000
FXUS63 KDVN 210543
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1243 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING OCCLUDING CYCLONE COMPLEX ACRS
THE EASTERN SD/ND REGION...WITH LEAD FRONT PUSHING ACRS WESTERN IA
BUT BETTER COLD WRAP AROUND NOTED ACRS SD INTO CENTRAL NEB. THE
REGION HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH BATHED IN PRESSURE RISES TODAY...BUT
FALLS INCREASING ACRS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MO. MAIN WARM FRONT
ACRS CENTRAL MN...FAR NORTHERN WI INTO THE NORTHERN LOWER MI.
SECONDARY FRONT ACRS WESTERN OK...AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACRS CENTRAL MO ACTING AS BETTER SFC DPT POOLING MECHANISMS.
LOCALLY IN SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW...SFC DPTS HAVING TROUBLE GETTING
OUT OF THE LOWER 60S WITH FETCH BACK INTO SIMILAR AIR MASS IN
NORTHEASTERN KS/FAR NW MO. CUT-OFF UPPER LOW ALMOST STACKED OVER
SFC FEATURE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING NOSE OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL SPEED MAX PUSHING ACRS NORTHEASTERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

TONIGHT...ASSESSING LOCAL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...CAPES HAVE GROWN
TO ONLY 500 TO MAYBE 1000 J/KG ACRS PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA...WITH
18Z SOUNDING SHOWING ROBUST H85 CAP/CONVECTIVE TEMP IN THE UPPER
80S. LACK OF AMBIENT CU LOCALLY A CLUE. DEEP UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLIES
MAKING FOR MODERATE SHEAR/SPEED/ AT BEST. WITH MAIN VORT AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX STILL ACRS KS...DEEPER FORCING TO NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL MAINLY AFTER 00Z. THUS REST OF THIS AFTERNOON MAY SEE
A LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE INDICE MAX
REALIGNING ACRS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN/NORTHWEST MO THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...EXPECT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THESE
AREAS TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND BE THE SCTRD STORMS TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. THIS AND POSSIBLY SOME DEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF THE WESTERN IA FRONT IN CU FIELD ONGOING OUT THERE ATTM. BUT
WITH YET UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT STRONG
CONVECTION...THIS ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AS IT ARRIVES UNLESS SOME
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS ATTM. IF STORMS DO
MAINTAIN AND MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME SVR
CELLS LOOKING AT CURRENT AND PROGGED SHEAR PROFILES BUT MAIN
THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY LINER/BOWING
DEVELOPMENT IN UNIFORM VERTICAL WIND FIELDS. LLVL SHEAR DIRECTION
AND HIGHER LCL/S OF AT LEAST 3K FT AGL CURRENTLY NOT THAT CONDUCIVE
FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. WILL KNOCK DOWN 00Z-06Z COVERAGE TO HIGH
CHC AND LIKELY POPS ACRS MOST OF THE DVN CWA...THEN WALK OUT ANY
LINGERING ACTIVITY AFTER 08Z FROM THE EASTERN CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BURSTS POSSIBLE...BUT MOVEMENT OF STORMS HOPEFULLY WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT UNLESS THE SAME AREA GETS
HIT REPEATEDLY AND HAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN LAST NIGHT. LOWS MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWESTERN FCST AREA...BUT HELD IN THE
60S ELSEWHERE.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT
MON MAY 20 2013

UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO GRADUALLY FILL AND SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND MID LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANGE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER BY LATE WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND...A
COOLER...UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS AS RETURNING MOISTURE INTERACTS
WITH A BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. THIS WILL SEND THE OCCLUDED FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY TROUGH IS INDICATED
BY THE NAM DURING PEAK HEATING. EACH OF THESE FEATURES WILL POSSIBLY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING...STRENGTH...OR AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH THESE
FEATURES...HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. SUPPORT FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS LACKING DUE TO LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND LIKELY
LESS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB AND LIKELIHOOD OF MORE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE MID 70S WEST TO POSSIBLY MID 80S EAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED...SURFACE LOW TRANSITIONING EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND FILLING UPPER LOW MIGRATING OVERHEAD TO KEEP
CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS GOING WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE
EAST. ADVECTION OF COOLER... DRIER AIR TO ALLOW MINS TO COOL INTO
THE 50S WITH WED HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD ALLOWING
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD SOME TO LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY LOWER 70S FOR FRI...WHILE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S AS THE CENTER OF THE INCOMING RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAINS A BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS OF RETURN
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION FLOW...THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY...AND WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL SET UP. FOR NOW...A BLENDED APPROACH TO DIVERSE
SOLUTIONS WILL KEEP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY
WHEN THE ODDS ARE GREATER THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF
THE AREA.     SHEETS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORM CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE REST OF OVERNIGHT UNTIL MID AM TUE...BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT TERMINALS ASIDE FROM KDBQ
WHERE VCSH NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL PAST 12 HRS...WHICH
INCLUDES KBRL. HAVE OPTED FOR TEMPO OF MVFR VSBYS AT KBRL AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE... KEPT REST OF THE TAF CYCLE DRY ALTHOUGH
CANT RULE OUT SOME PCPN ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPING AHEAD OF PLAINS UPPER LOW AS IT DRIFTS
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY FROM
SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 15 TO 25 KTS...THEN DIMINISH BELOW 10 KTS
TOWARD SUNSET AND MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...05