Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 191158 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
655 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

PASSING DISTURBANCE WITH WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE/FRONT BRINGING IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FROM PLAINS FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS
OF WARM BUT QUIET WEATHER. UPSTREAM ENERGY SUPPORTS HEAT BUILDING IN
SOUTH PLAINS COUPLED WITH MOISTURE FROM SW US MONSOON TO ALLOW
FOR LOTS OF HEAT AND INCREASED RISK OF STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. THIS PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE THE WARMEST SO FAR THIS
SEASON FOR OUR ABNORMALLY COOL SUMMER. LIKELY CID AND BRL WILL
RECEIVE THEIR FIRST HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE 90S FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE (VERY GOOD) WITH
LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. FOG LATE TONIGHT MAY NEED TO
INCREASED MAIN QUESTION.

TODAY,..PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
BY MID DAY AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND DEWPOINTS MOSTLY
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR A STORM FAR SE/S SECTIONS LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO PULL AS
BOUNDARY SLIDES EAST.

TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT PATCHY FOG FORMATION
AND POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG THAT MAY BE DENSE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
CONSIDER AS DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
MINS IN FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH FOG MAY NEED LOWERING A FEW DEGREES
WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER VALLEY/S POSSIBLE FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO PONDER IF GET DENSE FOG. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN FAR SW SECTIONS WITH WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP OR MOVE
IN AFTER 3 TO 4 AM...POSSIBLY EVEN LATER TOWARD SUNRISE.  NICHOLS

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACRS THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROF ENERGY ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NW PLAINS...THERE MAY BE A SUPPRESSIONAL COMPONENT TO ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TRYING TO FESTER AROUND LLVL RETREATING WARM
FRONT ON WED. FEATURE MAY TRY TO PUSH TO I80 BY WED EVENING...BUT
WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OR SO
OF THE DVN CWA. MOST OF THE AREA PROBABLY WILL BE DRY. ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPS TO PUSH THE UPPER 80S OR EVEN 90 DEGREES.
MOST OF THE 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MAIN MCS FORCING
AND RIDGE RIDING WAVE OR MCV TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD STORM
COMPLEX TO THE NORTH ACRS THE DAKOTAS...MN INTO WI WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING...A FURTHER NORTH TREND FROM LAST NIGHT/S RUNS. BUT
SECONDARY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FORCING WING TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACRS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA/THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OR
SO OF THE CWA/ ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT. ELEVATED THTA-E PLUME
BEING ADVECTED UP ACRS THIS BOUNDARY SUPPORTS SOME AREAS RECEIVING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY MID THU MORNING. POTENTIAL OF AN ELEVATED
HAILER AS WELL BEFORE FULLER VERTICAL COLUMN SATURATION TAKES PLACE
BY THU AM. AS THE WING OF CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY
LATE THU MORNING...THE TAP INTO THE BUILDING THERMAL DOME STARTS TO
TAKE PLACE. SOUTH OF ANY LINGERING DEBRIS AND AFTERNOON CLEAR
OUT...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S COULD BE WIDESPREAD BY MID/LATE THU
AFTERNOON. OF COURSE IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE OVERDOING NORTHWARD
FRONTAL PUSH AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFICATION UP THE MID TO UPPER
MS RVR VALLEY REGION WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY...THESE TEMPS WILL BE
TOO WARM AND STRONG AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAY FIRE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA...NOT TO THE NORTH ACRS MN AND WI LIKE THE
CURRENT SOLUTIONS INDICATE. NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 THU AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER NORTH
ADJUSTMENT. RING OF FIRE AROUND HEAT DOME SETS UP ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AN GRT LKS FOR FRI...IT APPEARS NOW THAT BULK OF THE CWA TO
BE ENGULFED IN THE WARM DOME AND JUST SOUTH OF ACTION ZONE/MCS
TRACK. BUT TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE MODELS
BEING TOO FAR NORTH WITH IDEAL 19 TO 23C H85 MB THERMAL MCS TRACK
WARRANT AT LEAST LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS THROUGH SAT MORNING. IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THERMAL RIDGE PLACEMENT...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL OF MANY MID 90S OR EVEN WARMER HIGH TEMPS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA FRI AND THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. IF SFC DPTS CAN
APPROACH THE MID 70S...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL PUSH THE 105 OR
WARMER RANGE AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST RING
OF FIRE PATTERN TO PERSIST/REMAIN BLOCKED ACRS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...BEFORE A PATTERN BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER
JET ENERGY INFLUX AND TROFFINESS DIGGING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND
ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HOT TEMPS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS OR COMPLEXES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AREA FOR SAT...POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. COOL FRONTAL PUSH FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MON
INTO TUE MAY BRING ABOUT MORE PRECIP CHANCES.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...IFR CONDITIONS AT DBQ SHOULD
DISPERSE BY 19/14Z. THEN...FAIR SKIES WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 7-15 KTS
UNTIL 20/00Z. AFTER 20/01Z...CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BY 20/09Z AT ALL THE
TERMINALS IN 2-5 MILES IN FOG...POSSIBLE BELOW A MILE TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS



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