Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 161151
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND WAS RESULTING IN
PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WAPSI
VALLEY TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING IN AREAS WITH CALM WINDS. A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND IS
KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY ACROSS THE SOUTH. PATCHY FOG
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS CWA-WIDE UNTIL 13Z. EARLY MORNING
LOWS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE
DATE...WHICH RANGE FROM 34 TO 39 DEGREES AT THE FOUR MAIN CLIMATE
SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH A LIGHT WIND AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE 850MB COOL POCKET IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH LOW 60S
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WARMING TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST WITH
WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. AM EXPECTING A WIDER NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAN SUGGESTED BY CONSENSUS BLEND
GUIDANCE. THE FREEPORT AREA LOOKS TO BE THE COOL SPOT...AND MAY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE FAVORED IN THE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
WILL NOT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW.    RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO
OCCUPY MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GRT LKS WEST OF EAST
COAST L/W TROUGH DURING MIDWEEK. LARGE LLVL BACKDOOR TYPE ANTICYCLONE
PROGGED BY MOST 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS TO ENGULF THE GRT LKS
THROUGH THU...WITH DRY FETCH EAST TO NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
AND EVEN DEEPER INFLUENCE KEEPING THE CWA DRY THROUGH FRI AM.
CONVERGENT LLVL RETURN FLOW TO FESTER SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST WED AND WED NIGHT...WITH JUST MAYBE SOME HIGHER LVL
DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. STILL THOUGH PLENTY OF
INSOLATION WED AND THU...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WED TO
MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THU. LIGHT EAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN SUBTLE CONVERGENT REGIONS LATE WED
NIGHT...BUT DRYING SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THEN MAKES THIS
OCCURRENCE LESS PROBABLE. LONGER RANGE TRENDS SUGGEST LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE COMPLEX TO MIGRATE EASTWARD BY WEEKS END AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
PRESSES OUT/FLATTENS AS IT APPROACHES IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER WAVE ONSLAUGHT/CENTRAL CANADIAN PHASING. STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW SIGNALS FOR FRI WITH ADEQUATE MIXING IN SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...WITH A RETURN TO THE 80S POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DO NOT
CURRENTLY SEE MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR PRECIP TO FIRE ON IN THIS REGIME
ALTHOUGH LLVL MOISTURE IS STARTING TO RETURN AS WELL. MAYBE JUST AN
ISOLATED AMBIENT AIRMASS TYPE SHOWER OR STORM IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
LOCAL AREA PROBABLY TO REMAIN DRY FRI NIGHT AS WELL AS FRESHLY
ENERGIZED WESTERLIES LIGHT UP THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACRS TO THE
NORTHERN GRT LKS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.

SATURDAY THOUGH NEXT MONDAY...INTERESTING SIGNAL ON THE MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF OF SUGGESTING REMNANTS
OF ODILE TO GET DRAWN UP IN L/W PHASING PROCESS ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SAT...WITH A POSSIBLY CLOSED CIRCULATION/CYCLONE
PROPAGATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE ACRS THE MID TO UPPER MS
RVR VALLEY. THE 00Z RUN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE LLVL CIRCULATION TO
ROLL UP ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA BY SAT NIGHT...
EFFECTIVELY PRODUCING A HEAVY RAIN DEF ZONE TYPE FEATURE ACRS AT
LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE DVN CWA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED UP ALONG WITH IT BOOSTING
PWAT/S TO UNSEASONABLE LEVELS AGAIN COULD MEAN 2-4+ INCHES OF RAIN
IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP BANDS MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM LATE
SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A DEFINITE TREND TO WATCH IN
UPCOMING SOLUTIONS/MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS. WITH ANOTHER
FRESHLY ESTABLISHED L/W TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ACRS THE GRT
LKS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER COOL DUMP
DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY BY NEXT MON OR TUE.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

BRIEF PERIODS OF MAINLY MVFR FOG WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 16...

MOLINE.........37 IN 1984
CEDAR RAPIDS...34 IN 1937
DUBUQUE........34 IN 1984
BURLINGTON.....39 IN 1984

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY






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