Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 171138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
638 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016


Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

At 2 AM CDT, the region is under near record October warmth with temperatures
still in the upper 60s to lower 70s with south winds of 10 MPH with
isolated gusts to 20 MPH. A short wave will pass by to the north resulting
in near record high temperatures today and breezy to windy south to
southwest winds. A dry cool front will bring temperatures closer to
normal Tuesday with dry conditions lasting into late this week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Short term forecast confidence assessment...good or above average
with little sensible weather issues. High breezy to windy
conditions get mid day to late afternoon one issue. Local tools
suggest 15 to 25 MPH northwest 1/3 to 20 to 30+ MPH southeast 1/2
to 2/3. Temperatures should be within 3 degrees across the region
for highs and lows.

Today...mostly sunny to partly cloudy with breezy to locally windy south
to southwest winds of 15 to 30+ MPH. Highs should be near records and
may possibly tie or break some long standing records listed in the Climate
section. Generally highs should make the upper 80s south to around
80 degrees in the far north.

Tonight...a dry cool front will pass with southwest winds decreasing
and switching to the west at 5 to 10 MPH by around or after
midnight. Lows will be a bit of a challenge with a decent
gradient, the middle 50s in the northwest to the middle 60s in the

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Turning much cooler late this week.

Dry conditions will be seen across the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night as high pressure moves through the Midwest. Temperatures
should average around 5 degrees above normal. Attention then turns
to the next storm system.

The models differ on where the next storm system will track for
Wednesday and Wednesday night. The CMC global and WRF models keep
the storm system well to the south and have dry conditions. The GFS
is further north and catches roughly the southeast half of the area.
The ECMWF is much further north and brings precipitation to much of
the area. As a result, the model consensus has slight chance to low
chance pops for the southeast half of the area Wednesday with mainly
dry conditions Wednesday night.

Thursday on...

Much cooler conditions will be seen across the area on Thursday and
Friday with temperatures averaging below normal. Although moisture
is limited, a passing upper level disturbance may generate some
showers on Thursday. As such the model consensus has slight chance
pops for Thursday. Thursday night/Friday look to be dry as high
pressure builds into the Midwest.

The model consensus has dry conditions for the area from Friday
night through Sunday. The main storm tracks are well north and south
of the area. Temperatures should be close to normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

MVFR to VFR conditions across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois
that will improve to VFR through 18z/17. 12z upper air flight
shows LLWS with a speed differential of 25 knots around 2 kft AGL.
Daytime heating will drop this speed differential below 15 knots
by mid-morning. However, low level mechanical turbulence from the
gusty surface winds is likely and will continue until sunset.
After 00z/18 VFR conditions will continue through 12z/18 as a dry
cold front moves through the area.


ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Record Highs for October 17...

Moline.........86 in 1950
Cedar Rapids...86 in 1950
Dubuque........86 in 1950
Burlington.....87 in 1950




SHORT TERM...Nichols
CLIMATE...Nichols is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.