Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FGUS73 KDVN 192130
ESFDVN
IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-
115-139-163-177-183-ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177-
187-195-MOC045-199-192130-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
0330 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE QUAD CITIES
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF EASTERN
IOWA...NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ITS TRIBUTARIES FROM BELOW GUTTENBERG LD10 IOWA TO BELOW GREGORY
LANDING MISSOURI. THE OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TIME PERIOD FROM LATE
FEBRUARY THROUGH LATE MAY.

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS A STATISTICAL LOOK AT THE RISK FOR
FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT AND NORMAL SPRING THAWING CONDITIONS.
THESE VALUES DO NOT REFLECT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS.
THE OUTLOOK ASSUMES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE OUTLOOK TIME PERIOD. IF TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ARE NOT NEAR NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL RISK OF FLOODING
MAY DIFFER FROM WHAT THE OUTLOOK CURRENTLY INDICATES.

...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RISK OF SPRING FLOODING FOR THE
ROCK RIVER AND PECATONICA RIVER IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

...THE SPRING FLOOD RISK FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS BELOW NORMAL
FROM NEAR DUBUQUE IA DOWNSTREAM TO NEW BOSTON IL...AND CLOSE TO
NORMAL FROM NEAR KEITHSBURG IL TO GREGORY LANDING MO.

...THE SPRING FLOOD RISK FOR THE EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEASTERN
MISSOURI TRIBUTARY RIVERS IS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.

THE WIDESPREAD LACK OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AND CURRENT
SNOWPACK CONDITIONS THAT ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI WATERSHED...IS INDICATING A LOW LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD SPRING FLOODING FROM SNOWMELT RUNOFF.

A BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK...BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
AND SEASONAL FROST DEPTHS ALL SUPPORT A LOW RISK OF SPRING SNOWMELT
FLOODING. ANY SPRING FLOODING THAT OCCURS WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
SPRING RAIN EVENTS AT THIS TIME.

STILL A FACTOR TO WATCH IS THE FROST DEPTH ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. THE FROZEN SOILS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS MAY INTERFERE WITH THE ABSORPTION
OF SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL AND INCREASE THE RATE OF RUNOFF. ON THE
OTHER HAND...A SLOW AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARMING TEMPERATURES
WOULD ALLOW SNOWMELT TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOIL AND AID IN
THE THAWING PROCESS.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID  PERIOD: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DUBUQUE LD11        16.0   17.0   20.5 :  21   41   15   32   <5    9
DUBUQUE             17.0   18.0   21.5 :  23   49   18   40    7    9
BELLEVUE LD12       17.0   18.0   20.0 :  15   30   10   18   <5    9
FULTON LD13         16.0   18.0   20.0 :  21   50   13   24    6    9
CAMANCHE            17.0   18.5   20.5 :  18   40   15   29    7    9
LECLAIRE LD14       11.0   12.0   13.5 :  20   46   15   30    7   12
ROCK ISLAND LD15    15.0   16.0   18.0 :  29   55   21   46   10   16
ILL. CITY LD16      15.0   16.0   18.0 :  23   53   21   44    9   18
MUSCATINE           16.0   18.0   20.0 :  35   56   21   44    7   16
NEW BOSTON LD17     15.0   16.5   18.5 :  35   58   21   47   15   23
KEITHSBURG          14.0   15.5   17.0 :  38   58   26   46   15   23
GLADSTONE LD18      10.0   12.0   14.0 :  40   58   23   44   13   21
BURLINGTON          15.0   16.5   18.0 :  38   58   24   44   15   24
KEOKUK LD19         16.0   17.5   19.0 :  18   32   10   23    9    9
GREGORY LANDING     15.0   18.0   25.0 :  49   61   24   36   <5   <5
:MAQUOKETA RIVER
MANCHESTER HWY 20   14.0   17.0   20.0 :  13   16    9   10   <5   <5
MAQUOKETA           24.0   26.0   28.5 :  32   20   23   13   10   <5
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER
INDEPENDENCE        12.0   13.0   15.0 :   7   12    6    6   <5   <5
ANAMOSA SHAW RD     14.0   15.5   19.0 :  13   26   12   18    6    6
DE WITT             11.0   11.5   12.5 :  66   64   53   60   20   27
:CEDAR RIVER
VINTON              15.0   18.0   19.0 :  12   20   <5    6   <5   <5
CEDAR RAPIDS        12.0   14.0   16.0 :  15   26   <5   13   <5    6
CONESVILLE          13.0   15.0   16.5 :  43   52   13   24   <5    6
:IOWA RIVER
MARENGO             14.0   15.5   18.5 :  83   72   66   61   10    7
IOWA CITY           22.0   23.0   25.0 :  <5    7   <5    6   <5   <5
LONE TREE           15.0   16.5   18.0 :  20   23    9   13   <5    7
COLUMBUS JCT        19.0   22.0   23.0 :  41   52   15   20   13   12
WAPELLO             20.0   22.0   25.0 :  58   60   26   44   13   10
:ENGLISH RIVER
KALONA              14.0   16.0   18.0 :  60   52   30   30   13   13
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER
SIGOURNEY           16.0   18.0   21.0 :  66   56   44   38    9   10
:SKUNK RIVER
AUGUSTA             15.0   17.0   20.0 :  46   38   26   29   13   10
:DES MOINES RIVER
KEOSAUQUA           22.0   25.0   27.0 :   7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
ST FRANCISVILLE     18.0   22.0   25.0 :  63   46   12    9   <5   <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
FREEPORT            13.0   14.0   16.0 :  36   40   23   21   <5   <5
:ROCK RIVER
COMO                10.0   11.0   12.0 :  12   16    6   12   <5    9
JOSLIN              12.0   14.0   16.5 :  53   47   24   23    6   12
MOLINE              12.0   13.0   14.0 :  53   47   32   27   13   21
:GREEN RIVER
GENESEO             15.0   16.5   18.0 :  18   21   12   16    6    7
:LA MOINE RIVER
COLMAR              20.0   22.0   24.0 :  67   61   49   41   21   18
:ILLINOIS RIVER
LA SALLE            20.0   27.0   31.0 :  87   67   24   18    6   <5
HENRY               23.0   24.0   31.0 :  70   53   60   43   <5   <5
:FOX RIVER
WAYLAND             15.0   18.0   20.0 :  30   21    7    9   <5   <5


LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DUBUQUE LD11          8.5    9.4   10.7   12.8   15.0   18.9   20.7
DUBUQUE              10.6   11.3   12.5   14.2   16.7   20.6   22.2
BELLEVUE LD12         9.3   10.0   11.3   12.7   14.7   18.3   20.1
FULTON LD13           8.9    9.7   11.1   13.0   15.3   18.8   20.5
CAMANCHE             11.3   11.8   12.7   14.0   15.9   19.6   21.6
LECLAIRE LD14         6.9    7.5    8.2    9.2   10.4   13.2   15.1
ROCK ISLAND LD15      9.5   10.3   11.2   12.7   15.2   18.2   20.0
ILL. CITY LD16        8.1    9.0   10.6   12.4   15.0   18.0   20.3
MUSCATINE             9.9   10.8   12.2   13.9   16.7   19.9   21.6
NEW BOSTON LD17       9.7   10.8   12.2   13.7   16.0   19.3   21.2
KEITHSBURG           10.5   10.7   12.2   13.3   15.5   18.1   19.7
GLADSTONE LD18        6.1    6.3    8.2    9.3   11.8   14.6   16.6
BURLINGTON           11.6   11.8   13.2   14.3   16.8   19.3   20.9
KEOKUK LD19           8.0    8.2   10.2   11.6   15.0   18.7   20.7
GREGORY LANDING      10.2   10.8   12.9   14.9   18.2   21.1   23.2
:MAQUOKETA RIVER
MANCHESTER HWY 20     6.0    6.5    7.2    8.4   10.5   17.3   19.6
MAQUOKETA            13.1   14.0   17.8   20.7   24.9   29.3   30.2
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER
INDEPENDENCE          5.8    6.1    6.6    7.3    8.4   11.3   16.4
ANAMOSA SHAW RD       7.4    8.1    9.2   11.1   12.8   17.2   21.8
DE WITT               8.8    9.4   10.6   11.7   12.3   13.0   13.2
:CEDAR RIVER
VINTON                7.4    7.9    8.9   10.9   12.7   15.5   17.2
CEDAR RAPIDS          5.9    6.3    6.7    8.2   10.2   13.4   16.1
CONESVILLE            9.8   10.2   11.3   12.5   14.7   15.7   16.6
:IOWA RIVER
MARENGO              11.8   13.5   15.1   16.2   17.2   18.7   18.9
IOWA CITY            14.5   15.8   17.3   19.1   19.6   19.7   23.2
LONE TREE            10.0   10.6   11.9   14.0   14.8   16.5   18.1
COLUMBUS JCT         14.6   15.7   16.9   18.3   20.8   23.7   24.7
WAPELLO              16.5   17.8   19.0   20.8   22.7   25.6   26.4
:ENGLISH RIVER
KALONA               11.4   12.3   13.4   14.7   16.6   18.2   19.1
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER
SIGOURNEY            13.3   13.9   15.4   17.4   19.2   20.9   22.3
:SKUNK RIVER
AUGUSTA               6.6    8.8   11.7   14.6   17.3   20.9   22.4
:DES MOINES RIVER
KEOSAUQUA            15.2   16.8   18.1   19.3   20.3   21.9   23.0
ST FRANCISVILLE      13.4   15.5   17.2   18.7   20.6   22.3   24.1
:PECATONICA RIVER
FREEPORT              6.9    7.4    8.6   12.5   13.7   15.0   15.4
:ROCK RIVER
COMO                  5.2    5.4    5.8    7.3    9.0   10.5   13.2
JOSLIN                8.9    9.1   10.4   12.5   14.0   15.8   19.1
MOLINE               10.2   10.3   10.9   12.2   13.5   14.7   17.7
:GREEN RIVER
GENESEO               6.1    7.3    9.7   11.5   13.9   17.2   19.8
:LA MOINE RIVER
COLMAR               12.5   15.5   18.8   22.0   23.7   25.3   25.6
:ILLINOIS RIVER
LA SALLE             18.2   19.5   22.5   23.9   27.2   30.1   32.0
HENRY                19.2   20.3   22.6   24.5   26.2   27.5   30.0
:FOX RIVER
WAYLAND               7.8    8.3   11.3   13.1   16.0   17.8   18.9

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DUBUQUE LD11          4.2    4.2    4.2    4.1    4.1    3.8    3.6
DUBUQUE               7.3    7.3    7.3    7.3    7.2    7.1    7.0
BELLEVUE LD12         3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.2    3.1
FULTON LD13           4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.2    4.1    4.0
CAMANCHE              8.8    8.8    8.8    8.8    8.8    8.7    8.7
LECLAIRE LD14         4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.3    4.3
ROCK ISLAND LD15      4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    3.9    3.8
ILL. CITY LD16        3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3
MUSCATINE             5.8    5.8    5.8    5.8    5.8    5.7    5.7
NEW BOSTON LD17       3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.0
KEITHSBURG            5.4    5.4    5.4    5.4    5.3    5.3    5.3
GLADSTONE LD18        0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.9    0.8    0.8
BURLINGTON            7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.5    7.4    7.4
KEOKUK LD19           2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.3
GREGORY LANDING       6.3    6.3    6.2    6.2    6.2    6.2    6.2
:MAQUOKETA RIVER
MANCHESTER HWY 20     3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6
MAQUOKETA            10.0   10.0   10.0   10.0    9.9    9.9    9.9
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER
INDEPENDENCE          4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6
ANAMOSA SHAW RD       4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9
DE WITT               5.0    5.0    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.9    4.9
:CEDAR RIVER
VINTON                1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8
CEDAR RAPIDS          3.3    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.2
CONESVILLE            5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.2    5.2
:IOWA RIVER
MARENGO               6.1    6.1    6.0    6.0    6.0    5.9    5.9
IOWA CITY            10.5   10.5   10.5   10.1    9.5    9.2    9.2
LONE TREE             4.5    4.5    4.5    4.4    3.7    3.2    3.1
COLUMBUS JCT          9.3    9.3    9.3    9.2    9.2    9.0    8.9
WAPELLO              11.1   11.0   11.0   11.0   10.9   10.7   10.6
:ENGLISH RIVER
KALONA                4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.5    4.4    4.4
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER
SIGOURNEY             4.3    4.3    4.3    4.3    4.2    4.1    4.0
:SKUNK RIVER
AUGUSTA               1.8    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.5
:DES MOINES RIVER
KEOSAUQUA            10.8   10.8   10.8   10.7   10.7   10.6   10.5
ST FRANCISVILLE       7.2    7.2    7.2    7.1    7.1    7.0    6.8
:PECATONICA RIVER
FREEPORT              3.2    3.2    3.2    3.2    3.1    3.0    3.0
:ROCK RIVER
COMO                  2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.7    2.7
JOSLIN                4.0    4.0    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9
MOLINE                7.7    7.7    7.7    7.7    7.7    7.7    7.7
:GREEN RIVER
GENESEO               2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.5    2.4
:LA MOINE RIVER
COLMAR                3.4    3.3    3.3    3.3    3.2    2.8    2.7
:ILLINOIS RIVER
LA SALLE             11.2   11.1   11.1   11.1   11.0   10.9   10.9
HENRY                14.8   14.7   14.7   14.7   14.7   14.6   14.5
:FOX RIVER
WAYLAND               1.8    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.4    1.3


...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...

THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF STRUCTURES
AND ROADS NEAR STREAMS. SOME EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE AND/OR TRANSFER
OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY.

MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION OF
STRUCTURES AND BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS. USUALLY SIGNIFICANT
EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE AND/OR TRANSFER OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ARE NECESSARY.


...CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 19 2015...

.SNOW DEPTH AND LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT...NEAR NORMAL SNOWFALL
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS WINTER...HOWEVER THE WATER
CONTENT OF THE SNOW HAS BEEN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH 1 INCH OR
LESS OF WATER IN THE SNOW.

THE LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOW COVER RANGES FROM A TRACE TO
AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT IS
GENERALLY NEAR THE 1 INCH RANGE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...WITH ISOLATED 2 INCH AMOUNTS. SIMILAR REPORTS EXIST TO THE
NORTH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WHERE 3 TO 4
INCHES ARE FOUND. THIS IS WELL BELOW HISTORICAL AVERAGES.

.FROST DEPTH...ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER HAVE
RESULTED IN A MODERATING FROST DEPTH. CURRENT FROST DEPTHS BELOW 1
FOOT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET READINGS ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THESE REPORTS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

.SOIL MOISTURE...BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN MINNESOTA
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HOW FAST OR SLOW THE SPRING THAW OCCURS WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE SNOWMELT WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO
THE SOIL. IF THERE IS A SLOW AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES...A GREATER AMOUNT OF THE SNOWMELT COULD INFILTRATE AND
DECREASE THE SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS.

.STREAM LEVELS...STREAMFLOW LEVELS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.


...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

NOW THROUGH THE END OF MARCH...

THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE...NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM NOW TILL
THE END OF MARCH.

FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER GRAPHICS DEPICT EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...NEAR OR BELOW TEMPERATURES. EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO OUTLOOKED FOR THE AREA.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

THIS IS THE FIRST OF TWO SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOKS FOR THE SEASON. UPDATES MAY BE ISSUED DEPENDING ON CHANGES
IN WEATHER AND HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS. THE NEXT SCHEDULED OUTLOOK WILL
BE ON MARCH 5TH 2015.

YOU CAN FIND THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS...WEATHER AND
RIVER INFORMATION ON OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/QUADCITIES .

$$

GROSS










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