Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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201
FXUS63 KDVN 040542
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS A SEASONALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE HURON
WITH A TROF EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC INTO EASTERN
MISSOURI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE PLAINS WHILE 20S AND 30S RAN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

LINGERING FLURRIES WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR IN THE FAR WEST
AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. THE
CLEARING SKIES COMBINED WITH DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

GENERALLY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER A WEAK CLIPPER VORT ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA THU EVENING. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR
NOW...BUT A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA THRU MIDNIGHT. THEN SFC RIDGE LOBE AS WELL AS UPSTREAM
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACRS THE AREA INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. WITH SOME CLEAR OUT AND SFC WIND DECREASE...TEMPS OVER THE
SNOW COVER AREAS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CWA COULD DIP TOWARD THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS BY FRI MORNING. THEN BROAD NORTHWESTERLIES ACRS THE
UPPER HALF OF THE CONUS WILL LOOK TO MAINTAIN ACTIVE CLIPPER TRACK
OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GRT LKS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST RUN
12Z MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON ANOTHER WAVE ROLLING INTO THE GRT LKS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT...TRYING TO PHASE WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS
TROF ENERGY IN THE PROCESS. THE NET RESULT COULD BE THE DVN CWA
MAINLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN PRECIP MAKING PROCESSES...BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. BACK TO FRIDAY...LATER DAY WARM DRAW BY
THE APPROACHING WAVE MAY TRANSLATE INTO LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH OF I80. LIGHT LLVL SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWEST FLOW
INDUCED BY THE PASSING WAVE TO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP MOST LOWS IN
THE 20S FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MAIN THEME FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
MODERATING TEMPS...AS YET ANOTHER AND MORE VIGOROUS CLIPPER TYPE
WAVE RIDES THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE AND DUMPS DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY AND INTO THE GRT LKS BY LATE SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH
EVEN SOME LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH ON SAT COULD IMPROVE TO MID 30S
IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...TO THE MID 40S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80
BY SUNDAY. SOME ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES EVE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. BUT THEN THE OTHER SHOE DROPS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF A VIGORIZED IN-WRAPPING COLD CONVEYOR
BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE DIGGING A TROF ACRS THE GRT LKS. SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION PRECIP POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...
VARYING FROM THE AGGRESSIVE 12Z GFS WHICH SAYS ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOWERS OR BANDED SNOW STREAKS PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH OR MORE OF
SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS INCREASING TO
20-30 MPH AND GUSTS AT LEAST IN THE UPPER 30S...TO THE 1Z ECMWF
WHICH PRODUCES JUST FLURRIES.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LONGER RANGE UPPER JET PATTERNS AND
AN A.O. INDEX CRASHING TO THE NEGATIVE SIDE SUPPORT THE LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL TRENDS OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EVOLVING ACRS
THE CONUS...WITH THE LOCAL AREA UNFORTUNATELY UNDER THE NEAR
MERIDIONAL GUN OF THE COLD CORE L/W TROF THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY OPEN
THE REGION TO ONE OR TWO ARCTIC DUMPS...WITH THE GFS ROTATING DOWN
-24 TO -28C H85 MB TEMPS ACRS THE CWA BY LATE TUE. THE 12Z ECMWF
ONLY HAS -14 TO -18C VALUES AT THAT TIME. FOR NOW WILL HAMMER OUT
HIGHS AND LOWS USING A BLEND OF THE TEMP POTENTIALS AND TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER EXCEPT THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD/WHICH
MAY GET ERODED SOME THIS WEEKEND/. BUT WITH THE COLD CORE UPPER
LOW...THE MODELS ARE PRODUCING SCTRD SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
ROTATING AROUND THAT FEATURE FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
IF THE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES OF THE 12Z GFS VERIFY...EVEN WITH
MINIMAL SNOW COVER LOWS TUE NIGHT WOULD BE WELL BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
I80. WIND CHILLS COULD BE APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AS WELL.
     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. MAINLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH PERIODIC
VFR CIGS WITH PASSING WARM FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
OR BRIEF SNOW SHOWER NORTH OF I-80 LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY VICINITY OF DBQ TERMINAL BEING CLOSER TO
FORCING... BUT THE PROBABILITY APPEARS FAR TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION
WITH 06Z TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST EARLY
THURSDAY AM AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY.
COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05



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