Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 260452
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1152 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER LK
SUPERIOR...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW WRAPPING AROUND IT ACRS THE UPPER MS
RVR VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GRT LKS. THE MAIN LLVL COLD PUSH
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WAS NOW MAKING IT ACRS FAR EASTERN IA INTO NW
IL. RIDGING WAS NOSING DOWN THE PLAINS AND ACRS THE MO RVR
VALLEY...NORTH OF ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND UP THE OH RVR VALLEY. CLOUDS HOLDING ON TOUGH IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH ANY HOLES DIURNALLY STRATOCU-ING BACK UP.
SECONDARY ELEVATED LIFT PROCESS ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF UPPER MIDWEST H3
MB JET MAX INDUCING A RIBBON OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE IA/MO BORDER/SOUTHERN NEB...WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION GETTING
EATEN AWAY BY THE DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

TONIGHT...LOOKING AT 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT ANALYSIS AND TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT SOME TEMPORARY RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE SKIRTING
ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE IT ADJUSTS SOUTHEASTWARD AGAIN AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES...THERE MAY BE BETTER SUPPORT FOR A BAND OF
ELEVATED LIGHT RAIN FROM EARLY TO MID EVENING. AREAS LOOKING TO BE
TARGETED APPEAR TO BE ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO QUARTER OF THE
DVN CWA AND WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. LIFT ZONE THAT WILL LOOK
TO EVENTUALLY AFFECT THOSE AREAS NOW TAKING SHAPE ACRS NORTHEASTERN
KS AND WILL THEN SHUTTLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. THIS AS
OPPOSED TO THE ONGOING PRECIP BAND ACRS NEB/ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER
BECOMING MORE ROBUST...FEEL IT WILL DO THE OPPOSITE AND CONTINUE TO
FALL APART AS IT TRIES TO SLITHER EASTWARD. SOME CONCERN THAT THE
MODELS OVERDOING ENOUGH ELEVATE MOISTURE RETURN TO FUEL THIS
EVENING LIGHT RAIN BAND AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH AT ALL IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING/LOW CHC OF MEASURING...BUT FOR NOW WILL
KEEP CHC POPS GOING.

AS FOR THE CLOUDS...WILL BANK ON THE WANING OF DIURNAL PROCESSES
AFTER DARK AND DRYING LLVL NORTHWEST FEED/INCOMING H85 MB COLD FRONT
WILL HELP ERODE THE LOWER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THU
MORNING. IF THE CLOUD CEILINGS CAN DECREASE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST SFC
WINDS DROPPING BELOW 10 MPH...THERE WILL BE SOME SEASONABLY CHILLY
LOWS IN THE 20S NORTH OF I80.

THURSDAY...WITH INCOMING LLVL RIDGE LOBE...DRY AIR AND COLD H85 MB
POOL WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FRO MOST OF THE AREA...NEEDING TO MIX
DEEPLY UP CLOSE TO H85 MB EVEN TO GET THOSE VALUES. BUT WITH
ONGOING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED VORT MAX SPOKE-ING
IT/S WAY DOWN ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS...SOME CONCERN THAT CU
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE TO THE EXTENT FOR MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY EVEN
THOUGH THE CU RULE PARAMETERS SAY MAINLY CLEAR.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

CONTINUED DRY PATTERN NEXT 7 DAYS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNTIL
SUNDAY....THEN WARMER THEN NORMAL NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST QUALITY ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OR ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE. LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES WITH
NW FLOW ALOFT AND JET TO OUR SOUTH AND NORTH. NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES
WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS WITH OVERALL TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL
MOST DAYS. DIURNAL TRENDS VERIFIED THAT MOST DAYS HIGHS WILL TEND
TO BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. NIGHTS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND BL
DECOUPLING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ARE LIKELY AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES TOO HIGH FOR LATER SHIFTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FAIR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH
MINS IN THE 15 TO 25 DEGREES. SATURDAY NIGHT...MINS MOSTLY IN THE
20S AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
10 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH POSSIBLE CHANCE
FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAIN ISSUE DUE TO NW FLOW. HIGHS
SUNDAY MAY STILL BE 3+ DEGREES TOO LOW IF GET SUNSHINE AND GOOD SW
WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE AROUND 50F FAR NE
TO AROUND 60F FAR SE AND MINS IN THE 30S WITH PASSAGE MAY NEED LOWERING
IF SKIES CLEAR. POPS ARE MOSTLY IN 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE WITH AMOUNTS
LIKELY WELL BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH...IF AT ALL.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY PACIFIC AIR TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH 60S FOR HIGHS COMMON AND MINS
GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CIGS VICINITY OF DBQ TERMINAL EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR EARLY IN
THE MORNING WHILE REST OF TAF SITES REMAIN VFR THROUGH MID MORNING
THURSDAY. MIXING AND COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY SHOULD BRING ABOUT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SCT-BKN STRATOCU WITH MVFR TO
LOWER VFR BASES FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05



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