Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 252003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
303 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

18Z surface data has high pressure across the upper Midwest and
Plains with a frontal boundary from the Ohio Valley into the
southern Plains. Dew points were in the 60s from the Great Lakes
into the northern Plains with 70s from the Ohio Valley into the
central Plains on south.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the area late this
afternoon and through Tuesday as high pressure moves through the
Midwest. Light winds, clear skies, and recent rainfall should allow
patchy fog to develop late tonight and continue through sunrise

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Northwest flow aloft and
surface high pressure should bring a dry period along with near
normal temperatures and humidity, for late July. We have chance pops
for Wednesday night but the latest model runs have backed off on any
rain, especially the ECMWF. Later shifts may be able to remove pops.

Thursday through Saturday: A significant upper trough in the
northwest flow arrives, especially Thursday into Thursday night.
This should bring a decent round of showers and thunderstorms.
However, moisture transport is weak and instability doesn`t appear
to be too great so severe weather threat looks low. Friday and
Saturday look drier and cooler compared to consensus models.

Early next week: Low confidence as the ECMWF is somewhat cooler
compared to the GFS with the heat dome returning to the Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

VFR conditions will be seen through 06z/26 as high pressure builds
into the Midwest. After 06z/26 light winds and clear skies are
expected to result in patchy fog with MVFR conditions developing.
Although not included in the 18z TAFs, the potential does exist
for IFR or even LIFR conditions developing prior to sunrise due
to radiational fog. After 12z/26 conditions will slowly improve
back to VFR.


.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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