Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 221608
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1108 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

SENT UPDATE TO ADJUST HIGHS FOR TEMP AND CLOUDS TRENDS TODAY.
COOLEST READINGS NORTH NEAR HWY 20 CORRIDOR WHERE HIGHS LIKELY
HELD DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH CLOUDS AND NORTH WINDS.
MEANWHILE WARMEST READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE FOUND
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL WITHIN CURRENT DWINDLING
WEDGE OF SUNNY SKIES. CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
SHALLOW/ WEAK SHOWERS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL
SHOULD CONVECTIVE TEMPS BE BREACHED WITH READINGS INTO THE UPPER
60S. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

PATCHY FOG WAS OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT LINE THAT WAS
PUSHING INTO IL. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAYS RAIN WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
STRATUS IN MN...WI AND WESTERN IA. 2 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN
CWA RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

HEADLINES...HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTHWEST IL
ONLY FOR STEPHENSON COUNTY FOR LATE TONIGHT.

TODAY...AREA OF STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE DVN CWA THIS
MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...DURING THE
AFTERNOON A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITH SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON THIS WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO
THE 60S.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA BRINGING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST IL TO THE MID 40S IN NORTHEAST MO.
WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR STEPHENSON COUNTY WHERE THE
COOLEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND. ELSEWHERE IN NW IL WE WILL MENTION
PATCHY FROST AND LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE IF THE ADVISORY NEEDS TO
BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OTHER COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY...BEFORE WARM ADVECTION
REALLY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH OF IOWA. THIS
SHOULD KEEP ANY WARM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SOME TOKEN SLIGHT POPS ARE
RETAINED DUE TO MODEL BLENDING IN NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...BUT I EXPECT THOSE TO BE REMOVED IN
FUTURE ISSUANCES.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WITH
INCREASED MIXING AND SUNSHINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...I WENT A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES...AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE
TRENDS RISING. LOWS IN THE 50S WILL RISE TO HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOWER
80S SUNDAY...AS FRONTAL TIMING SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS IN THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE COVERAGE POSSIBLY
WANES AS THE LINE MOVES EAST AFTER SUNSET. MODELS LIKELY ARE MOVING
THE LINE TOO SLOWLY...AND WE WILL KEEP THE HIGH CHANCE TO LOWER
LIKELY POPS GOING. IF THE LINE CAN MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS
BEFORE 6 PM...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE...BUT THAT SHOULD
QUICKLY STABILIZE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

POPS LINGER THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BEING PULLED FOR TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT LINGERS THROUGH MONDAY...LACKING STRONG FORCING...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE APPEARS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS
STRONG WAA KICKS OFF FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE JUST TO
THE SOUTH. THIS LEADS TO POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDER EVENT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
DIFFERENT ON TRACK AND TIMING TO BE SURE...BUT BOTH OFFER STRONG
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE 00Z ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS A SIMILAR LOW TO
WHAT JUST OCCURRED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TIME WILL TELL..BUT IN
ANY CASE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE RETAINED FOR THESE
PERIODS.  FOLLOWING ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITION THURSDAY...THE
PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN INDICATED BY BOTH GFS/EC BRINGS ANOTHER
SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM INTO THE MIDWEST BY FRIDAY. ACTIVE SPRING
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THE RULE TO FINISH OUT APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

MVFR CIGS SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR CONDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR STEPHENSON.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCCLURE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE



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