Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

000
FXUS63 KDVN 191809
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
109 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LOW WAS NORTH OF KMBG WITH A WARM FRONT EAST INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH 40S FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT
LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

EASTER SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WINNER...WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...AND QUITE MILD TEMPERATURES WHILE THE RAIN LIKELY
REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. I HAVE
DISREGARDED THE GFS FOR THIS WEEKEND...AS IT APPEARS FAR TO MOIST AT
LOW LEVELS...AND FAVORING A MORE CONSERVATIVE GEM/UKMET/ECMWF BLEND.
WITH DEWPOINTS MOST LIKELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...THE BULK OF OUR RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE HELD TO THE MAIN
TROF PASSAGE ALOFT. THIS IS TIMED THROUGH ROUGHLY MID DAY MONDAY.
THEREFORE...MONDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR
RAINFALL...BUT GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...AM INCLINED TO GO CHANCE TO
VERY LOW END LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BY MONDAY
EVENING...THE FORCING SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HAVE A MILD START...WITH CONTINUED WAA
THROUGH THE DAY. AM BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO FILTERED
SUNSHINE WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO THE WEST TO HELP BOOST HIGHS TO
THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. MONDAY
COULD BE VERY MILD AS WELL OF MORE DRY HOURS OCCUR THAN
FORECAST...BUT WILL GO WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
FOR NOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK SYSTEM MONDAY...WE WILL SEE A COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE FILL IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT BOUT OF UPPER FORCING BEGINS
WEDNESDAY...AS THE WAA CONVERGES AGAINST A WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY BY LOW CONFIDENCE TIMED IMPULSE BASED FORCING
THURSDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROF AND SURFACE FRONT APPEAR DUE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND MODELS ARE GREATLY VARIED ON HOW THEY REFLECT THE
LOCATION OF THIS EVENT. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDER GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LATE APRIL CAPE AVAILABILITY AND STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS. THIS LATE WORK WEEK SYSTEM APPEARS NOT TO PRESENT
MUCH OF A SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTAL EVENT AT THIS TIME.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 10KFT. THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL GUST FROM
THE SOUTH AT UP TO 20 KTS BUT WILL RELAX WITH SUNSET.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...DMD







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.