Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 281737
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1237 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ALBEIT SLOWLY THROUGH MID DAY WHICH
BRINGS QUESTIONS AS TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET. SOME AREAS IN THE HWY
20 CORRIDOR MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 THIS AFTERNOON. RESPECTABLE
MIXING IS LOWERING THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BUT THIS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.

SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR VERY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE/FORCING IS WEAK SO THOSE AREAS WERE KEPT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROP 5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY...NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AND COOLER FRESH AIR FROM CANADA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE. MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MESO WANT TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA TODAY. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE IN MN THAT THE MODELS DROP SOUTHEAST BUT THE AIRMASS IN
THE DVN CWA APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTH WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE...THEN READINGS
MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING RECORD
LOWS AS THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED PM
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW... BUT
ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW NEAR TO EAST OF CWA. 850 MB TEMPS SHOWN
TO WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10-11C TO 13-14C BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH CANCELLATION RESULTING IN
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION ON TEMPS (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/30 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE MIDWEST. A VCSH OR SHRA CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT
KCID THROUGH 00Z/29 BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING IS UNDER
10 PERCENT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08







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