000
FXUS63 KDVN 160816
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
316 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK FRONT RUNNING FROM NEAR KGRB INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SEVERAL MESO LOWS AND HIGHS RAN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
50S AND 60S ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A NARROW TONGUE OF 70S FROM THE
GULF COAST INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
CURRENT MCS MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER ACROSS KANSAS.
LOW CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL IOWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TODAY AND UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. DOWNWARD MOTION BEHIND THE MCS MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PREVENT ANY NEW CONVECTION FROM DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY ARE WELL ABOVE
THE FCST HIGH TEMPERATURES.

THE LOW CLOUDS IN CENTRAL IOWA WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME
DURING THE DAY AND BLOW OFF FROM THE KANSAS MCS WILL THIN WITH TIME
AS WELL.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE QUESTION BECOMES WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA. THE MCS TOOLS SUGGEST DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNRISE MONDAY WHILE THE LIFT TOOLS SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE OF WEAK
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ARRIVING JUST PRIOR TO DAWN. AS SUCH HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SCHC FOR VERY LATE TONIGHT.       ..08..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE...THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK WILL PRESENT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT
SUMMER WEATHER. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NW FLOW GIVES WAY TO A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON WV IMAGERY SHEARING OUT OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA IS SHOWN EJECTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKENING TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NW ACROSS WI INTO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON...ACTING AS A POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL LIFT
ARE RATHER WEAK...FORECAST SURFACE BASED CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGEST AT LEAST A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DURING PEAK HEATING AND WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS. WILL BANK ON
AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S...AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE SAME AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN
IN PLACE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR DISSIPATING DAYTIME CONVECTION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS...FEEDING MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
BE LIMITED TO THE 70S BOTH DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. SOME UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE WED MORNING OVER
ESPECIALLY NW IL WHEN THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A REBUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A FEED OF GULF
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE PLAINS. RESULTING WARM ADVECTION AND
RISING HEIGHTS WILL RETURN HIGHS TO MAINLY THE 80S OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS HOLDING MINS IN THE 60S...THEN POSSIBLY
LOWER 70S BY THE WEEKEND. THE RETURNING MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BRING BACK A SETUP FAVORABLE FOR MCS
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD WHERE CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

IFR/LIFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN CENTRAL IOWA. THESE
CIGS MAY AFFECT KCID/KDBQ BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/17. AFT 06Z/17
WINDS BECOME LIGHT WHICH MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR MVFR/IFR VSBYS WITH
FOG DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE FORECAST VLIFR IN SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL
IOWA WHERE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR/IFR. ..08..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...08