
PM FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER. SLOW MODIFICATION OF CANADIAN AIRMASS
WITH HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY INTO SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...ADDED LOW POPS WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH MODERATE HUMIDITIES. LIMITED STRENGTH
OF SHORT WAVE FORCING AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS MARGINAL SEVERE RISK
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z/15
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. AFT 18Z/14 NEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AT ANY
TIME AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO EASTERN IOWA.
ALTHOUGH NOT MENTIONED IN THE 12Z TAFS...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT
OF TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 18Z/14. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF ONE
AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS UNDER 10 PERCENT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 15...

MOLINE.........48 IN 1967
CEDAR RAPIDS...47 IN 1930
DUBUQUE........50 IN 1967
BURLINGTON.....52 IN 1945

RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 16...

MOLINE.........54 IN 1945
CEDAR RAPIDS...51 IN 1930
DUBUQUE........52 IN 1912
BURLINGTON.....55 IN 1912

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...08/NICHOLS




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