Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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336
FXUS63 KDVN 160827
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
227 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 225 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Little change with clear skies and light northwest flow as high pressure
moves in. Temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s at 2 AM CST. Some
high clouds from the north which will slide southeast by morning. Upper
ridging to move in late this week bringing more dry weather the next
several days with warmer temps into the 50s and 60s for highs this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Short Term Forecast Confidence Assessment...good or above average as
continue pattern of no sensible weather issues beyond warming from the
southwest. With dry ground and decent warm air advection the rate of
warmup from southwest to northeast the main issue. The max temps based
on persistence and good BL mixing should again tend to be up to a few
degrees above mildest guidance, especially in southwest sections of
the area. Most locations should be within 3 degrees though NE sections
of forecast area may tend 3+ degrees cooler if BL mixing is a bit delayed.

Today...mostly sunny to sunny with some passing high clouds and significantly
warmer by 10 degrees NE to 20 degrees SW. This will be 12 to 24 degrees
NE to SW above normal. Expecting highs in the mid/upper 40s far northeast
into the lower 60s in the southwest 1/3 of the forecast area. Winds
to be southerly at 10 to 15+ MPH. will tend to be 10 to occasionally
near 20 MPH into mid afternoon hours.

Tonight...mostly clear with again some occasional thin high clouds.
Winds should be light southerly allowing for lows in the upper 20s far
NE to the middle/upper 30s southwest 2/3 of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Little change in the long term forecast as far as temperatures go with
this forecast package. The main forecast concern is how high do we go
and whether or not we will see thunder Monday across the area.

As far as high temperatures go, the GFS has continued it`s streak of
being well underdone for high temps in comparison to the other models.
This has pulled down the temps for the weekend. Looking at other guidance,
a good 3 to 4 degrees higher than superblend look reasonable for high
temperatures. Still think we could end up higher, however still at this
time, confidence is low in how high they will get. Some of the models
are close to 70 on Monday, which is not totally out of the question.

That brings us to Monday with a progressive wave through the flow. The
best upper level forcing will be to the north. This forcing will elicit
the return of BL moisture to the area. With dewpoints in the 50s on
Monday. Guidance is starting to agree with pops on Monday and Monday
night across the area. The lapse rates still remain weak so do not have
much confidence putting it in. It does appear that we stay in the 50s
and 40s after Monday before another system for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Vfr conditions will persist through the period. Light and variable
winds will turn southerly on Thursday peaking at around 10-15 kts
by late morning through mid afternoon.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Nichols
SHORT TERM...Nichols
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...McClure



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