Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 301137
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
637 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AM AS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS LAST EVE NOW PASSING THROUGH AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DRYING OVERSPREADING THE
AREA IN ITS WAKE. DECREASING CLOUDS ALLOWING OPPORTUNITY TO SEE
DEEP ORANGE-RED MOON THE RESULT OF SMOKE FROM ALASKA FOREST FIRES
SHUTTLED OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS MOVING INTO NORTHERN CWA ATTIM BUT CONVERGENCE
MINIMAL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BAND OF CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
DAKOTAS SLIDING SSE ATTENDANT TO WARM MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF
ALBERTA SHORTWAVE CRESTING ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THIS ENERGY WILL
DIVE SE NEXT 24 HRS AND BRING NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH/WEST OF QUAD CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PASS THIS AM WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NW
5-15 MPH. ENOUGH MIXING WITH DRIER NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO DROP
DEWPTS A BIT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WHERE BETTER MIXING
SUGGESTED. AND WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE (PT-MOSUNNY) SHOULD BE DECENT
AND FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 TO NEAR 85.
PRECIP CHANCES CERTAINLY NON ZERO TODAY... BUT DONT SEE A LOT
OF FOCUS WITH BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE PASSING AND DRYING NOTED
ALOFT. IN ADDITION...FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION IN DAKOTAS
TO SLIDE SSE AND SHOULD STAY GENERALLY WEST OF AREA. PERHAPS A
STRAY AIRMASS SHOWER OR STORM (ESPECIALLY SOUTH/EAST) WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE 80S BUT OVERALL ANY COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
15 PERCENT.

TONIGHT... ALBERTA SHORTWAVE TO DIVE E/SE AND APPROACH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
COUPLED WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR SOUTH/WEST WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS WITH FAVORABLE 850 AND 700 MB THERMAL
FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION FAVORING BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY OCCURRING SOUTH/WEST OF THE CWA. NONETHELESS... SIGNAL
IS PRESENT THAT SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF CWA SHOULD BE BRUSHED
BY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVE AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER MO AND THUS
BELIEVE HEAVIEST RAIN AND MOST INTENSE CONVECTION TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST... BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH SOUTHERN CWA FOR ANY HYDRO
IMPACTS SHOULD THIS TRACK OR DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA HAS BEEN SEEING FREQUENT BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN PAST 7-10 DAYS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS STILL SWOLLEN
OR EXPERIENCING FLOODING. ELSEWHERE... EASTERLY FLOW FROM BENEATH
GREAT LAKES RIDGING TO USHER IN DRIER AIR AND MAKE FOR PLEASANT
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT TEMP GRADIENT COOLEST NORTHEAST (MID 50S) TO
WARMEST SOUTHWEST (MID 60S).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON MODELS LATCHING ONTO A DRIER PATTERN COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN JUNE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE POINTED
INTO THE AREA...AND A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS MO. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH AN EAST WIND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO BE
LEANING TOWARDS A DRIER LOOK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS SHOVED SOUTHWARD TO THE MO/AR
BORDER. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BUT A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE WILL RAISE HEIGHTS ON THE 4TH...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ONCE AGAIN
AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. FLOW LOOKS DIFFLUENT ALLOWING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE DVN CWA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS 1-5SM WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
MID MORNING WITH HAZY SKIES RESULTING FROM SMOKE FROM ALASKA AND
CANADA FIRES. STORM SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO SOUTHEAST IA...
NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL. ANTICIPATE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION DUE TO DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AND THIS
COULD BE CLOSE TO BRL TERMINAL SO HAVE KEPT MENTION ONLY AT
PROB30 ATTIM. WINDS TO BECOME N/NW 5-15 KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WHILE TURNING EASTERLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05



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