Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 172023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
323 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Latest SFC analysis was indicating low pressure northeast of the
Omaha area, with frontal system extending up into the western U.P.
of MI. SFC pressure falls were increasing ATTM along this feature
from northwestern IA...south central and southeastern MN and much of
WI. SFC pressure falls were increasing overhead as well, and tight
warm sector pressure gradient driving southerly wind gusts in the 30
to near 40 MPH range acrs much of the CWA, some areas not that far
off of wind advisory criteria. Record high temps being neared or
broken along and south of I80. Despite these brisk mixing winds and
sunshine, sfc dpts are maintaining generally in the mid 60s acrs much
of the area and resultant higher humidities for this time of day may
be tempering the unharvested crop field fire ignition potential.
Aloft, water vapor imagery and 12z upper air analysis were
indicating a vigorous vort max complex acrs northwestern NEB into
far southwestern MN ATTM.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Tonight...the above mentioned sfc wave, as well as vort complex
aloft will look to migrate east-northeastward acrs southern MN into
WI overnight. Associated sfc boundaries and warm front will continue
to be the llvl focus for shower and thunderstorm development this
evening and overnight acrs these areas just to the north of the
local area of concern. Will keep the forecast dry even in the far
north. SREF handling of the incoming cool front suggests veering
profiles and mean FROPA acrs the MS RVR from 2-3 AM or so, and
exiting out of the eastern and southeastern CWA toward 12z Tue. pre-
frontal southwesterly LLJ of 40-50+ KTs will make for turbulent
conditions just aloft, but hopefully mainly clear skies after dark
and some atmospheric layering will reduce sfc momentum transfer as
the evening progresses and stronger gusts diminish. Post-frontal
lows may dip into the low to mid 50s in the far northwest, while the
far east and southeast(last to experience the FROPA) holds up in the
mid 60s thru 12z.

Tuesday...Drying post-frontal day as the main front sags south acrs
southern MO and up along/just to the north of the OH RVR Valley.
This feature will be the late day and evening convective focus acrs
those areas, while a bubble of high pressure slides toward the area
out of the central/northern plains. Expect highest sfc winds from
the west-northwest at 10-20 MPH during the morning into early
afternoon, before the decrease into late Tue afternoon. High temps
based on limited mixing up into the undercut made inversion up to H9
MB for highs in the mid to upper 60s in the northwestern quarter of
the CWA, while most of the rest of the CWA makes it into the 70-75
degree range.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Forecast focus on no significant rain through the extended with
normal to slightly above normal temperatures for mid October.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Cold front settles into the
MO Ozarks while a wave of low pressure moves along the front. This
will spread rain across the mid MS Valley with the northern fringe
of the rain shield grazing the far southern cwa. The ECMWF is
somewhat farther north compared to the GFS, which essentially keeps
the cwa dry. For now will maintain the small pops especially on
Wednesday. Cooler temperatures can be expected with highs in the mid
60s to around 70.

Thursday through Friday:  In the wake of the system cool air is
pulled southward as an upper level trough digs strongly into the
Great Lakes region. Any instability showers should remain east of
the cwa as the airmass looks quite dry over the dvn cwa. Highs will
be in the mid 50s to lower 60s with lows dipping into the 30s by
early Friday morning. These readings are near normal for mid October.

This weekend: Pleasant weather in store as the deep trough in the
eastern United States gradually shifts easward. High pressure will
be over the area with mainly clear skies. Highs should be in the 60s
with lows in the 40s.  This is near to slightly above normal.

Early next week: High pressure moves to the east with a return to a
zonal flow aloft, but with increasing clouds. Highs will be in the
60s to the lower 70s.



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Band of mainly MVFR stratocu deck clouds should lift to VFR levels
or scatter out at CID by mid afternoon, but may hang in at DBQ
through evening. Sctrd to BKN MVFR clouds along and south of I80
this afternoon going mainly clear overnight. Gusty south to
southwest sfc winds of 15 to 25 KTs with higher gusts into the
evening, then a cool front acrs the plains will sweep in from the
west later tonight and veer the winds to the west by midnight
through 3 AM CDT, and to the northwest by mid Tue morning. Wind
speed overnight generally 10-15 KTs sustained. Some indication
cloud ceilings may lower back to MVFR along and post-frontally
later tonight especially along and north of I80.   ..12..


ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Record Highs for Today October 17...

Moline.........86 in 1950
Cedar Rapids...86 in 1950
Dubuque........86 in 1950
Burlington.....87 in 1950




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